Dispelling the myth of the INCENTIVE variant4358
 I'm waiting.... (tapping fingers).Splotches is gettin old! |
Nuffsaid111 private msg quote post Address this user | |
| "flawed data" should not be ignored? Wow - is that like one should plant a live rock or ride a hornless unicorn? As of today I've officially heard everything. |
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DocBrown private msg quote post Address this user | |
Quote:Originally Posted by Magellan Well, no, because incentives are used for so much more than just to get retailers to order more these days. Many incentives are used for promotional purposes. Remember, as you rightly point out, it doesn't cost a publisher much more to run off a couple thousand of each incentive variant, because the only additional cost is in the cover. If a printer runs 125,000 copies of the "guts" with 120,000 of the regular, and 5,000 are the variant, what does it matter to the publisher? The only additional costs are for the variant cover's artwork and the additional plate from the printer, which is negligible. I suspect that, wherever the decision is made (it used to be "circulation", but I'm not sure if they have such depts. anymore), they essentially say "ok, we need thus and such to fill orders, so and so for damages, and then X for promo purposes." Some of the ignorant (jaydogrules in particular) have made the specious argument that "why would a publisher sell these long after the fact for 'pennies on the dollar'...?" A possible answer is because, again, it cost the publisher next to nothing to print them, so even if they're selling them for 75 cents each through Diamond...making 30 cents on each one...they're A. supporting the retailers, who can then turn around and sell them for cover price or so, which is PROMOTIONAL PURPOSES, and B. they're STILL MAKING SOMETHING on those 30 cents a copy, amortized over the entire print run, plus the negligible additional costs for the art and plate, and whatever storage they pay. At the point where they're selling those incentives...months or years after the fact...those books have already paid for themselves, long ago. These numbers are just estimates, by the way, but they're not too far off. I have seen many ratio incentives selling for 75 cents through Diamond. |
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KiloGraham private msg quote post Address this user | |
| @NilesPaine Yes that Ultimate edition was released not even a month ago. I haven't received my CBCS 9.8 graded copy yet and there's already raw copies being bought up by the dude who claimed their would be no raw copies available. Not only raw copies, but artist signed raw copies. I'd be willing to bet those raw copies are also signed by Glapion and Mattina at NYCC then submitted to cgc, because CSA are cgc facilitators. @DocBrown all facilitators using PayPal will require you to add a % to cover PayPal fees, unless you send it friends and family. Even Trinity, a CBCS facilitator, adds the fee. You are right that businesses accepting credit cards cannot pass on the fee they are charged to the buyer (you can actually report companies that do directly to the credit card issuer), but it's not the CC charging the fee it's PayPal. |
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DocBrown private msg quote post Address this user | |
| Now...that all said, that doesn't mean that a LOT of these books don't get trashed and written off by the publisher. They do. I suspect that's where a lot of them went. Look at ASM #667 and #678. Those books, by all rights, should not be rare at all, and yet look at the obscene prices they command, because the supply just doesn't exist. I don't think...at all...it's because they only printed "a case" of each, as people like jaydogrules contends. That would be stupid. I think it's because of circumstances, and either the rest of the books...maybe a couple hundred, maybe a couple thousands...are warehoused somewhere...or they were destroyed due to lack of demand. Time will tell. |
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DocBrown private msg quote post Address this user | |
