DKIII Master Race #7 1:500 Jim Lee Variant 2218

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Quote:

Originally Posted by OrbitCityComics
Quote:
Originally Posted by DocBrown
Quote:
Originally Posted by OrbitCityComics
I can prove that entire statement false with you doing one action.

I have a masters in Macro Economics, if you believe your statement to be true, there is currently a 9.6 up for $2500 and by the pics it had a small crease that can be pressed out.

If you truly believe everything you typed to be true, then buy the comic and have the crease removed and put it up on eBay at no reserve.

If I truly believe something I will put my money where my mouth is every time.

I'm not sure how a single example proves my entire statement false, but let's go with it for the sake of the argument:

For my entire statement to be false, you need to prove it doesn't work 100% of the time. I only need to demonstrate that it works once, and my statement is validated.

But let's consider this specific example: that's not how it works (although this 9.6 for $2500 looks like a good deal at the moment.)

First, you have to be able to inspect the book in person. You can't make decisions based on scans, and it is incredibly rude and tacky to buy a book on eBay, inspect it, then return it just because you decide it's not worth the risk.

Second, I only see a single CBCS 9.6 on eBay, and it's priced at $3,000, not $2,500...and that color break at the top of the spine alone is enough to keep this book out of 9.8. Is that the one you're referring to? If not, please direct me to the copy you're referring to.

Last, in case I didn't make myself clear before, this is a risk. There's no guarantee. However...if you know what you're doing, you can do quite well at it, especially in the nosebleed grades. But it's still a risk. You can spend a lot of money chasing down a dead end. I not only believe everything I typed to be true (or why would I post it?), I've done it. Many times. And so have dozens, if not hundreds, if not thousands of other people.

I can do it with anything.

Again...for what you're saying to be true, it has to be true for everything, not just "anything." I only need to prove it works once, and what I've said is validated.

Here's an example:

As a universal 9.4, that book was worth maybe $30-$35.

As a 9.8 (signed by Stan, no less), it's probably a $300+ book.

That's just one example.

Quote:

Originally Posted by OCC

If you believe what you say, then there is zero risk. A no reserve auction will give you the true value of the book.

No, it will give you the value of the book at that time, with those people who happened to be around to bid.

And with auctions not being supported by eBay for a very long time now, the odds for selling an item for less than what someone would otherwise be willing to pay for it (which is the actual measure of value) are greatly increased.

In auctions, particularly on eBay, the value of the item isn't what the top bidder is willing to pay for it...but what the second highest bidder is.

The top bidder may have been willing to pay 25% more, 50% more, 200% more...no one knows, because that information is known only to the high bidder, and whomever he/she chooses to reveal it to.

But auction mechanics aside, the real value of anything is what someone is willing to pay for it, and literally millions of listings over the last 15 years on eBay have proven that people are willing to pay more for an item outright than it usually ends at auction.

I believe what I say, because I have hundreds, if not thousands, of pieces of evidence that prove it, but what you're trying to equate it to (listing in an auction) has nothing to do with the reality of cracking, pressing, re-submitting, and ending up with a higher grade, and a higher value.

I don't know how else to explain this to you; it's hardly a secret. People have been doing this for a very, very long time.

Quote:

Originally Posted by OCC
Put a 9.8 up for a 7 day auction, I'd say the odds of you breaking 3k are about one in ten.

That's an "impossible-to-prove" statement. Where do you come up with those odds?

But for this particular book, I'd say the odds are really 1:1 that you break $3,000 at this point in time for a 9.8, even in a 7 day listing. Again...the last copy just sold a little over a month ago for $4,800. $3,000 is going to be too tempting to too many people to pass up.

And you don't need more than one person to to pay the asking price to prove the point.

Quote:

Originally Posted by OCC
I wouldn't VALUE a 9.8 at more than $1500.

Ok, but you do understand that that's an unrealistic valuation, based on current market dynamics, right?

Just because you wouldn't pay more than $1500, doesn't mean no one else would. In fact, if it were offered to me for $2,000, I'd hand over the cash without thinking about it.

