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DKIII Master Race #7 1:500 Jim Lee Variant2218

Collector OrbitCityComics private msg quote post Address this user
Take the Batman 608 Jim Lee variant. Originally it was believed that there were less than 200 copies out in the wild. By the end of last year CGC had graded 292 copies.
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Collector DocBrown private msg quote post Address this user
Quote:
Originally Posted by jimmylinguini
Ok I looked into it. Valiant Gold variants were given to retailers based on support of the Valiant Brand.

How that worked out I have no idea.

You can read more about that here but they are 100% variants given to retailers based on their orders, not a ratio based incentive variant. (although there was apparently an issue with the X-O Manowar #1 gold distribution)


That site you source is still repeating the false information that Comichron numbers = print run. They even contradict themselves in the same sentence.

Comichron reports SALES numbers, not PRINT numbers.

That said, however, it is my understanding, from sources at VEI, that Valiant is one of the few companies that prints incentive variants to order. That doesn't mean they release that information...they don't....but they do claim to print the incentives strictly to order.
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Collector DocBrown private msg quote post Address this user
Quote:
Originally Posted by OrbitCityComics
Take the Batman 608 Jim Lee variant. Originally it was believed that there were less than 200 copies out in the wild. By the end of last year CGC had graded 292 copies.


Couple of things...

First, where did the "less than 200 copies" number come from, and when did that number become "accepted"? (Not questioning that that "estimate" was thrown out a lot; I remember it, too. But was that number ever accurate?)

Second, the Batman #608 RRP (I assume that's what you're referring to?) wasn't a retailer incentive...it was given out at Diamond's annual retailer meeting that year.

Third, it is absolutely imperative that people using the census understand that the census doesn't represent actual copies...it represents potential copies.

That means: if there are 292 "grading events" (as they call it on the coin side) that doesn't necessarily mean that there were 292 unique copies graded...with resubmissions, Sig Series, and people not turning in labels (I have about 50 here to turn in), the more the census grows, the more the chances that the number only becomes potential, rather than actual. That is, at MOST there are 292 copies slabbed by CGC, but probably that number is more likely to be in the 200-260 range.

There's just no way to know. That doesn't mean the census is rendered useless...but it's not quite as accurate as the numbers suggest.
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Collector OrbitCityComics private msg quote post Address this user
Quote:
Originally Posted by DocBrown
Quote:
Originally Posted by OrbitCityComics
Take the Batman 608 Jim Lee variant. Originally it was believed that there were less than 200 copies out in the wild. By the end of last year CGC had graded 292 copies.


Couple of things...

First, where did the "less than 200 copies" number come from, and when did that number become "accepted"? (Not questioning that that "estimate" was thrown out a lot; I remember it, too. But was that number ever accurate?)

Second, the Batman #608 RRP (I assume that's what you're referring to?) wasn't a retailer incentive...it was given out at Diamond's annual retailer meeting that year.

Third, it is absolutely imperative that people using the census understand that the census doesn't represent actual copies...it represents potential copies.

That means: if there are 292 "grading events" (as they call it on the coin side) that doesn't necessarily mean that there were 292 unique copies graded...with resubmissions, Sig Series, and people not turning in labels (I have about 50 here to turn in), the more the census grows, the more the chances that the number only becomes potential, rather than actual. That is, at MOST there are 292 copies slabbed by CGC, but probably that number is more likely to be in the 200-260 range.

There's just no way to know. That doesn't mean the census is rendered useless...but it's not quite as accurate as the numbers suggest.


The less than 200 number had floated around for years, including to the point that it was printed in the now defunct Wizard magizine.

I understand your statement about the census, but I am also of the opinion that the census is pretty accurate on a title such as this where even a 9.4 can fetch around 2.5k on the market. I don't see people getting this book regraded in hopes of getting a better grade.
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Collector KiloGraham private msg quote post Address this user
The census also doesn't take into account slabs cracked and not reported back to be removed. So if you have a slab, crack it your self for ss and don't tell them it was graded prior, the same book would be listed twice wouldn't it?
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Collector DocBrown private msg quote post Address this user
Quote:
Originally Posted by OrbitCityComics
Quote:
Originally Posted by DocBrown
Quote:
Originally Posted by OrbitCityComics
Take the Batman 608 Jim Lee variant. Originally it was believed that there were less than 200 copies out in the wild. By the end of last year CGC had graded 292 copies.