Quote:Originally Posted by KiloGraham Understood, but 1. using friends and family to pay for merchandise is fraud, and 2. adding the fee may not be illegal, but it's tacky. Yes, I'm well aware that Paypal is charging the fee, because Paypal is acting like a credit card company and processing the payment. It should be a "cost of doing business" and I don't add it to anyone's amount when I sell, and never would. Also, I understand the "3% discount for cash purchases" might appear to be six of one, half a dozen of the other, but it doesn't benefit the merchant. |
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OrbitCityComics private msg quote post Address this user | |
Quote:Originally Posted by DocBrown To some extent, you're correct. Most of the unused "incentive variants" go back to Marvel and DC. They're often used as promotional giveaways, charity auctions and other types of exclusive giveaways. People shouldn't put much stock into the 1:50 or 1:100 variant numbers. Diamond supplies extra copies to super high-volume stores like Midtown, Graham Crackers and Milehigh. Their ratio is virtually cut in half when compared to the average LCS. Diamond reps also give out extra copies to retailers if the retailer achieves certain growth levels within a set period of time. Many of these books are much more common than some believe. The publishers also must commit to a set amount of covers to be printed in order to cover the price of printing. The more covers they order, the less each cover costs. It use to be that the minimum print run had to be 300. Based on many of the "exclusive" covers I've seen, I am starting to believe that number was raised to 500, but that is just my hypothesis based on my observation of seeing most exclusives being advertised no lower than "limited to 500". |
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DocBrown private msg quote post Address this user | |
Quote:Originally Posted by OrbitCityComics See my first post in this thread, as well as subsequent posts. Quote: Originally Posted by OCC With Marvel and DC, I am almost certain the minimum number is 1,000, but that's just an educated guess. I tend to believe you as far as Midtown, GC, and Milehigh is concerned, but do you have any proof? Chuck likes to talk about this stuff a lot, maybe he mentioned something...? I wouldn't doubt it, but I'd like to have proof, if possible. |
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 I had no way of knowing that 9.8 graded copies signed by Adam Hughes weren't what you were looking for.
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drchaos private msg quote post Address this user | |
| So you believe the following books are rare?: Amazing Fantasy 15 Amazing Spider-Man 1 Amazing Spider-Man 1 Incredible Hulk 181 New Mutants 98 There are over 1,000 CGC graded copies of each book. Just because a variant is not as rare as it appears does not mean the demand for it isn't real. |
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Logan510 private msg quote post Address this user | |
Quote:Originally Posted by jimmylinguini As someone who sells books, do you warn potential customers about the alleged scarcity of these variants? Or do you play up the perception so you can sell them for a premium? |
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Logan510 private msg quote post Address this user | |
Quote:Originally Posted by DocBrown Just in case: 1 (888) 221-1161  |
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Studley_Dudley private msg quote post Address this user | |
| Just to be shallow and pedantic, Dreamwave was doing quantity based incentive covers in 2002 which came before 2004 if my math is correct. | ||
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DocBrown private msg quote post Address this user | |
Quote:Originally Posted by Studley_Dudley No problem, thanks for the info. It's certainly possible that that's where DC and Marvel got the idea. I'll have to check my Previews to see if I can find any info about it. I don't think I've ever bought a Dreamwave book new, so I wouldn't have heard about the program until Marvel or DC adopted it, but if Dreamwave was first, that would be the start of it. |
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DocBrown private msg quote post Address this user | |
Quote:Originally Posted by drchaos Who are you talking to? What is this post a response to? |
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| Post 38 • IP flag post | ||
 past performance is no guarantee of future actions.