That may change, but for right now, the market for these books in 9.8 is about $3500-$4800. The last three sales of CGC slabs were $4800, $4050, and $3383. Right NOW, the book is worth substantially more than $1500.

8 years ago

Collector 1.84K	1.84K Kav private msg quote post Address this user	plus 1 plus 1 plus 1 0
	I think 'anything' and 'everything' is the same thing.
	8 years ago	Post 77 • IP flag post

Collector 1.48K	1.48K OrbitCityComics private msg quote post Address this user	plus 1 plus 1 plus 1 6
	@DocBrown never mind. We're speaking two totally different languages. I'm speaking of value while you're focusing on sales price.
	8 years ago	Post 78 • IP flag post

Collector 16.89K	16.89K DocBrown private msg quote post Address this user	plus 1 plus 1 plus 1 2
	Quote: Originally Posted by OrbitCityComics @DocBrown never mind. We're speaking two totally different languages. I'm speaking of value while you're focusing on sales price. No problem. Value is established by sales, otherwise there would be no way to value anything, but I think the points have been made fairly well. Thanks for the discussion!
	8 years ago	Post 79 • IP flag post

Collector 1.84K	1.84K Kav private msg quote post Address this user	plus 1 plus 1 plus 1 0
	Value is not always established by sales. Research the Dutch Tulip Bulb crash.
	8 years ago	Post 80 • IP flag post

Collector 1.48K	1.48K OrbitCityComics private msg quote post Address this user	plus 1 plus 1 plus 1 4
	Quote: Originally Posted by Kav Value is not always established by sales. Research the Dutch Tulip Bulb crash. Exactly. Comics are a speculation market. At some point, the price of a comic stabelizes and it's true value is finally determined. Any modern book that is selling more than its cover price is more than likely severely distorted from its actual value.
	8 years ago	Post 81 • IP flag post

Collector 1.84K	1.84K Kav private msg quote post Address this user	plus 1 plus 1 plus 1 3
	I think the problem is Joe is taking a small slice of something and trying to apply it to everything.
	8 years ago	Post 82 • IP flag post

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Quote:

Originally Posted by OrbitCityComics

Exactly. Comics are a speculation market. At some point, the price of a comic stabelizes and it's true value is finally determined.

How long does it take before the price of Batman #608 "stabelizes" (sic)? This book has been around for more than 16 years.

What is anything's "true" value? (The answer is still: what someone will pay for it.)

You said earlier in this thread that this book wasn't "worth" $600 when you bought it, but now you say it's true "value" (in 9.8) is $1500, despite completed sales which are more than double, to more than triple, that figure.

I'll ask again: where do you come up with your "1 in 10" odds that this book wouldn't sell for more than $3,000 in 9.8?

Quote:

Originally Posted by OCC
Any modern book that is selling more than its cover price is more than likely severely distorted from its actual value.

No. That's a bad conclusion, based on someone else's erroneous statement.

What something is worth is what someone is willing to pay for it. That's always been true, throughout the entire history of mankind.

And when a pattern of purchases for similar items in similar condition is established, we call that "Fair Market Value."

What's the Mona Lisa worth?

Don't know; it hasn't been sold since 1520 or so.

But do we have a general idea of what it's worth?

Sure, because we know what similar paintings by similar masters have sold for.

And, since we know that, we can form a reasonable estimation of what it is worth, being the most famous painting in the world...and that worth isn't $3.50.

Still an estimation, true...but a reasonable estimation, based on what other, similar (though obviously lesser) items have sold for.

(Pardon the preposition at the end.)

8 years ago

Collector 1.84K	1.84K Kav private msg quote post Address this user	plus 1 plus 1 plus 1 0
	"What something is worth is what someone is willing to pay for it. That's always been true, throughout the entire history of mankind." Not true- merely read the thread on Chiofolo/Tadano. He paid $200,000 for All Star #3 in 8.5 among many other purchases. Does that mean All Star #3 in 8.5 was 'worth' $200,000? Not even close. Could he have re sold it for $200,000? No. Why? Because it wasn't worth that. http://www.theverge.com/2015/7/22/8870089/texas-comic-book-heist-anthony-chiofalo-tadano
	8 years ago	Post 84 • IP flag post

