Ultimate Fallout - Another CGC/CBCS Market Comparison19619
 Hmm... Moderated again!
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figment private msg quote post Address this user | |
| We watched this kind of thing a few moths ago with identical issues of Tales of Suspense #39, now let's take a more modern slant. For your consideration we have this from CBCS... Ultimate Fallout #4 Variant Edition (Marvel, 2011) CBCS NM/MT 9.8 White pages ...and this from CGC... Ultimate Fallout #4 Variant Edition (Marvel, 2011) CGC NM/MT 9.8 White pages Thoughts, comments, and observations welcome as we wait and watch. As of this writing, the bid for the CGC slab is nearly twice that of the CBCS slab. In both listings it explicitly mentions the previous $43.2K sale, my uneducated guess is that neither of these reaches that mark. So once again the game's afoot! |
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 I'd like to say I still turned out alright, but that would be a lie.
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flanders private msg quote post Address this user | |
| Although the slab is from 2021 it appears CBCS still hasn't fixed that annoying scratch on the bottom of all their slabs (that no one seems to want to talk about when praising how clear their slabs are). Looking at both scans, it's possible both are 9.8s or neither are. It's hard to tell if certain things are on the slab, inner well, or the comic. With the great reviews for the newly released movie I'm guessing the values will be in line with the most recent heritage sales. 33k for the CGC 9.8 28k for the CBCS 9.8 - I believe a CGC 9.8 sold for around 29k in April 2023, so I expect the CBCS book to be slightly lower than this. |
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 If you want to bludgeon someone with a comic, PSA should be your first choice.
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James42 private msg quote post Address this user | |
 This blows my mind. |
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| Post 3 • IP flag post | ||
 I don't want to brag, but cashiers are always checking me out.
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power_struggle55 private msg quote post Address this user | |
| that is why I had to settle on the facsmile. no way can afford even a 2nd printing | ||
| Post 4 • IP flag post | ||
 Captain Accident
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the420bandito private msg quote post Address this user | |
$43K? Zoinks!  |
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| Post 5 • IP flag post | ||
 I've spent years perfecting my brand of assholery.
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DrWatson private msg quote post Address this user | |
| People are stupid. | ||
| Post 6 • IP flag post | ||
 I have a problem with fattening women up.
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Bronte private msg quote post Address this user | |
| Buy the cbcs and resubmit if uou gotta have a cgc.... | ||
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 Collector
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CoryC private msg quote post Address this user | |
| Im not the most knowledgeable here by any stretch but anecdotally it seems like CGC cornered the market early and are now synonymous with comic grading similar to how you’d ask for a Kleenex to blow your nose. Kleenex is the brand, you’re wiping your nose with tissue paper. All CBCS can really do is stay consistent on grading, have competitive costs and turnaround times, and offer good customer service. In 10 years is easily feasible that collectors will grow sour of CGC and/or trust CBCS enough to make this more of a Coke vs Pepsi type of analogy. In the end though value is still subjective so the final say on the value of either companies slab is determined by us. |
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 It's like the Roach Motel for comic collectors.
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chester15 private msg quote post Address this user | |
| I'm waiting for when they hit the 100th printing milestone. | ||
| Post 9 • IP flag post | ||
 If the viagra is working you should be well over a 9.8.
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xkonk private msg quote post Address this user | |
| The CGC copy is first in the listing order, so it will go for more. Although on the other hand, I can't think of a time where I've seen CGC and CBCS copies of the exact same book where CBCS was listed first. | ||
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 Masculinity takes a holiday.
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EbayMafia private msg quote post Address this user | |
| There was a large window of opportunity in 2021 for CBCS to gain significant ground on CGC in industry perception. CGC's backlog issue was an opportunity to pick up some high-profile dealers with high profile books. Unfortunately, they didn't strategize and ended up with quantity over quality. They took in thousands of small submissions of irrelevant modern books, jumping right into the hole that CGC had got themselves into. That window shut on their fingers. It would make a good case study for business schools. | ||
| Post 11 • IP flag post | ||
 past performance is no guarantee of future actions.
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KatKomics private msg quote post Address this user | |
| guess my sh!t 9.6 copy of the normal cover will have to make due.... only paid $40 for it though and my kid will be happy to have it once I'm not around? | ||
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I'd like to say I still turned out alright, but that would be a lie.
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flanders private msg quote post Address this user | |
Quote:Originally Posted by EbayMafia There are plenty of collector's still out there that can reduce their upfront grading costs by thousands by using CBCS's unlimited value tier:  Especially when you consider how many people press already slabbed books and are looking for a grade bump. That being said, people don't usually submit to CBCS if they're looking to get the maximum grade possible. So maybe that window is shut. It's easy to see what option would result in a higher grade: Option A: Here's a press & resubmit along with a huge bag of money. Option B: Here's a measly $200. |
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 PLOD
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theCapraAegagrus private msg quote post Address this user | |
Quote:Originally Posted by CoryC They have no chance unless this is remediated. |
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Hmm... Moderated again!
