GOLD or GRAIL?16959
 I'm waiting.... (tapping fingers).Splotches is gettin old! |
Nuffsaid111 private msg quote post Address this user | |
@GAC Thanks! your likes pushed me over the 10K mark!   |
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| Post 51 • IP flag post | ||
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PDGray private msg quote post Address this user | |
| Stick with the Gold or buy a Rolex - that market has blown UP over the last few years. I have three and they have done MUCH better than my comics have over the same time period. PDG |
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| Post 52 • IP flag post | ||
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capnfatz private msg quote post Address this user | |
| @Nuffsaid111 disclosure request just for transparency purposes... do you own any copies of 181, or how do you stand to gain on the books appreciation? Apologies, i am not familiar with everyone's background here. I own one mid grade copy, raw, purchased at an LCS 20+ years ago for $17, which i felt I overpaid for. I am risk averse by nature, and view 181, GSX1, ASM 129, etc. as highly overvalued given all the speculation, especially when viewed vs GA or other SA books. Of course, I have clearly been wrong about that for years, as the values continue to climb. Perhaps the factors I view as potential impediments to explosive long term growth will never materialize, such as (1) demographics of core collectors, (2) the hoarding of these issues by spec-dealers, (3) the non-rarity, (4) the assumption that Marvel/Disney can do no wrong, (5) the assumption that physical comics will continue to gain in popularity and demand, and of course the always present question for discerning people... (6) why are so many people selling so many copies at this point given the belief that its a no brainer to keep going higher? I'm a collector, not so much an investor, and have limited discretionary income, so my view on a possible purchase of this book is vastly different from that of an "investor/speculator". |
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| Post 53 • IP flag post | ||
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Davethebrave private msg quote post Address this user | |
Quote:Originally Posted by PDGray How did you know what collectible I was referring to ;-) Stainless steel Daytonas make even comic fervor look tame. I apply my same reasoning to that market and would favor moving some high flying Rolexes into PP or ALS etc today… not that it generally can be done 1:1 Like most things, I look at pricing and say “absurd” and not going to drop more cash in… but I am not selling either. Even if my personal view is future decline. Purely on the concept of diversification coupled with me being a collector first, investor second. |
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| Post 54 • IP flag post | ||
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Davethebrave private msg quote post Address this user | |
| @capnfatz are you me but just posting through another account? I have a favorable view of the market long-term (10+ years). But all the concerns you cite are ones I think are under-appreciated. I also pause whenever people reference value increases as sure bets. |
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| Post 55 • IP flag post | ||
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I'm waiting.... (tapping fingers). Splotches is gettin old! |
Nuffsaid111 private msg quote post Address this user | |
| @capnfatz I have 1 book. I wish I could afford more high grades. If I could, I'd be buying them right now with the only cap being how many I can possibly get my hands on | ||
| Post 56 • IP flag post | ||
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etapi65 private msg quote post Address this user | |
Quote:Originally Posted by EbayMafia I've had the exact opposite issues. Able to resell a book quickly, but had a hell of a time reselling gold coins. Especially for anything near FMV. Where you live and your personal relationship with local shops may play a role here. |
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| Post 57 • IP flag post | ||
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I'm waiting.... (tapping fingers). Splotches is gettin old! |
Nuffsaid111 private msg quote post Address this user | |
| This guy, is, imo way ahead of everyone else in the game. While everyone is trying to guess at the next hot modern to come out next week to flip for $10 or $20, this guy is taking an approach that is pretty darn savvy. He will reap the rewards of these large initial expenditures https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nyE9pxrem0g |
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| Post 58 • IP flag post | ||
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doog private msg quote post Address this user | |
| Yes , Hulk 181 values have increased an average of 100% per year over the last 10 years. For me, it is easy, comics over gold. Liquidity? You just better not need to sell immediately, but if you do, convert to cash right now. Quote: Originally Posted by Nuffsaid111 |
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| Post 59 • IP flag post | ||
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Davethebrave private msg quote post Address this user | |
Quote:Originally Posted by Nuffsaid111 Congrats on a great book. I remember seeing a copy years ago (late 80s) in my grandmother’s basement (uncle’s copy who passed away many years ago). Not a mint copy but nice condition… Is the excitement of adding more copies due to expected future value increases? This seems pretty common with IH181… anecdotally at least. Many multi-copy owners. If many are holding or accumulating mostly on the premise of future value increases that suggests a potential problem. |