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KatKomics private msg quote post Address this user | |
| Wow...variants aren't really that rare....demand is falsely driven up by retailers/distributors etc. Print runs aren't exact?! It's almost as though they do these things to try and sell more books.... But Santa is still real yes?? In very few cases I figure something isn't rare if I have a copy...except my latest purchase (only 8 on the CGC register!)...only issue is demand if 9.0 maybe $500 for a 1950's book with Frazetta and Ayers work...I'd say that is much rarer than anything currently on the market and has a better pedigree of artist than the current people..I don't know..let my kid know after I'm gone, we'll see if people still know Frazetta vs Germaphobe??? don't even know their names now, never mind in 50yrs. have to excuse me just finished off a nice Pinot Gris bottle with the wife |
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TommyJasmin private msg quote post Address this user | |
Quote:Originally Posted by moodswing Why don't we take an example to illustrate @DocBrown's point. As he inferred, not the same, but we really have no sure way to know how far off. Ash vs. Army of Darkness #1 Very recent book, Dynamite Entertainment Diamond Orders total : 8,300 This is pretty low - this book was definitely not in the top 200 comics that month. There were four regular covers offered, as well as retailer incentive covers of ratios: 1:10 1:20 1:30 and 1:40 First off, let me just say are you kidding me Dynamite Entertainment? You got a book that is not going to break 5 figures and you hype 8 different versions including four tiers of retailer incentive levels? That's a lot of pomp and circumstance for a below-the-fold title. Let's do some back of the napkin estimates. I could do the real math, but it's meaningless anyway, since Doc's points are valid. Assume the 1:40 variant factors in the sum of all regular cover print runs for its ratio. Let's call that 7,000 of the total for Covers A-D. That would mean, if the ratio were enforced over total print run, the person running the press would be told "stop printing at 175 copies for the 1:40 cover". You can't tell me for a second they adhere to this. And I would not be in the least surprised if there are under-the-radar deals that go down where somebody slides a buddy a hundred extra copies of a given book. A lot of people on this forum, if they were running the press, they'd know which book to kick out a few extra hundred 9.8s of. |
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KatKomics private msg quote post Address this user | |
Quote:Originally Posted by TommyJasmin I would even argue it may be near impossible to run and stop the printing presses quick enough to only get that size of print run. These things run at thousands per hour (depending on the press etc as much as 100,000 per hour) Not sure what type of machines they use - certainly not the 30yr old crap my Dad used to work with (never books tough) A few years back there was a guy with an uncut sheet of Wayne Gretzky (yes...I'm Canadian) rookie cards..but an unused version that was ultimately 'destroyed' as they didn't like the photo and re-did it. Guy said you could take home a sheet from the floor if you wanted - so something never released and 'destroyed' but still out there |
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DocBrown private msg quote post Address this user | |
| Yes, Dynamite is the absolute worst offender in terms of variants per issue. Thanks, Nick! |
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Squack private msg quote post Address this user | |
| Just to echo what has already been so eloquently said in my real world experience with one book: Ultimate Spider-Man 112. Advertised to have a 1:100 (may have been less) featuring a goblin with just a white background, it was sure to be the book to surpass the last gimmick proposed in issue 104 and be the issue of 2007. I was not privy to any retailer numbers accept for the Diamond advertised ratio, but as a customer, it built a perception of scarcity with a subsequent need to own. I did not partake of the initial ordering frenzy since my local shop was small and ordered a whopping 8 copies a month, so I considered that book out a reach. Fast forward to the following Heroes Con in June 2008, and what did I see? A dealer specializing in "rare" variants from many companies with literal stacks of them for $5 a pop. And you can guess which variant I saw at least 100 copies in total scattered around his display in thick mounds of at least 5 different heaps. Naturally I bought two, but not before asking where he got these so coveted covers. His reply educated and shocked me in its simplicity: "Comic companies make the content and printers make the comic. Sometimes, more are made and the printers have to do something with them." I put no stock in incentives, either declared or implied, from then on. I still collect variants to this day, but always remember the lesson that that issue of Ultimate Spider-Man taught me and pay the price for that cover as if a pallet or ten of that particular variant is sitting in a warehouse, just waiting to be dropped on the market. |
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det_tobor private msg quote post Address this user | |
| While I really appreciate all the work that's been discussed so far, I am unclear on 1 category...say Borders book store orders a copy of Batman fighting the Vision. As a special, there is a rare cover made that highlights them fighting in front of a Borders store by name. How do these kinds of copies fit in with the scales you're using? |
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I had no way of knowing that 9.8 graded copies signed by Adam Hughes weren't what you were looking for.