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figment private msg quote post Address this user | |
| As of 6/9 in descending price order... CGC 9.8 $7500 (Signature Series) CGC 9.8 $6000 CGC 9.6 $3840 CBCS 9.8 $3670 As @DrWatson said, "People are stupid." |
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Collector
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CoryC private msg quote post Address this user | |
Quote:Originally Posted by figment 100 percent it’s kinda crazy. People basically saying they don’t care about the actual value of the book inside, and valuing the slab itself to be worth 2k more than the CBCS 9.8. So much so they will buy an inferior and less valuable book for a few hundred more just to get that special case lol |
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Hmm... Moderated again!
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figment private msg quote post Address this user | |
| As of 6/19 in descending price order... CGC 9.8 $12600 (Signature Series) CGC 9.8 $7466 CGC 9.6 $4440 CBCS 9.8 $3720 Two days left! |
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 I have not set up at a con since 2029.
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PolarisNuclearSS2020 private msg quote post Address this user | |
| Takeaway from this thread is if you have a few grand to spare, buy a CBCS 9.8 , have I graded by CGC …but have it pressed first if it has even a tiny pressable defect …to increase the odds of getting a 9.8 from CGC …..and potentially make a couple grand in profit. Second takeaway is don’t sub this book to CBCS. |
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 " . "
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Davethebrave private msg quote post Address this user | |
Quote:Originally Posted by flanders The CBCS listing specifically calls out the (many, many, many) scuffs as being on the inside of case but not the comic. Those scratches (front and back!) seem to clearly BE scratches but definitely not doing it any favors. Overall, it is a pretty ugly slab. The CGC 9.8 has some stuff going on with the bottom back cover - reflections? Damage? Hard to tell. Also not ideal. Those who believe CBCS undergrades vs CGC should buy that CBCS copy if anything NEAR the current 2:1 price ratio persists through auction close. Personally, in this instance (at this gap) I’d be hard pressed to NOT buy the CBCS copy. Of course it is tricky when I wouldn’t want to spend $2k on -any- of these books, let alone $10k-$20k+. Perhaps in this part of the market rationality is so far out the door that it’s already at the airport and waiting for its flight. |
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| Post 19 • IP flag post | ||
 You can't get good wood on the ball every time.
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HotKeyComics private msg quote post Address this user | |
| This gap in the market still amazes me so I ran some numbers again between the 2. This is just a straight % comparison of the total graded blue labels in each company's population report. I didn't count restored and signed copies as those have other factors that can influence the grade. I know some think these comparisons are skewed because of the perception that people sent their higher grade stuff to CGC until just recently, so I did a comparison of Department of Truth #1 as well since that should be free on any of those perceptions since its barely 2 years old. Percentages are rounded to the nearest 2 digits. CBCS has 1,216 total graded UF4 blue labels. The top 4 grades break down as follows: 9.8 = 172 graded, 14.15% of the total graded 9.6 = 210, 17.27% 9.4 = 254, 20.89% 9.2 = 235, 19.33% CGC has 15,261 total graded UF4 blue labels. The top 4 grades break down as follows: 9.8 = 3,980 graded, 26.08% of the total graded 9.6 = 4,329, 28.37% 9.4 = 2,535, 16.61% 9.2 = 1,628, 10.67% Quite a difference between the 2, CGC gives out 9.8s almost 2 to 1, seems like CBCS 9.8s should be worth more because they are harder to get, just by the numbers. Even the 9.6's aren't close. Just over 54% of the total graded by CGC got a 9.6 or higher, while CBCS gave the top 2 grades to just over 31% of the total graded. How does Department of Truth look? That should be more equal since those were all submitted "newsstand fresh" to both companies and shouldn't encounter any of the potential submission bias that some think UF4 was subject to. Let's see... CBCS has 310 total graded. 9.8 = 257 graded, 82.90% of the total graded 9.6 = 28, 9.03% 9.4 = 8, 2.58% 9.2 = 9, 2.90% CGC has 3,329 total graded. 9.8 = 2,973 graded, 89.31% of the total graded 9.6 = 242, 7.27% 9.4 = 63, 1.89% 9.2 = 27, 0.81% So even on brand new moderns that should be nearly identical, CGC is giving out 9.8s more. On a brand new modern book, CGC gave the top 2 grades to 96.58% of all submissions, CBCS gave the top 2 grades to 91.93% of all submissions. That may seem a lot closer, but these are all brand new comics and if both companies are grading the same standards consistently, they should be much closer that that. The market should be the opposite of what it is just by the numbers. CBCS 9.8s are harder to get, and I would bet a decent living could be made just buying CBCS 9.6s and resubmitting to CGC for potential 9.8s. These numbers shouldn't be controversial but I bet some people get upset by them and try to explain them away, but the numbers are what they are. Feel free to grab any key issue of note and do your own comparison, try to find one that CGC wins, I bet you won't be successful. |
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Davethebrave private msg quote post Address this user | |
| All good points but the real question (if a difference exists) is why people aren’t taking advantage en masse and making wild profit off it. Somewhat odd we don’t see this because the comic trading market is rife with speculators looking to edge a $. Does it occur in pockets of the market where the sophistication is so low that it goes unnoticed? Perhaps. Money and sense don’t always go together. I can’t stomach throwing $ at any of these UF4 books at these prices. But if I did, it would certainly be to test the arbitrage opportunity here. Will be interesting to see where the books ultimately finish. The gap should close significantly based on how the books appear (as unfortunate as the presentation in slabs are). |
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PLOD
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theCapraAegagrus private msg quote post Address this user | |
Quote:Originally Posted by HotKeyComics How would this make sense? The actual product is the same. |
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| Post 22 • IP flag post | ||
 I don't believe this....and I know you don't care that I don't believe this.