Couple of things...

First, where did the "less than 200 copies" number come from, and when did that number become "accepted"? (Not questioning that that "estimate" was thrown out a lot; I remember it, too. But was that number ever accurate?)

Second, the Batman #608 RRP (I assume that's what you're referring to?) wasn't a retailer incentive...it was given out at Diamond's annual retailer meeting that year.

Third, it is absolutely imperative that people using the census understand that the census doesn't represent actual copies...it represents potential copies.

That means: if there are 292 "grading events" (as they call it on the coin side) that doesn't necessarily mean that there were 292 unique copies graded...with resubmissions, Sig Series, and people not turning in labels (I have about 50 here to turn in), the more the census grows, the more the chances that the number only becomes potential, rather than actual. That is, at MOST there are 292 copies slabbed by CGC, but probably that number is more likely to be in the 200-260 range.

There's just no way to know. That doesn't mean the census is rendered useless...but it's not quite as accurate as the numbers suggest.


The less than 200 number had floated around for years, including to the point that it was printed in the now defunct Wizard magizine.


Yes, and that's really my point: no one actually knows where it came from. You and I know that it's floated around for years, but I've never seen anything official on it (and Wizard Magazine isn't official.)

Quote:
Originally Posted by occ
I understand your statement about the census, but I am also of the opinion that the census is pretty accurate on a title such as this where even a 9.4 can fetch around 2.5k on the market. I don't see people getting this book regraded in hopes of getting a better grade.


No, see, that's backwards. It's because the book sells for so much money that the census would be more apt to be inaccurate: people sub and resub to get that bump, because that bump is very much worth it.

The RRP...which CGC erroneously calls the "Retailer Incentive Variant"...has a fairly impressive price difference between 9.4, 9.6, and 9.8. Even if someone were to submit it under the Express tier...and most people, if they're smart, sub it under the Standard tier, and CGC lets it slide...they're still only paying $100 or so for a fairly hefty possible return: in this case, the 9.4s have been selling for as little as $600 just three years ago, while they're up to $1500-$2000 (hard to track prices on this...it's not a book sold very often)...while a 9.8 is potentially worth $3,000-$4,500...with the last sale at $4,800.

(As an aside, I've never seen a 9.4 sell for $2.5k. The last sale was $2,025, in Jan, which beat the previous high by exactly $500.)

That's a pretty substantial difference in price, and well worth the gamble. And that doesn't take into account the blue labels that are cracked out for Sig Series...or the copies that have crossed over to CBCS.

The point is, no one knows, and any guesses as to how many actual copies there are are just that: guesses. Until and if someone was able to physically put their hands on each and every copy that exists...a fairly impossible task...we'll never know if the census is "fairly accurate" (you don't define what that means...does it mean 290 unique copies? 280? 250?) or if a good percentage of those numbers (10-20%) represent resubmissions of the same copies.
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Collector DocBrown private msg quote post Address this user
Quote:
Originally Posted by KiloGraham
The census also doesn't take into account slabs cracked and not reported back to be removed. So if you have a slab, crack it your self for ss and don't tell them it was graded prior, the same book would be listed twice wouldn't it?


Yes. I've got 50 or so labels here myself that I have yet to turn in. I probably will, but since they removed the incentive to do so (you used to get a $3 credit for them), I'm not so motivated.

Every one of those labels I have represents a phantom copy on the census; a slab that no longer exists. There's a HOS #92 out there that is currently deslabbed that has both a 7.5 and a 9.0 listing on the census...neither of which is accurate any more.

And I'm just one guy.
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Collector KiloGraham private msg quote post Address this user
So theoretically every census listing could be skewed by as many books listed in signature series, if each book was slabbed, cracked and not reported back, how ever statistically improbable that would be
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COLLECTOR shrewbeer private msg quote post Address this user
Quote:
Originally Posted by DocBrown
No, see, that's backwards. It's because the book sells for so much money that the census would be more apt to be inaccurate: people sub and resub to get that bump, because that bump is very much worth it.


+100 points to Gryffindor, absolutely correct 👆🏻. Census is a guide at best, improperly used to determine "rarety" by many people.

