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Comics Modern AgeQuestions

DKIII Master Race #7 1:500 Jim Lee Variant2218

Collector DocBrown private msg quote post Address this user
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kav
Wrong again. If you stuck to key issues and GA, comics would easily outperform stocks. And thats a no brainer. Don't buy fish police, buy AF15, GA caps, batman, etc etc etc. Your argument is if you just bought random comics you'd lose money. But no one with any knowledge of comics would do that.


Quote:
Originally Posted by Kav
As far as 'if you know what you're doing' that's a self fulfilling statement. If it doesn't work you just say, well he didn't know what he was doing. You could say the same thing about gambling. 'You can win on slots IF you know what you're doing'.


These are great examples of someone who doesn't know comics, doesn't know the history of comics, and certainly doesn't know the history of the comics market, but feels perfectly free to speak in ignorance anyways.

The real danger is that comments like these sound reasonable, especially to people who also don't know the history of the comics market. They make sense, on the surface, but once you dig a little deeper, and apply even just basic logic, you start to find out all sorts of things, like, for example, the prevalence of restored books being sold as unrestored, for unrestored prices, back before CGC, especially Golden Age books.

That was a real, serious problem, and a lot of people still haven't made their money back on bad purchases in the 90's.

Is he aware, for example, that Silver Age keys declined in price, twice...? First in the early to mid 80's, and then again in the late 90's...? No.

Is he aware, for example, of the great Silver Age suck of 1987-1989, wherein high grade examples of ANY Silver Age books vanished from the market, making them completely unavailable to the market for nearly two more decades, before they finally started showing up in CGC slabs? No.

Is he aware, for example, that during the Black & White craze of 1986, Fish Police was one of the HOTTEST books in the country, and that people were gladly willing to pony up $30-$40...in 1986 dollars, mind you, when new comics were 75 cents...for a copy, thinking they had "the next big thing"...? No.

Is he aware, for example, that Howard the Duck #1 was an instant "sellout" across the country in 1976, and people were willing to pay $10-$20...for a 25 cent comic, mind you...within a month or two after it came out, because IT was "the next big thing"...?

Is he aware, for example, that Conan #1 was quite possibly the hottest "new book" of the 70's, and it was a $60 book by the end of the 1970's...where it remained, for essentially the next two decades, flat? No.

Is he aware, for example, that the vast, vast majority of "near mint" or "mint" books are what would today grade at CBCS as 7.0 to 9.0, despite people paying the "near mint" or "mint" prices for them? No.

Is he aware, for example, that the prices for nearly every Silver Age book (and many Golden Age books) were REDUCED substantially between the 1997-1998 Overstreet price guides, because of the ever-widening gap between high grade and lower grade copies, and that people who paid aggressive prices for 8.0 and lower copies didn't see anywhere near the return on their investments? No.

Is he aware, for example, that Golden Age books, from the 70's on, were never available in anything resembling quantity, and most buyers had to simply make do with what was available, making "investment" a dicey venture at best? No.

Is he aware, for example, that if you weren't a dealer, you simply didn't have access to most of the best material in the 70's, 80's, and 90's? No.

Is he aware, for example, that before the internet, buyers often had to travel long distances, at significant expense, just for the chance to buy "investment quality" material? No.

Is he aware, for example, that if you had bought "key Silver and Bronze 9.8s" in the early days of CGC, up until about 2011, you would almost certainly have lost money, sometimes significant amounts of money, and that some books...like Green Lantern #76, X-Men #94, GSXM #1, Hulk #181...the "blue chip" books...have all lost substantial amounts of money in "investment quality grades", by 50% or more, as a consequence of the census? No.

These, and many other things, are what this person doesn't know, but he speaks to you as if he does, and feels free to challenge anyone about things he doesn't know.

Like I said...be very, very careful about the information you get, and from whom. Test everything, check everything, and know that there are going to be people out there who don't have a clue what they're talking about, and will present no data or evidence to support what they're saying, but think nothing of saying it anyways.

