Pricing low census count books.20066
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 I like bean sprouts.
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James42 private msg quote post Address this user | |
| So I'm curious, how do you determine what a fair price is on a book with a low census count. Specifically as a buyer, but I assume it's a similar question for sellers. I am currently trying to put together a full run of G.I. Combat, because why not. The thing is, there isn't a lot of census or sales data for a lot of these books. Sure, the keys trade often enough that there's a solid market value, but random issues from the Quality era? Just not much data there. I've been buying based on gut, mostly. If I can get a decent quality (non-key) Golden age book for under $20, Silver for under $5, and Bronze for under $3 (with varying levels of "decent" as the books get newer), I figure I'm okay. But does anyone have a better method than instinct for not commonly traded and low census books? |
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| Post 1 • IP flag post | ||
 would be nice to have a snugger fit.
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Sigur_Ros private msg quote post Address this user | |
| When I buy or sell, I never consider the census. I wouldn't charge, or pay, a premium based on "the count". I've never returned a label after CPR and I know a lot of people who do the same thing. It's just not reliable. |
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| Post 2 • IP flag post | ||
 I have a problem with fattening women up.
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Bronte private msg quote post Address this user | |
I don't believe in absolutes. While copies of this book may have been CPR, The census count on my book at last view was top 6. Being a key, with low census count, if I were to sell, I would ask for a premium.  |
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 I don't believe this....and I know you don't care that I don't believe this.
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GAC private msg quote post Address this user | |
| The census is definitely inaccuarate....and getting increasingly so to the point that it will become virtually meaningless for most books. I'm not sure how the census could ever be repaired short of deleting it entirely and repopulating the data with the existing slabs through a vetted process. This being said, extrapolate whatever sales data does exist...determine if the sales trajectory is moving upwards or downwards or is flat. Use all databases at your disposal (census, MCS, eBay, HA, etc). Ultimately, it will be worth, what its worth to you, and the seller. |
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| Post 4 • IP flag post | ||
 I've spent years perfecting my brand of assholery.
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DrWatson private msg quote post Address this user | |
| I would look at something along the lines of GPA before I would even consider the census. | ||
| Post 5 • IP flag post | ||
 Staple topics, nice.
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makahuka private msg quote post Address this user | |
| Awesome info. | ||
| Post 6 • IP flag post | ||
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I like bean sprouts.
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James42 private msg quote post Address this user | |
| Are there any resources for raw books y'all would recommend over others? Most of the stuff I am shopping for has such low census counts that graded copies don't shift that often and I am buying raw. For example, one book I was looking for recently shows has a total of 4 copies in the CGC census and 0 in CBCS. But I can find raw copies available with varying (sometimes wildly) prices. So they exist and change hands, but I don't want to overspend (badly) if it can be avoided. | ||
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I've spent years perfecting my brand of assholery.
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DrWatson private msg quote post Address this user | |
| Oversteet Price Guide would be your best bet there. | ||
| Post 8 • IP flag post | ||
 I showed my wife and she was so happy for me she started to cry.
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Batman66 private msg quote post Address this user | |
| @Bronte if you were to sell, I would be interested | ||
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I showed my wife and she was so happy for me she started to cry.
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Batman66 private msg quote post Address this user | |
 just picked up 31 copies of a 1946 book that has 25 on the CGC census, none on the cbcs population report |
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| Post 10 • IP flag post | ||
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I have a problem with fattening women up.
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Bronte private msg quote post Address this user | |
| @Batman66 I don't see it being for sale in the foreseeable future. |
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| Post 11 • IP flag post | ||
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I showed my wife and she was so happy for me she started to cry.
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Batman66 private msg quote post Address this user | |
@Bronte understand, if you do decide to sell, let me know  |
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| Post 12 • IP flag post | ||
 " . "
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Davethebrave private msg quote post Address this user | |
| The thing to understand with the census data (more than CPR impacts) is the correlation between value and slabbing proportion of population. For very high value books, a low census count is extremely meaningful. For example Action Comics 1 and Tec 27 are exceptionally rare. Far rarer in fact than many books with lower counts. For low/mid value books (including most of the ones difficult to ascertain FMV for) the census count will be dramatically understated. A census count of 10 for a book that has sold in the past for $100… there could easily be 10x, 20x, 100+x in the “wild”… the incentive to search and slab is too low. The Gerber scarcity index is another source but has very low accuracy. Not sure they used a statistical approach or anecdotal evidence but for the books I’ve checked against their scale they are way off. My guess is a similar phenomenon as I mention above applied - they relied on evidence based analysis (number of known copies) but ignored the massive impact of incentives that skew the visibility of the copies… |
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" . "
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Davethebrave private msg quote post Address this user | |
| For pricing low census count books as a seller, I strongly suggest pricing “too high” (ie much higher than your gut estimate) but with a large range of allowable offers. Then be patient - let the book(s) sit for at least months to gauge where offers are coming at and then adjust accordingly (just above the highest offer previously received). As a buyer I suggest acknowledging the variability in potential value and offering an amount based on how difficult it has been to find copies (ignoring census data) and your own willingness to pay for it. In things that rarely transact there won’t be an easily discernable/reliable FMV - it simply doesn’t exist if something is thinly traded. |
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| Post 14 • IP flag post | ||
 Collector
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Silversorrow private msg quote post Address this user | |
Quote:Originally Posted by Davethebrave ^^^This a thousand times over. I do this when selling stuff on eBay too, it really gives a good picture of what most people are willing to pay. |
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| Post 15 • IP flag post | ||
 Collector
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SidTheSquid private msg quote post Address this user | |
| I've been trying to figure this out myself. I recently got a major key and it's the only one on either census. I can only compare to other genre similar books that there are copies of on the census. But also have to factor in that I wouldn't be able to easily get another one. But it really just comes down to; how bad would someone else want it/how deep are their pockets and what's the figure I just wouldn't be able to say no to? | ||
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 I live in RI and Rhode Islanders eat chili with beans.
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esaravo private msg quote post Address this user | |
1956 one-shot. Only one on CGC census and zero on CBCS population report. Would you consider it rare, scarce, or even valuable? In order to be valuable, there needs to be demand. Why are books like ASM #300 and Hulk #181 valuable? Definitely not because of the number of available copies. |
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| Post 17 • IP flag post | ||
 It gets old smelling it everytime I go outside my door.
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Nearmint67 private msg quote post Address this user | |
| @Davethebrave I could have used that advice 15 years ago.. lol... I had the White Mountain copy of Strange Tales # 107. CGC (before Steve started CBCS) 9.4 with white pages of course. I paid like 250.00 for it raw. I believe it sold on comiclink for 1,100.00 or so. I should have listed it at 5,000.00 and waited to see offers. The book sold literally 2 minutes after I listed it. Now that book is tucked away somewhere and may never see public offering again. But you are right on.... |
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| Post 18 • IP flag post | ||
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I don't believe this....and I know you don't care that I don't believe this.
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GAC private msg quote post Address this user | |
| Great advice from @Davethebrave as usual. For books that have little to no sales data...sure, err on the side of caution and price it super high. But, as @esaravo stated above, rarity/scarcity does not equal valuable. One should first try to ascertain if said book is even in high demand. That's a tougher nut to crack. But for sure if it's a high demand, scarce book...price really high because even if it's priced too high, buyers will stil come knocking trying to get your price down. If the book is not in demand but you priced it really high it will very likely never sell....determining level of demand is key. | ||
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