The only real estimate of how rare a book is, is by how many are actually available for sale in a given time period.

Take a golden age FC nn#1. One pops up for sale every few years. Regardless of the census, that book is therefore rare. The census doesnt come close to counting how many there are, but its a good guide of how many have surfaced into the hands of a serious collector who uses cgc. Then of course even if someone is sitting on 100k copies of a book and 50k people want one, but that person only sells 1 every few years, that book is in fact rare to the market.

IMO there's so much to read between the lines in the census, but all that is just speculation and guessing (and most of it wrong). I saw an auction once list a .5 book as "only .5 ever graded" as a selling point. Well guess what, that book was worth dogshit and thats why nobody had slabbed another at that grade 🤣
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Collector DocBrown private msg quote post Address this user
Quote:
Originally Posted by KiloGraham
So theoretically every census listing could be skewed by as many books listed in signature series, if each book was slabbed, cracked and not reported back, how ever statistically improbable that would be


Sure, in theory. Not in practice, but in theory, yes. And Sig Series is just one reason why someone would crack a book and resubmit it. The vast majority of skewed census results is due to CPR - "crack, press, resub."
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Collector VaComicsGuy private msg quote post Address this user
I never use the census to try to figure out print runs or rarity. I know a guy that submitted the same book 3x. Stupid but he did it. He sent it in raw. Got it back and didn't like the grade so he cracked it and pressed it himself. Resubmitted it and got it back with a lower grade. Cracked it and sent it for professional pressing. Resubmitted it. 1 book and its on the census 3x. Granted, this is probably an extreme case but I'd be willing to bet that there are a huge number of books that have been through the system 2x, either because owners were looking for grade bumps or because the book was graded by one or more companies.
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Collector DocBrown private msg quote post Address this user
Quote:
Originally Posted by shrewbeer


The only real estimate of how rare a book is, is by how many are actually available for sale in a given time period.
🤣


That's a valuable way to estimate, but it's not the only way.

Another way to estimate is to start with how many were produced, and, using as many data points as are known (like sales, average attrition rate, returns, and copies for sale, etc.) figure out what is likely to still exist.

Another way to estimate is to track down people who own, or might own, an example, and survey them.

For example: the Mile High Action #1 hasn't been sold since 1982. It's held by the same man who bought it back then. It's not been slabbed, and never comes up for sale. But we know it exists, because its owner...Dave Anderson...still has it, and has shown it to others in the ensuing 35 years.
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Collector OrbitCityComics private msg quote post Address this user
Quote:
Originally Posted by DocBrown
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Originally Posted by OrbitCityComics
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Originally Posted by DocBrown



No, see, that's backwards. It's because the book sells for so much money that the census would be more apt to be inaccurate: people sub and resub to get that bump, because that bump is very much worth it.

The RRP...which CGC erroneously calls the "Retailer Incentive Variant"...has a fairly impressive price difference between 9.4, 9.6, and 9.8. Even if someone were to submit it under the Express tier...and most people, if they're smart, sub it under the Standard tier, and CGC lets it slide...they're still only paying $100 or so for a fairly hefty possible return: in this case, the 9.4s have been selling for as little as $600 just three years ago, while they're up to $1500-$2000 (hard to track prices on this...it's not a book sold very often)...while a 9.8 is potentially worth $3,000-$4,500...with the last sale at $4,800.

(As an aside, I've never seen a 9.4 sell for $2.5k. The last sale was $2,025, in Jan, which beat the previous high by exactly $500.)

That's a pretty substantial difference in price, and well worth the gamble. And that doesn't take into account the blue labels that are cracked out for Sig Series...or the copies that have crossed over to CBCS.

The point is, no one knows, and any guesses as to how many actual copies there are are just that: guesses. Until and if someone was able to physically put their hands on each and every copy that exists...a fairly impossible task...we'll never know if the census is "fairly accurate" (you don't define what tha


If people are actually doing this, then there are many more stupid people out there in the hobby than I originally believed.

Anyone who buys this book and resubs it in hopes of getting a better grade is a clueless moron when it comes to business. Your potential GMROI is not worth the risk.