Collector 1.84K	1.84K Kav private msg quote post Address this user	plus 1 plus 1 plus 1 0
	If things were worth what people paid for it, you could buy a copy of Youngblood #1 for $50,000 and it would then be worth $50,000 and you could put it in your safety deposit box, a safe investment from then forward.
	8 years ago	Post 85 • IP flag post

Collector 1.48K	1.48K OrbitCityComics private msg quote post Address this user	plus 1 plus 1 plus 1 3
	Batman 608 was published in October 2002. During its publication books from the 1970s were just starting to stabilise in price. Currently, books from the '80s are just now starting to stabilise. With all this in mind, we have about another 15 to 20 year wait to see what the true value of this particular book is. The only books that will flout the 30 year rule is books from the 90s. We're, also, sitting on a variant market bubble. Sooner or later all these variants will drop in price. The question now is by how much. The best investments is first print regular copies of books. You're paying cover price and if that issue goes up in value, then based on percentages you will see a much larger return on your investment. Here's a better way to look at it. Let's say you purchased a 9.8 for $1000 and sell it for, and I'll be very generous here, $10,000. You made $10 for every dollar you invested. Now, let's say you buy a regular cover issue at time of release and paid the cover price of $2.25 and sell it for $100 in 9.8 graded. For every dollar invested you would have made just under $45. Which is the better value?
	8 years ago	Post 86 • IP flag post

Collector 1.84K	1.84K Kav private msg quote post Address this user	plus 1 plus 1 plus 1 0
	Quote: Originally Posted by OrbitCityComics Batman 608 was published in October 2002. During its publication books from the 1970s were just starting to stabilise in price. Currently, books from the '80s are just now starting to stabilise. With all this in mind, we have about another 15 to 20 year wait to see what the true value of this particular book is. The only books that will flout the 30 year rule is books from the 90s. We're, also, sitting on a variant market bubble. Sooner or later all these variants will drop in price. The question now is by how much. The best investments is first print regular copies of books. You're paying cover price and if that issue goes up in value, then based on percentages you will see a much larger return on your investment. Here's a better way to look at it. Let's say you purchased a 9.8 for $1000 and sell it for, and I'll be very generous here, $10,000. You made $10 for every dollar you invested. Now, let's say you buy a regular cover issue at time of release and paid the cover price of $2.25 and sell it for $100 in 9.8 graded. For every dollar invested you would have made just under $45. Which is the better value? Agree 100%. I believe the variant glut will go the way of the 'valuable' foil covers of the 90s.
	8 years ago	Post 87 • IP flag post

Collector 1.48K	1.48K OrbitCityComics private msg quote post Address this user	plus 1 plus 1 plus 1 3
	Quote: Originally Posted by Kav Quote: Originally Posted by OrbitCityComics Batman 608 was published in October 2002. During its publication books from the 1970s were just starting to stabilise in price. Currently, books from the '80s are just now starting to stabilise. With all this in mind, we have about another 15 to 20 year wait to see what the true value of this particular book is. The only books that will flout the 30 year rule is books from the 90s. We're, also, sitting on a variant market bubble. Sooner or later all these variants will drop in price. The question now is by how much. The best investments is first print regular copies of books. You're paying cover price and if that issue goes up in value, then based on percentages you will see a much larger return on your investment. Here's a better way to look at it. Let's say you purchased a 9.8 for $1000 and sell it for, and I'll be very generous here, $10,000. You made $10 for every dollar you invested. Now, let's say you buy a regular cover issue at time of release and paid the cover price of $2.25 and sell it for $100 in 9.8 graded. For every dollar invested you would have made just under $45. Which is the better value? Agree 100%. I believe the variant glut will go the way of the 'valuable' foil covers of the 90s. The '90s were over-produced. I would argue that the overwhelming majority (99%) are pretty much worthless. So worthless that the $1 bin is to high a price for them. I do not believe the current variant bubble will burst quite as hard, but most of these variants are going to be worth about half of what they're selling for now. Covers rarely (can not say never since there are exceptions to every rule) determine the value of a book, it's the story inside.
	8 years ago	Post 88 • IP flag post