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drchaos private msg quote post Address this user | |
Quote:Originally Posted by DocBrown I am talking to everyone piling on to the idea that variants are not rare and somehow worthless. Mostly I am responding to you. |
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shrewbeer private msg quote post Address this user | |
Quote:Originally Posted by Nuffsaid111 I'm assuming you and @docbrown refuse to look at the CGC census, and hope CBCS doesnt release one as well, coz its flawed data, so it should be ignored? Tell me again how the census is akin to a hornless unicorn as well. Flawed or not, to completely ignore data is foolish, and @DocBrown telling people to completely ignore data because its not 100% accurate feels communist. Buyer beware, and be mindful of ALL evidence; not just the evidence that suits your argument. Not that the other points made are not valid. The Variants market IS deceptive, and to some degree fraudulent. But dont go thinking an estimated incentive run of 500 has thousands of extras sitting in a warehouse somewhere. Any extras will hit the market from giveaways or any other of the methods discussed already; if there are too many and the market feels it, the variant becomes worthless. |
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NilesPaine private msg quote post Address this user | |
Quote:Originally Posted by shrewbeer You can watch this literally in real time right now with the Venomverse title and all the "venomized" covers. I wanna say in 2010/2012 there were a couple of venomized covers that a lot of people missed and they go for big $$$ now because they DONT pop up that often. In terms of Venomverse, people are burned out with everything Venom. The covers aren't even that great and 1:50 Duarte cover AND even the 1:100 can be had for $30 and under because the market is saturated with them. In terms of "ONLY Limited to" issues is it a QC issue??? X amount are printed but the others "should have" been destroyed. Does someone at the pressing company or shipping phase say, hmmmm lemme just grab a couple of these guys. I have no clue but I'd be curious to know. |
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Towmater private msg quote post Address this user | |
Quote:Originally Posted by shrewbeer Did you happen to notice that the entire thread is opinion based information? That it is all based upon conjecture and guesswork about what a print run might be for certain publishers? Kind of like standing in front of the Great OZ and having him say to not look behind the curtain, isn't it?   |
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| Post 48 • IP flag post | ||
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I'm waiting.... (tapping fingers). Splotches is gettin old! |
Nuffsaid111 private msg quote post Address this user | |
| @DocBrown great posts! I feel you are spot on with everything imo | ||
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 CBCS broke up with me over Facebook.
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CFP_Comics private msg quote post Address this user | |
Quote:Originally Posted by Towmater Opinion based? I am aghast. |
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Towmater private msg quote post Address this user | |
| @CFP_Comics Kind of "Crazy" isn't it? | ||
| Post 51 • IP flag post | ||
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I'm waiting.... (tapping fingers). Splotches is gettin old! |
Nuffsaid111 private msg quote post Address this user | |
| @shrewbeer I work with statisticians. My comment is purely related to not ignoring flawed data. One can make assumptions and decisions from valid data. If data is found to be flawed, go back to drawing board. That is and was my sole and only point. One cannot make any valid determinations from data that is flawed |
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shrewbeer private msg quote post Address this user | |
Quote:Originally Posted by Nuffsaid111 If you wish to only draw 100% accurate conclusions in life, sure, ignore any non-factual data. Its a bit black and white though isnt it? By that logic, if one were to ignore any flawed print run or incentive data, then one must assume those books are just as common as the regular cover (which they clearly are not), or just pretend they dont exist! Thus my census comparison. ALL of that data is flawed. Do you pretend it doesnt exist? |
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| Post 53 • IP flag post | ||
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I'm waiting.... (tapping fingers). Splotches is gettin old! |
Nuffsaid111 private msg quote post Address this user | |
| @shrewbeer again - when dealing with data as data is defined, it must be valid data in order to make valid conclusions. What you are referring to is called opinion or feeling or some other word/phrase that escapes me. As to the rest of your points about print runs or whatever point... they're fine. But they're your opinions based on your observations, perspective, etc... | ||
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shrewbeer private msg quote post Address this user | |
Quote:Originally Posted by Nuffsaid111 Correct, any conclusions not derived from accurate data are opinions. My point is just that DB instructing to ignore the data completely is foolish. Yes, one cannot derive an accurate conclusion; but if you ignore the flawed data completely, you are left with drawing no conclusion/opinion whatsoever. |
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