Mathematically speaking, you would make more money buying 30 regular covers graded at 9.8 and sitting on them versus spending 4-5k on a 9.8 of this variant and holding it for the same period of time.
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Collector DocBrown private msg quote post Address this user
Quote:
Originally Posted by OrbitCityComics
Quote:
Originally Posted by DocBrown


No, see, that's backwards. It's because the book sells for so much money that the census would be more apt to be inaccurate: people sub and resub to get that bump, because that bump is very much worth it.



If people are actually doing this, then there are many more stupid people out there in the hobby than I originally believed.

Anyone who buys this book and resubs it in hopes of getting a better grade is a clueless moron when it comes to business. Your potential GMROI is not worth the risk.


I'm not quite sure I understand what you've said. Are you talking about people buying a 9.8 and resubbing it in hopes of a higher grade (in which case, I would agree, that's madness)? Or people buying lower grades (8.5, 9.0, 9.4, etc) and pressing them, hoping for a grade bump?

If the latter, that does happen, all the time. An entire industry has grown up around it.
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Collector OrbitCityComics private msg quote post Address this user
Quote:
Originally Posted by DocBrown
Quote:
Originally Posted by OrbitCityComics
Quote:
Originally Posted by DocBrown


No, see, that's backwards. It's because the book sells for so much money that the census would be more apt to be inaccurate: people sub and resub to get that bump, because that bump is very much worth it.



If people are actually doing this, then there are many more stupid people out there in the hobby than I originally believed.

Anyone who buys this book and resubs it in hopes of getting a better grade is a clueless moron when it comes to business. Your potential GMROI is not worth the risk.


I'm not quite sure I understand what you've said. Are you talking about people buying a 9.8 and resubbing it in hopes of a higher grade (in which case, I would agree, that's madness)? Or people buying lower grades (8.5, 9.0, 9.4, etc) and pressing them, hoping for a grade bump?

If the latter, that does happen, all the time. An entire industry has grown up around it.


The latter, and people who do it are pretty stupid if they're doing it for business. These are the people who will kill the secondary market and in the end they'll lose the most money.
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Collector DocBrown private msg quote post Address this user
Quote:
Originally Posted by OrbitCityComics
Quote:
Originally Posted by DocBrown
Quote:
Originally Posted by OrbitCityComics
Quote:
Originally Posted by DocBrown


No, see, that's backwards. It's because the book sells for so much money that the census would be more apt to be inaccurate: people sub and resub to get that bump, because that bump is very much worth it.



If people are actually doing this, then there are many more stupid people out there in the hobby than I originally believed.

Anyone who buys this book and resubs it in hopes of getting a better grade is a clueless moron when it comes to business. Your potential GMROI is not worth the risk.


I'm not quite sure I understand what you've said. Are you talking about people buying a 9.8 and resubbing it in hopes of a higher grade (in which case, I would agree, that's madness)? Or people buying lower grades (8.5, 9.0, 9.4, etc) and pressing them, hoping for a grade bump?

If the latter, that does happen, all the time. An entire industry has grown up around it.


The latter, and people who do it are pretty stupid if they're doing it for business. These are the people who will kill the secondary market and in the end they'll lose the most money.


I have dozens, if not hundreds, of slabs that I have cracked, pressed, and resubbed, and gotten higher grades, and sold for more money.

In fact, of the hundreds that I've cracked, both for myself and for clients, only two have ever come back lower grade, only 6-8 have come back the same, and the rest have all come back higher...which means they sell for more.

I'm having a hard time understanding your reasoning. If I buy a slabbed 9.4 Batman #608 RRP which I see has pressable defects, and I press it to a 9.8....what am I doing wrong?

I'd sincerely love to hear your thoughts about this.
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Collector OrbitCityComics private msg quote post Address this user
Quote:
Originally Posted by DocBrown
Quote:
Originally Posted by OrbitCityComics
Quote:
Originally Posted by DocBrown
Quote:
Originally Posted by OrbitCityComics
Quote:
Originally Posted by DocBrown


No, see, that's backwards. It's because the book sells for so much money that the census would be more apt to be inaccurate: people sub and resub to get that bump, because that bump is very much worth it.



If people are actually doing this, then there are many more stupid people out there in the hobby than I originally believed.

Anyone who buys this book and resubs it in hopes of getting a better grade is a clueless moron when it comes to business. Your potential GMROI is not worth the risk.