Collector 1.84K	1.84K Kav private msg quote post Address this user	plus 1 plus 1 plus 1 0
	Quote: Originally Posted by OrbitCityComics Quote: Originally Posted by Kav Quote: Originally Posted by OrbitCityComics Batman 608 was published in October 2002. During its publication books from the 1970s were just starting to stabilise in price. Currently, books from the '80s are just now starting to stabilise. With all this in mind, we have about another 15 to 20 year wait to see what the true value of this particular book is. The only books that will flout the 30 year rule is books from the 90s. We're, also, sitting on a variant market bubble. Sooner or later all these variants will drop in price. The question now is by how much. The best investments is first print regular copies of books. You're paying cover price and if that issue goes up in value, then based on percentages you will see a much larger return on your investment. Here's a better way to look at it. Let's say you purchased a 9.8 for $1000 and sell it for, and I'll be very generous here, $10,000. You made $10 for every dollar you invested. Now, let's say you buy a regular cover issue at time of release and paid the cover price of $2.25 and sell it for $100 in 9.8 graded. For every dollar invested you would have made just under $45. Which is the better value? Agree 100%. I believe the variant glut will go the way of the 'valuable' foil covers of the 90s. The '90s were over-produced. I would argue that the overwhelming majority (99%) are pretty much worthless. So worthless that the $1 bin is to high a price for them. I do not believe the current variant bubble will burst quite as hard, but most of these variants are going to be worth about half of what they're selling for now. Covers rarely (can not say never since there are exceptions to every rule) determine the value of a book, it's the story inside. Before the mid 70s comics were just bought mainly to read. Then comic stores started opening and it became a collectible thing. Publishers boosted sales with a glut of #1 issues-and people bought multiple copies. How much is Starfire #1 worth today? Then in the 90s it was the foil covers-again aimed at collectors greed. Another crash. Now it's the variant glut. Manufactured collectibles never have staying power-you can't buy Franklin Mint and expect to make a killing.
	8 years ago	Post 89 • IP flag post

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Quote:

Originally Posted by OrbitCityComics
Batman 608 was published in October 2002. During its publication books from the 1970s were just starting to stabilise in price. Currently, books from the '80s are just now starting to stabilise.

With all this in mind, we have about another 15 to 20 year wait to see what the true value of this particular book is.

What do you mean by "stabilise" (sic)?

Because books like Tomb of Dracula #10, Werewolf by Night #32, Ms. Marvel #1, House of Secrets #92, Batman #227, and Green Lantern #76, are all worth substantially more than they were in 2002, in just about every grade.

I'm not sure what you mean, then, by "stabilise" (sic).

Quote:

Originally Posted by OCC
The only books that will flout the 30 year rule is books from the 90s.

What is "the 30 year rule"?

Quote:

Originally Posted by OCC
We're, also, sitting on a variant market bubble. Sooner or later all these variants will drop in price. The question now is by how much.

We've been sitting on a variant market bubble since variants went mainstream in the mid-00's. Before then, they were generally special events (particularly at DC and Marvel), and not "every issue has to have one or 47" situations.

As I've said elsewhere. the majority of variants will go down after a certain period of time...but that doesn't mean we are sitting in a "variant market bubble", the way we were in a "Valiant bubble" in early 1993, or a B&W bubble in the mid-80's, or an EC bubble in the early 70's, or a Silver Age Marvel bubble in the early 80's.

Quote:

Originally Posted by OCC
The best investments is first print regular copies of books. You're paying cover price and if that issue goes up in value, then based on percentages you will see a much larger return on your investment.

The best investments are stocks, mutual funds, and the like.

Comic books are terrible investments. If you're buying comic books to invest...especially new comic books...you will almost certainly lose money.

For every "Walking Dead #1"...which only about 10,000 people can "invest" in...there are 100 Noble Causes, or Identity Crises, or Formerly Known As The Justice Leagues, or Superman #205s, or Batman #608s, etc etc etc.

Hindsight is grand, but foresight is rare.

Quote:

Originally Posted by OCC
Here's a better way to look at it.

Let's say you purchased a 9.8 for $1000 and sell it for, and I'll be very generous here, $10,000. You made $10 for every dollar you invested.