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| Post 60 • IP flag post | ||
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I'm waiting.... (tapping fingers). Splotches is gettin old! |
Nuffsaid111 private msg quote post Address this user | |
| As I said before, when that trailer hits and those claws are shown in an MCU movie, all logic of how many on census, who is holding this, who has 5 copies, how many were re-slabbed is tossed out the window. It is coming and the ones that had the foresight and money to see it will do extraordinarily well in the future. Top 5 popularity character if not more. Maybe top 3. That matters I'll take this in high grade over gold |
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| Post 61 • IP flag post | ||
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capnfatz private msg quote post Address this user | |
Quote:Originally Posted by Nuffsaid111 Quote: Originally Posted by Davethebrave I suppose diversity of opinion makes the whole thing more fun! The last ten years is sort of an interesting range to draw projections from. Lots of cash trying to find a home, leading to what could be magnificent overvaluations in all areas of the economy. Of course, flip side is that scared money don't make money, and the last few years is actually the new norm, where everything keeps appreciating every year. I view Dave's hoarding, along with other you tubers who do the same, as a reason to not buy. |
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| Post 62 • IP flag post | ||
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Davethebrave private msg quote post Address this user | |
| As for investor savvy, IH181 is very liquid but due to massive supply it can turn quickly. Consider if people expect prices to drop, say 25%. IH181 multi copy holders (especially those who employed leverage to stock up) are likely insta-sellers. If AC1 is expected to drop alongside (25%) I expect very, very few would sell. Obviously limited number of multi-copy holders. Evidence? The relative small number of sellers at record prices. What does the expectation-trigger activity mean? It means AC1 may have a solid landing and IH181 may have a vicious decline, even from a modest correction. It is Manhattan real estate vs Vegas real estate circa 2008-2009. Also, we need to ask how much of the outperformance of IH181 is speculators acquiring or hoarding multiple copies based on higher future prices. Yes, redundant to above but from the different side. Think real estate buying and then crashing (still not fully recovered in many markets) from 2004-2008… Extreme comparisons, sure, but IH181 is very expensive. I suspect it makes up a similar (or higher) percentage of net worth (ex Real Estate), on average, than an AC1 copy for AC1 holders. Again, on average. |
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| Post 63 • IP flag post | ||
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I'm waiting.... (tapping fingers). Splotches is gettin old! |
Nuffsaid111 private msg quote post Address this user | |
| @capnfatz @Davethebrave In several years when an MCU trailer is released with Wolverine, let's revisit this thread. My only regret on that day will be that I could not afford to purchase high grade copies after I said I told you so. |
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| Post 64 • IP flag post | ||
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capnfatz private msg quote post Address this user | |
Quote:Originally Posted by Nuffsaid111 An "I told you so" is probably unnecessary... I've already stated I've been wrong on this for the last few years, and will probably be wrong about it for many more. I hope you are right, and the secondary comic market continues to be on fire. I certainly stand to gain from that scenario... only slightly due to my collection, mainly because it would mean so many other factors have gone well also. It's great to point out all aspects to consider w.r.t. Rafel's original post, and from multiple points of view. As you can probably ascertain, I have traditionally been a curmudgeon in these types of discussions... don't get me started on veve! |
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| Post 65 • IP flag post | ||
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capnfatz private msg quote post Address this user | |
Quote:Originally Posted by CatmanAmerica Wow, what a book |
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| Post 66 • IP flag post | ||
 Masculinity takes a holiday.
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EbayMafia private msg quote post Address this user | |
| I guess I don't understand the whole MCU bump thing. It won't catch anyone by surprise. It's not like Wolverine will finally be making his silver screen appearance. I can't really see why it will be meaningful to another price increase? | ||
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 I have a problem with fattening women up.
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Bronte private msg quote post Address this user | |
| @EbayMafia Speculation isn't really a logical thing. It's more of a temporary high that people are looking for to make money. Most books actually drop after a movie. Maybe not as low as before the hype, but definitely drpps after the movie passes. I don't think I've ever heard of a book continuing to rise after s movie appearance has been made even if it's successful. |
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| Post 68 • IP flag post | ||
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Masculinity takes a holiday.