I'm not quite sure I understand what you've said. Are you talking about people buying a 9.8 and resubbing it in hopes of a higher grade (in which case, I would agree, that's madness)? Or people buying lower grades (8.5, 9.0, 9.4, etc) and pressing them, hoping for a grade bump?

If the latter, that does happen, all the time. An entire industry has grown up around it.


The latter, and people who do it are pretty stupid if they're doing it for business. These are the people who will kill the secondary market and in the end they'll lose the most money.


I have dozens, if not hundreds, of slabs that I have cracked, pressed, and resubbed, and gotten higher grades, and sold for more money.

In fact, of the hundreds that I've cracked, both for myself and for clients, only two have ever come back lower grade, only 6-8 have come back the same, and the rest have all come back higher...which means they sell for more.

I'm having a hard time understanding your reasoning. If I buy a slabbed 9.4 Batman #608 RRP which I see has pressable defects, and I press it to a 9.8....what am I doing wrong?

I'd sincerely love to hear your thoughts about this.


You have a 608 at 9.4, you resubmitted it and it comes back a 9.8.

For every dollar you invested in that book, how much do you get back?

Add to that, every new 9.8 that is discovered reduces the value of the book.

Anyone actually interested in buying this book knows that it is not a one of a kind item, and those same people will look high and low until they find it for the price they want.

I purchased this book for my local shop when it was valued at around $600, but I only paid $250 for it. I knew no o e was going to pay that price, I know what it did not cost him, and he knew that unless he actually sold it was nothing more than dead inventory. He, also, knew that no one needed[b]bold textbold text[/b] that book, the only people who would buy it was someone who wantedbold[b]bold text text[/b] that book.
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Collector DocBrown private msg quote post Address this user
Quote:
Originally Posted by OrbitCityComics
Quote:
Originally Posted by DocBrown
Quote:
Originally Posted by OrbitCityComics
Quote:
Originally Posted by DocBrown
Quote:
Originally Posted by OrbitCityComics
Quote:
Originally Posted by DocBrown


No, see, that's backwards. It's because the book sells for so much money that the census would be more apt to be inaccurate: people sub and resub to get that bump, because that bump is very much worth it.



If people are actually doing this, then there are many more stupid people out there in the hobby than I originally believed.

Anyone who buys this book and resubs it in hopes of getting a better grade is a clueless moron when it comes to business. Your potential GMROI is not worth the risk.


I'm not quite sure I understand what you've said. Are you talking about people buying a 9.8 and resubbing it in hopes of a higher grade (in which case, I would agree, that's madness)? Or people buying lower grades (8.5, 9.0, 9.4, etc) and pressing them, hoping for a grade bump?

If the latter, that does happen, all the time. An entire industry has grown up around it.


The latter, and people who do it are pretty stupid if they're doing it for business. These are the people who will kill the secondary market and in the end they'll lose the most money.


I have dozens, if not hundreds, of slabs that I have cracked, pressed, and resubbed, and gotten higher grades, and sold for more money.

In fact, of the hundreds that I've cracked, both for myself and for clients, only two have ever come back lower grade, only 6-8 have come back the same, and the rest have all come back higher...which means they sell for more.

I'm having a hard time understanding your reasoning. If I buy a slabbed 9.4 Batman #608 RRP which I see has pressable defects, and I press it to a 9.8....what am I doing wrong?

I'd sincerely love to hear your thoughts about this.


You have a 608 at 9.4, you resubmitted it and it comes back a 9.8.

For every dollar you invested in that book, how much do you get back?


So, the last 9.4 just sold in Jan for $2025. Assuming it had pressable defects (and most of them do NOT), and it could be turned into a 9.8, the costs go something like this:

$2025 for the book
$100 or so to press
$100 or so to slab

You get a 9.8, and sell it for...say...$4500.

You've just made about $2,200 for your effort. That's a pretty nice ROI.

Quote:
Originally Posted by OCC
Add to that, every new 9.8 that is discovered reduces the value of the book.


This is not true. It's an expression of Keynesian economics, whereby there's just a "pie", and every new 9.8 that comes into being means it's worth a smaller amount of that pie. It presumes static demand, which is never the case. Economics is far more fluid than that. There might be people who are looking for a 9.8 copy now that weren't when it didn't exist. Demand changes as much as (available) supply can.