Now, let's say you buy a regular cover issue at time of release and paid the cover price of $2.25 and sell it for $100 in 9.8 graded. For every dollar invested you would have made just under $45.

Which is the better value?

Can you sell 100 9.8s for $100 each? Because that's how you would be able to match the results you got from that 1 sale for $10,000.

See, what you're missing is "scalability." If you can't do it over and over again, it's not a good investment.

If I buy 10,000 shares of WMT at $70, and it goes up to $110, every single one of those shares is worth $110.

If I buy 10,000 copies of Random Comic #X for $2.25, and a 9.8 goes to $100, I will NOT be able to sell 10,000 copies...provided I bought 10,000 9.8 copies...for $100 each.

So, great, you bought a single copy for $2.25 and managed to keep it in 9.8 condition...a feat in itself...and you sold it for $100.

Was that before or after grading fees? Shipping? Listing? FVF?

And now that you've sold it, and you have that $60 in your pocket, now what? For every dollar you spent, you actually only got $26.

You have to be able to repeat that process, over and over again, for it to have any meaning.

So...which comics do I buy today for $2.95/$3.95 that I can sell in X years for $100 in 9.8?

8 years ago

Collector 16.89K	16.89K DocBrown private msg quote post Address this user	plus 1 plus 1 plus 1 1
	Quote: Originally Posted by OrbitCityComics Quote: Originally Posted by Kav Quote: Originally Posted by OrbitCityComics Batman 608 was published in October 2002. During its publication books from the 1970s were just starting to stabilise in price. Currently, books from the '80s are just now starting to stabilise. With all this in mind, we have about another 15 to 20 year wait to see what the true value of this particular book is. The only books that will flout the 30 year rule is books from the 90s. We're, also, sitting on a variant market bubble. Sooner or later all these variants will drop in price. The question now is by how much. The best investments is first print regular copies of books. You're paying cover price and if that issue goes up in value, then based on percentages you will see a much larger return on your investment. Here's a better way to look at it. Let's say you purchased a 9.8 for $1000 and sell it for, and I'll be very generous here, $10,000. You made $10 for every dollar you invested. Now, let's say you buy a regular cover issue at time of release and paid the cover price of $2.25 and sell it for $100 in 9.8 graded. For every dollar invested you would have made just under $45. Which is the better value? Agree 100%. I believe the variant glut will go the way of the 'valuable' foil covers of the 90s. The '90s were over-produced. I would argue that the overwhelming majority (99%) are pretty much worthless. So worthless that the $1 bin is to high a price for them. I do not believe the current variant bubble will burst quite as hard, but most of these variants are going to be worth about half of what they're selling for now. Covers rarely (can not say never since there are exceptions to every rule) determine the value of a book, it's the story inside. I only discuss Batman #608 RRP because that was the example you brought up. I'm more than happy to discuss a book like Harbinger #1 (1992), or Walking Dead #1, or Ultimate Spiderman #1, if you'd like. These principles have nothing to do with whether a book is a variant.
	8 years ago	Post 91 • IP flag post

Collector 16.89K	16.89K DocBrown private msg quote post Address this user	plus 1 plus 1 plus 1 1
	Also...be very wary of misinformation being posted as "fact." Fake news, so to speak. Lots of people out there who don't know what they're talking about, but speak as if they do.
	8 years ago	Post 92 • IP flag post

Collector 2.42K	2.42K Logan510 private msg quote post Address this user	plus 1 plus 1 plus 1 6
	Quote: Originally Posted by DocBrown Also...be very wary of misinformation being posted as "fact." Fake news, so to speak. Lots of people out there who don't know what they're talking about, but speak as if they do. Amen to that.
	8 years ago	Post 93 • IP flag post

Collector 1.84K	1.84K Kav private msg quote post Address this user	plus 1 plus 1 plus 1 6
	-And be wary of self-proclaimed 'experts' who shrug off anything posted that doesn't fit their need to be 'right' and 'expert'.
	8 years ago	Post 94 • IP flag post