As far as the "if you know what you're doing"...comparing the CPR business, which has made many people much money because they...watch me now...knew what they are doing to a machine that is programmed to make everyone lose over time, is, of course, patently absurd.

That's like saying "well, you can't be successful at real estate, even IF you know what you're doing"...or "you can't be successful at the stock market, even IF you know what you're doing."

Are there risks? Obviously. Life has risks. That doesn't mean people who know what they're doing, who know what to look for, and who have put in the time and effort to learn, is the same thing as "playing the slots."

Be diligent, folks. Learn, read everything you get your hands on, and be a smart buyer AND seller.
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Collector Kav private msg quote post Address this user
WOW tldr...
Post 102 IP   flag post
Collector Kav private msg quote post Address this user
Be wary if someone rebuts your simple points with like 20 other points each of which would need a separate rebuttal and then each of those rebuttals would get a 20 point response and there's just no way to keep rebutting that stuff. Overwhelming your opponent in a debate with endless multiple points may work somewhere but I never bite when someone has to resort to that tactic.
Post 103 IP   flag post
Collector Kav private msg quote post Address this user
Doc you've been typing for a while I'm getting scared!
Post 104 IP   flag post
Collector Kav private msg quote post Address this user
I SURRENDER!!!
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Collector DocBrown private msg quote post Address this user
Here's a great example of a "blue chip investment" that failed spectacularly: Avengers #4, 9.6. Now, if there's a Silver Age key that isn't FF #1 or AF #15, it's Avengers #4. It's been desirable since the Silver Age, and it's always been a key book. Classic mid-Silver key, and in "investment quality" 9.6.

There are currently 22 copies of this book in 9.6 on the census. There are only 3 9.8s, which makes it essentially uncollectable.

22 isn't much to choose from, either, but let's use that example. There was a single sale of this book back in 2004 for $17,500. At that time, there were only 5 9.6s on the census, and no 9.8s. Information found here:

http://www.gregholland.com/cgc/search/comicid/119

Another copy in this grade didn't sell publicly for six more years, in 2010. That copy sold for an astonishing $64,000. The next copy sold in 2011 for $62,501, and then that second copy sold for $69,500 about 7 months later in Mar, 2012.

But after that, things get a little bleak.

The next copy to sell after that, in 11/12, is the Pacific Coast copy, which sells for $50,788...more than $18,000 off its record high set 8 months earlier. After that, it's mostly downhill, with a $23,900, $40,000, and finally a $19,120 sale, all in 2013. The book doesn't appear again until 2015, with two sales that year at $33,500, and finally the last sale at $19,718.

Obviously, the people who bought at the top of the market aren't likely to see prices north of $60,000 for a very long time, if ever inflation-adjusted.

Were those "good investments"? Key, high grade, slabbed, Silver Age Marvels.

Now...if you had timed the market...which is something that is very, very difficult to do...and you bought one of those 5 copies for around that $17,000 price, and sold it for $60,000...you did well. But the odds of that happening are slim to none...mainly because timing the market is so incredibly difficult, AND...there were only five copies around, and they likely weren't for sale.

You can't invest in what you can't buy.

In fact, it would be five more YEARS before a 6th and 7th copy were slabbed, and even then, if they go to collectors who won't sell, what's the point?

Now....it's very likely that one of those 9.6s has been turned into a 9.8....and if that's the case, then THAT person did very well...but that's a dangerous, dangerous, high stakes game to play, pressing a 9.6 50 year old book. So many things could happen, and your tens of thousands of dollars can vanish in a puff of smoke. Eeek.

However, the vast majority of 9.6s are stuck at 9.6, forever.