There is a finite number of copies that exist, true. But there is NOT a finite amount of 9.8s that exist...yet.

Quote:
Originally Posted by OCC
Anyone actually interested in buying this book knows that it is not a one of a kind item, and those same people will look high and low until they find it for the price they want.


I'm sure if you asked everyone, the price they want to pay for anything is "free."

What you're really talking about is the price they're forced to pay, IF they want to obtain that book in that grade. They may not have a choice. And, since life in this world is, itself, finite, there are a lot of people willing to pay a higher price now for something that's right in front of them, rather than hope for a lower price down the road.

Quote:
Originally Posted by OCC
I purchased this book for my local shop when it was valued at around $600, but I only paid $250 for it. I knew no o e was going to pay that price, I know what it did not cost him, and he knew that unless he actually sold it was nothing more than dead inventory. He, also, knew that no one needed[b]bold textbold text[/b] that book, the only people who would buy it was someone who wantedbold[b]bold text text[/b] that book.


I don't understand what you're saying when you said you "knew no one was going to pay that price." They have, many times over at this point. In fact, just in CGC slabs, there are 90 sales well over $600, going back to 2003, for this book just in 9.8...with a couple hundred more in lower grades, the vast majority over $600.

And as far as needing...no one needs any comic book. It's not necessary for life. We buy these because we enjoy them.
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Collector OrbitCityComics private msg quote post Address this user
I can prove that entire statement false with you doing one action.

I have a masters in Macro Economics, if you believe your statement to be true, there is currently a 9.6 up for $2500 and by the pics it had a small crease that can be pressed out.

If you truly believe everything you typed to be true, then buy the comic and have the crease removed and put it up on eBay at no reserve.

If I truly believe something I will put my money where my mouth is every time.
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Collector DocBrown private msg quote post Address this user
Quote:
Originally Posted by OrbitCityComics
I can prove that entire statement false with you doing one action.

I have a masters in Macro Economics, if you believe your statement to be true, there is currently a 9.6 up for $2500 and by the pics it had a small crease that can be pressed out.

If you truly believe everything you typed to be true, then buy the comic and have the crease removed and put it up on eBay at no reserve.

If I truly believe something I will put my money where my mouth is every time.


I'm not sure how a single example proves my entire statement false, but let's go with it for the sake of the argument:

For my entire statement to be false, you need to prove it doesn't work 100% of the time. I only need to demonstrate that it works once, and my statement is validated.

But let's consider this specific example: that's not how it works (although this 9.6 for $2500 looks like a good deal at the moment.)

First, you have to be able to inspect the book in person. You can't make decisions based on scans, and it is incredibly rude and tacky to buy a book on eBay, inspect it, then return it just because you decide it's not worth the risk.

Second, I only see a single CBCS 9.6 on eBay, and it's priced at $3,000, not $2,500...and that color break at the top of the spine alone is enough to keep this book out of 9.8. Is that the one you're referring to? If not, please direct me to the copy you're referring to.

Last, in case I didn't make myself clear before, this is a risk. There's no guarantee. However...if you know what you're doing, you can do quite well at it, especially in the nosebleed grades. But it's still a risk. You can spend a lot of money chasing down a dead end. I not only believe everything I typed to be true (or why would I post it?), I've done it. Many times. And so have dozens, if not hundreds, if not thousands of other people.
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Collector DocBrown private msg quote post Address this user
Remember:

Quote:
Originally Posted by DB
Assuming it had pressable defects (and most of them do NOT), and it could be turned into a 9.8


...that is the key. If those conditions aren't met, the rest of it is rendered moot.
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Collector Logan510 private msg quote post Address this user
Quote:
Originally Posted by OrbitCityComics
I can prove that entire statement false with you doing one action.

I have a masters in Macro Economics, if you believe your statement to be true, there is currently a 9.6 up for $2500 and by the pics it had a small crease that can be pressed out.

If you truly believe everything you typed to be true, then buy the comic and have the crease removed and put it up on eBay at no reserve.

If I truly believe something I will put my money where my mouth is every time.