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GAC private msg quote post Address this user | |
Quote:Originally Posted by theCapraAegagrus He's suggesting the product is not the same....yes, they are both 9.8s but not all 9.8s are created equally. |
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| Post 23 • IP flag post | ||
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PLOD
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theCapraAegagrus private msg quote post Address this user | |
Quote:Originally Posted by GAC It doesn't matter if Wal-Mart and Meijer both call them "Brand New", it's still a 4 oz can of Bumblebee tuna. If people aren't buying CBCS-graded comics at the same rate, there are reasons, regardless if one wishes to disbelieve them. |
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| Post 24 • IP flag post | ||
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You can't get good wood on the ball every time.
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HotKeyComics private msg quote post Address this user | |
Quote:Originally Posted by theCapraAegagrus The same way it makes sense for CGC to sell for more than CBCS. |
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I have not set up at a con since 2029.
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PolarisNuclearSS2020 private msg quote post Address this user | |
Quote:Originally Posted by Davethebrave I don’t think either CGC or CBCS overgrades or undergrades to any significant extent, compared to one another. Buying a CBCS 9.8 and assuming it’ll get a 9.8 from CGC isn’t a good idea, without carefully looking over the slabbed book before bidding. Even if it were to be a solid 9.8, what if the book suffers a finger bend when CGC cracks open the slab or a spine tick from being stored in a polybag & regular backing board by CGC? That 9.8 drops to 9.0-9.6. Have you seen the bags & boards both CGC & CBCS have at their tables at conventions and that CGC includes in their shipping kits? They aren’t Mylite2’s and full backs. I don’t know what supplies are used by CGC or CBCS, once they crack a slab. |
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Davethebrave private msg quote post Address this user | |
| Similar risk exists submitting any high value book. That also includes (perhaps even more applicable with) pressing. So those who crack and press books should be climbing over each other to acquire CBCS books that present at discounts, especially IF CBCS grading is more strict. I don’t play the 9.8 game and for those books I do focus on (mostly SA and GA) I see no CGC grading issues. But many swear that CGC has looser standards overall and in some areas, they may. But this would suggest an opportunity - especially if at the SAME grade CGC trades at a premium. It becomes a “double-arbitrage” and frankly would massively overcome any case-by-case submission damage risk. I’d love to test it - and maybe I will - if it happens with a book I’m otherwise interested in acquiring. |
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| Post 27 • IP flag post | ||
 Collector
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Terry88 private msg quote post Address this user | |
Until stuff like this stops happening, I'm done having books graded. I'll just continue to let everyone else take the risk.  |
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I have not set up at a con since 2029.
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PolarisNuclearSS2020 private msg quote post Address this user | |
Quote:Originally Posted by Davethebrave Many others say the same, but the other way around. The only thing consistent about CGC and CGC grading is that both are fairly inconsistent. You can get a 9.6 one day, then crack it out and te-sub and get a 9.8. Disagree that there’s a risk in pressing, other than more people handling your book- which is a risk but that’s why some submitters learn to press their own books, as well as to cut out the pressing fees and pressing TAT. |
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| Post 29 • IP flag post | ||
 Have I told you about the time I dropped off 3,000 comics at SDCC?
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Scifinator private msg quote post Address this user | |
Quote:Originally Posted by KatKomics@KatKomics - if it is a 9.6 CBCS, crack it imand send to CGC for a 9.8 grade or to pgx for a 9.9 |
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