Even if you'd bought that first copy...and only one person could have...the price now stands at around $20,000 on a $17,500 investment. If you'd put that same money, and just tracked the S&P 500....you'd have about $49,175 today.
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Collector Kav private msg quote post Address this user
I was collecting in the mid 70s and LCS had plenty of books like ASM in the #10-#100's and likewise FF Avengers X men etc. My brother bought Avengers 1 for $35...if you had just bought up all these books as they came in I'm sure you could beat standard and poor.
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Collector slym2none private msg quote post Address this user


I love it when someone points out many examples to back up their point and someone else yells "tl;dr". It goes to show who has their *edit* together and who does not.
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COLLECTOR Towmater private msg quote post Address this user
Quote:
Originally Posted by slym2none


I love it when someone points out many examples to back up their point and someone else yells "tl;dr". It goes to show who has their *edit* together and who does not.


Couldn’t agree more. When faced with a wall of words that attempt to relay a poster’s point(s) I generally wish that they could be more like President Lincoln. One of the most important and powerful speeches in American history had a length of less than 300 words.
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Collector OrbitCityComics private msg quote post Address this user
This is the last I am going to say on this subject.

A lot of what you stated Doc goes back to what I said earlier. We are going to disagree on the "why" it happened.

Of course there was a major drop in prices in the late '90s. Every, and I emphasise EVERY, book was over prices throughout the '90s. When that bubble burst it brought down the entire market. People sitting on their stack of Spawn #1s suddenly found themselves with paper that was more worthless than a roll of toilet paper.

To compare it to the major stocks, the great recession brought down stocks that had nothing to do with banking, they just happened to be in the wrong place at the wrong time and ended up as collateral damage.

There was also a glut of new GA and SA books to hit the markets. The amount of pedigrees that were being found doubled in that same time. Supply began to outpace demand, and that's really a bad thing in a niche market like comics. These weren't the only factors; these just happen to be the two biggest from my perspective.

It's not only WHAT book you buy, it's WHEN you buy and at what price.

Variants are sold at a premium price, not cover price. I spent a thousand dollars last week of. Exclusive variants that will never return their investment barring the heavens opening and the almighty shining a light on those books and deeming them the second coming, but I didn't buy those books as investments.

If you manage to buy books at cover price, and it goes up in price, those will return the largest investment for every dollar spent.
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Collector DocBrown private msg quote post Address this user
Quote:
Originally Posted by Towmater
Quote:
Originally Posted by slym2none


I love it when someone points out many examples to back up their point and someone else yells "tl;dr". It goes to show who has their *edit* together and who does not.


Couldn’t agree more. When faced with a wall of words that attempt to relay a poster’s point(s) I generally wish that they could be more like President Lincoln. One of the most important and powerful speeches in American history had a length of less than 300 words.


It would be very much appreciated if you would stop trying to instigate disruption and conflict by endlessly complaining about the "length" of posts. The post you're complaining about is only 870 words. That's a little more than 1/3 the word count of this single Wikipedia article about Action Comics #1:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Action_Comics_1

In this "I will choose to misunderstand any way I can" society, it is necessary to make sure what is said can't be "misinterpreted", and that requires words...sometimes a lot of them. If you find the information boring or irrelevant, that's your choice, but endlessly complaining about it is just instigating disruption.

Please stop. Thank you.
Post 111 IP   flag post
COLLECTOR Towmater private msg quote post Address this user
Quote:
Originally Posted by DocBrown
Quote:
Originally Posted by Towmater


Couldn’t agree more. When faced with a wall of words that attempt to relay a poster’s point(s) I generally wish that they could be more like President Lincoln. One of the most important and powerful speeches in American history had a length of less than 300 words.


It would be very much appreciated if you would stop trying to instigate disruption and conflict by endlessly complaining about the "length" of posts. The post you're complaining about is only 870 words. That's a little more than 1/3 the word count of this single Wikipedia article about Action Comics #1:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Action_Comics_1

In this "I will choose to misunderstand any way I can" society, it is necessary to make sure what is said can't be "misinterpreted", and that requires words...sometimes a lot of them. If you find the information boring or irrelevant, that's your choice, but endlessly complaining about it is just instigating disruption.

Please stop. Thank you.


RMA, everything posted on the forum isn't in reference to you. I did not quote your post to make mine a response to it. My view was and is a general message about walls of text.

Glad I could clear that up for you.
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