Have you heard of CPR ( crack, press, resub )? There's a subsection of people who do this quite a bit and are successful with it.
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Collector OrbitCityComics private msg quote post Address this user
Quote:
Originally Posted by DocBrown
Quote:
Originally Posted by OrbitCityComics
I can prove that entire statement false with you doing one action.

I have a masters in Macro Economics, if you believe your statement to be true, there is currently a 9.6 up for $2500 and by the pics it had a small crease that can be pressed out.

If you truly believe everything you typed to be true, then buy the comic and have the crease removed and put it up on eBay at no reserve.

If I truly believe something I will put my money where my mouth is every time.


I'm not sure how a single example proves my entire statement false, but let's go with it for the sake of the argument:

For my entire statement to be false, you need to prove it doesn't work 100% of the time. I only need to demonstrate that it works once, and my statement is validated.

But let's consider this specific example: that's not how it works (although this 9.6 for $2500 looks like a good deal at the moment.)

First, you have to be able to inspect the book in person. You can't make decisions based on scans, and it is incredibly rude and tacky to buy a book on eBay, inspect it, then return it just because you decide it's not worth the risk.

Second, I only see a single CBCS 9.6 on eBay, and it's priced at $3,000, not $2,500...and that color break at the top of the spine alone is enough to keep this book out of 9.8. Is that the one you're referring to? If not, please direct me to the copy you're referring to.

Last, in case I didn't make myself clear before, this is a risk. There's no guarantee. However...if you know what you're doing, you can do quite well at it, especially in the nosebleed grades. But it's still a risk. You can spend a lot of money chasing down a dead end. I not only believe everything I typed to be true (or why would I post it?), I've done it. Many times. And so have dozens, if not hundreds, if not thousands of other people.


I can do it with anything. If you believe what you say, then there is zero risk. A no reserve auction will give you the true value of the book.

Put a 9.8 up for a 7 day auction, I'd say the odds of you breaking 3k are about one in ten.

I wouldn't VALUE a 9.8 at more than $1500.
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Collector 1243782365 private msg quote post Address this user
Quote:
Originally Posted by DocBrown
Quote:
Originally Posted by jimmylinguini
Ok I looked into it. Valiant Gold variants were given to retailers based on support of the Valiant Brand.

How that worked out I have no idea.

You can read more about that here but they are 100% variants given to retailers based on their orders, not a ratio based incentive variant. (although there was apparently an issue with the X-O Manowar #1 gold distribution)


That site you source is still repeating the false information that Comichron numbers = print run. They even contradict themselves in the same sentence.

Comichron reports SALES numbers, not PRINT numbers.

That said, however, it is my understanding, from sources at VEI, that Valiant is one of the few companies that prints incentive variants to order. That doesn't mean they release that information...they don't....but they do claim to print the incentives strictly to order.


I was just using that link to demonstrate early retailer variants.
I agree that Comichron numbers are wrong, they only count north america - they don't report newsstand AND when Marvel doubles a retailers orders to pump up market share they count them as "sales".
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COLLECTOR shrewbeer private msg quote post Address this user
Quote:
Originally Posted by OrbitCityComics
I wouldn't VALUE a 9.8 at more than $1500.


fyi .99c auction last month on a 9.4 net 2k
https://www.ebay.com/itm/142254599135

Never ceases to amaze me how much some of these books go for. The bottom IS going to fall out of the modern market as it always does, but hey to each their own. I stick to investing in high grade GA/SA keys and buy what modern books I like in my budget, as I'm just purchasing happiness! 👍🏻
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Collector DocBrown private msg quote post Address this user
Quote:
Originally Posted by OrbitCityComics
Quote:
Originally Posted by DocBrown
Quote:
Originally Posted by OrbitCityComics
I can prove that entire statement false with you doing one action.

I have a masters in Macro Economics, if you believe your statement to be true, there is currently a 9.6 up for $2500 and by the pics it had a small crease that can be pressed out.

If you truly believe everything you typed to be true, then buy the comic and have the crease removed and put it up on eBay at no reserve.

If I truly believe something I will put my money where my mouth is every time.


I'm not sure how a single example proves my entire statement false, but let's go with it for the sake of the argument:

For my entire statement to be false, you need to prove it doesn't work 100% of the time. I only need to demonstrate that it works once, and my statement is validated.