Collector 1.84K	1.84K Kav private msg quote post Address this user	plus 1 plus 1 plus 1 0
	Quote: Originally Posted by Logan510 Quote: Originally Posted by DocBrown Also...be very wary of misinformation being posted as "fact." Fake news, so to speak. Lots of people out there who don't know what they're talking about, but speak as if they do. Amen to that. lol yep
	8 years ago	Post 95 • IP flag post

Collector 1.48K	1.48K OrbitCityComics private msg quote post Address this user	plus 1 plus 1 plus 1 7
	Comics can be good investments in the short term. 30℅ of my yearly income is from dealing comics. In the long term, modern age comics, except for most of '90s comics, will be worth something. People are correct in saying that the majority of comics will lose value, because they will. This is why I keep two collections, one is my personal collection, the second is my dealing collection. In reference to stocks, when you buy a stock you're not paying what that share is actually worth, you're paying what it could be worth x amount of months or years from now. Amazon rarely turns a profit, in fact it never turned a full year profit until 2004, which was short lived, but its stock was still blue chip. Just like comics, stocks are a speculation market. Economies bust, just like comic bubvles. I do collect variants, in fact I spend obscene amounts of money on them, but I buy them knowing that the majority will never hold that value. What I buy to deal rarely loses money, but again I invest in low end books that hold potential for future value.
	8 years ago	Post 96 • IP flag post

Collector 1.84K	1.84K Kav private msg quote post Address this user	plus 1 plus 1 plus 1 0
	If what you are doing works, and someone is telling you it won't work, just disregard their comments.
	8 years ago	Post 97 • IP flag post

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Quote:

Originally Posted by OrbitCityComics
Comics can be good investments in the short term. 30℅ of my yearly income is from dealing comics.

In the long term, modern age comics, except for most of '90s comics, will be worth something.

That's not something that anyone can say. No one knows what 5, 10, 20 years will bring. No one knows what next year will bring.

Quote:

Originally Posted by OCC
People are correct in saying that the majority of comics will lose value, because they will. This is why I keep two collections, one is my personal collection, the second is my dealing collection.

In reference to stocks, when you buy a stock you're not paying what that share is actually worth, you're paying what it could be worth x amount of months or years from now. Amazon rarely turns a profit, in fact it never turned a full year profit until 2004, which was short lived, but its stock was still blue chip. Just like comics, stocks are a speculation market. Economies bust, just like comic bubvles.

Yes, stocks lose value, too.

However, that wasn't the point. The point is, stocks and mutual funds have been far, far superior investments than comic books. The fact that I even have to type that sentence out is pretty amazing. Comic books are a BAD investment, and they always have been.

Yes, of course there are exceptions, but they are very, very rare. For the people who happened to buy an unrestored Amazing Fantasy #15 that was accurately graded for $1,000 in 1986, there are 1,000 people who bought 10, 20, 50 copies of Fish Police #1. There will always be "the next big thing."

Quote:

Originally Posted by OCC
I do collect variants, in fact I spend obscene amounts of money on them, but I buy them knowing that the majority will never hold that value.

What I buy to deal rarely loses money, but again I invest in low end books that hold potential for future value.

So long as you buy what you like, it's never money wasted. It's when you start telling yourself, and then other people, that these are "surefire investments! Can't lose! These will make money in the long term!" that you (and anyone) will get in trouble.

But we have wandered far afield from the original point of the conversation, which was that you can, in fact, play the CPR game, and do it well, if you know what you're doing.

8 years ago

Collector 1.84K	1.84K Kav private msg quote post Address this user	plus 1 plus 1 plus 1 0
	Wrong again. If you stuck to key issues and GA, comics would easily outperform stocks. And thats a no brainer. Don't buy fish police, buy AF15, GA caps, batman, etc etc etc. Your argument is if you just bought random comics you'd lose money. But no one with any knowledge of comics would do that.
	8 years ago	Post 99 • IP flag post

Collector 1.84K	1.84K Kav private msg quote post Address this user	plus 1 plus 1 plus 1 0
	As far as 'if you know what you're doing' that's a self fulfilling statement. If it doesn't work you just say, well he didn't know what he was doing. You could say the same thing about gambling. 'You can win on slots IF you know what you're doing'.
	8 years ago	Post 100 • IP flag post