But let's consider this specific example: that's not how it works (although this 9.6 for $2500 looks like a good deal at the moment.)

First, you have to be able to inspect the book in person. You can't make decisions based on scans, and it is incredibly rude and tacky to buy a book on eBay, inspect it, then return it just because you decide it's not worth the risk.

Second, I only see a single CBCS 9.6 on eBay, and it's priced at $3,000, not $2,500...and that color break at the top of the spine alone is enough to keep this book out of 9.8. Is that the one you're referring to? If not, please direct me to the copy you're referring to.

Last, in case I didn't make myself clear before, this is a risk. There's no guarantee. However...if you know what you're doing, you can do quite well at it, especially in the nosebleed grades. But it's still a risk. You can spend a lot of money chasing down a dead end. I not only believe everything I typed to be true (or why would I post it?), I've done it. Many times. And so have dozens, if not hundreds, if not thousands of other people.


I can do it with anything.


Again...for what you're saying to be true, it has to be true for everything, not just "anything." I only need to prove it works once, and what I've said is validated.


Here's an example:




As a universal 9.4, that book was worth maybe $30-$35.

As a 9.8 (signed by Stan, no less), it's probably a $300+ book.

That's just one example.

Quote:
Originally Posted by OCC

If you believe what you say, then there is zero risk. A no reserve auction will give you the true value of the book.


No, it will give you the value of the book at that time, with those people who happened to be around to bid.

And with auctions not being supported by eBay for a very long time now, the odds for selling an item for less than what someone would otherwise be willing to pay for it (which is the actual measure of value) are greatly increased.

In auctions, particularly on eBay, the value of the item isn't what the top bidder is willing to pay for it...but what the second highest bidder is.

The top bidder may have been willing to pay 25% more, 50% more, 200% more...no one knows, because that information is known only to the high bidder, and whomever he/she chooses to reveal it to.

But auction mechanics aside, the real value of anything is what someone is willing to pay for it, and literally millions of listings over the last 15 years on eBay have proven that people are willing to pay more for an item outright than it usually ends at auction.

I believe what I say, because I have hundreds, if not thousands, of pieces of evidence that prove it, but what you're trying to equate it to (listing in an auction) has nothing to do with the reality of cracking, pressing, re-submitting, and ending up with a higher grade, and a higher value.

I don't know how else to explain this to you; it's hardly a secret. People have been doing this for a very, very long time.

Quote:
Originally Posted by OCC
Put a 9.8 up for a 7 day auction, I'd say the odds of you breaking 3k are about one in ten.


That's an "impossible-to-prove" statement. Where do you come up with those odds?

But for this particular book, I'd say the odds are really 1:1 that you break $3,000 at this point in time for a 9.8, even in a 7 day listing. Again...the last copy just sold a little over a month ago for $4,800. $3,000 is going to be too tempting to too many people to pass up.

And you don't need more than one person to to pay the asking price to prove the point.

Quote:
Originally Posted by OCC
I wouldn't VALUE a 9.8 at more than $1500.


Ok, but you do understand that that's an unrealistic valuation, based on current market dynamics, right?

Just because you wouldn't pay more than $1500, doesn't mean no one else would. In fact, if it were offered to me for $2,000, I'd hand over the cash without thinking about it.

That may change, but for right now, the market for these books in 9.8 is about $3500-$4800. The last three sales of CGC slabs were $4800, $4050, and $3383. Right NOW, the book is worth substantially more than $1500.
Post 76 IP   flag post
Collector Kav private msg quote post Address this user
I think 'anything' and 'everything' is the same thing.
Post 77 IP   flag post
Collector OrbitCityComics private msg quote post Address this user
@DocBrown never mind. We're speaking two totally different languages. I'm speaking of value while you're focusing on sales price.
Post 78 IP   flag post
Collector DocBrown private msg quote post Address this user
Quote:
Originally Posted by OrbitCityComics
@DocBrown never mind. We're speaking two totally different languages. I'm speaking of value while you're focusing on sales price.


No problem. Value is established by sales, otherwise there would be no way to value anything, but I think the points have been made fairly well. Thanks for the discussion!
Post 79 IP   flag post
Collector Kav private msg quote post Address this user
Value is not always established by sales. Research the Dutch Tulip Bulb crash.
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