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EbayMafia private msg quote post Address this user | |
| @Bronte I think there are several examples where a short-term drop after the movie is followed by continual rise in prices. ASM 300, TOS 39, Avengers 1, x-men 4 etc, etc. But Wolverine has had multiple successful movies already. And no one is questioning his move to the MCU any more than any other character. So I'm not understanding why this book should expect another MCU bump in addition to the one that all marvel keys seem to have recieved over the last year. | ||
| Post 69 • IP flag post | ||
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I have a problem with fattening women up.
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Bronte private msg quote post Address this user | |
| I think I understand what you are saying. I would imagine that there is an unwritten rule of hysteria that goes with MCU, that wasn't as pronounced with FOX studios or any other previous filming company. It definitely isn't logical, but it definitely exists. I mean look at the avengers 7 illuminati book. Just a 5 second clip sent people scurrying to spend hundreds on that book. |
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| Post 70 • IP flag post | ||
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Davethebrave private msg quote post Address this user | |
Quote:Originally Posted by Nuffsaid111 I’d welcome that because my Marvel books (not insignificant) will keep going up and my other collectibles will likely have done well too :-) I discussed crypto months ago, including my skepticism and why I felt prices would go badly. I also pointed out my (not insignificant) holdings there too. It may seem illogical but I can hold market expectations contrary to what benefits me in isolation. As I said, diversification is key to how I plan. It does change my pattern of buying. It means today I prefer to buy DC books as I see massively better reward vs risk. If I wasn’t diversified enough and/or wasn’t buying mainly to collect what I enjoy, I would sell my Marvel books. It means I don’t add crypto when prices have risen vs my comfort level. Etc etc… I guess my approach is much more like an investor/collector rather than a speculator. I see movies etc as potential catalysts to changing market tone but I wouldn’t buy an AC1 or AF15 and relate it to movie performance. I focus on supply and long-term demand driven by cultural impact. |
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| Post 71 • IP flag post | ||
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PDGray private msg quote post Address this user | |
Quote:Originally Posted by Davethebrave I have a two tone Daytona I bought new last year - Yes, I paid a premium for it, but it has appreciated MUCH more than any comic I own and much faster too!! Not that I am looking to sell either. PDG |
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| Post 72 • IP flag post | ||
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Davethebrave private msg quote post Address this user | |
| Re: movie bumps, it feels bubbly as people are discussing it. In a typical market the current value of any item bakes in some expectations of future state (probability and time adjusted). In other words, for a huge character like Wolverine most of the future movie potential should be (mostly) embedded in its current price. If so, part of the speculative run up is because of what folks are noting here (future movie incorporation). In a nutshell, this means upside is embedded. In fact, the multiple copy hoarding suggests it may be worse… unlike smaller “spec” purchases, there has been focus and expectations for a while manifested in buying up already-pricey issues. But… I don’t even see that justified. Wolverine is already a top 10 comic character globally. I don’t think he will ever crack the highest tier (Supes, Bats, Spidey) … so I don’t see much of an importance shift. So feels like speculation on top of a bubble. To me… I will likely be proven wrong and that is okay. |
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Davethebrave private msg quote post Address this user | |
Quote:Originally Posted by Bronte Irrational behavior is dangerous to rely on. Just consider all the people who purchased meme stocks during the run up … for every seller pocketing $ there is a buyer at those high prices… When the music stops that is when people scramble to find a seat. Some don’t find one and fall on their a$$. |
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| Post 74 • IP flag post | ||
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Ginosdad private msg quote post Address this user | |
| Wow!! This thread! I've been a collector for a long time, and as much as I love comics, this makes me almost feel like I'm out of my league. Gold coins, inflation, speculation, thousands of $$$. Makes my collection feel insignificant. With family and bills I can't even wrap my head around spending gold coins on a comic. But that's just me. | ||
| Post 75 • IP flag post | ||
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Davethebrave private msg quote post Address this user | |
| @Ginosdad honestly, any of these books are big money. I don’t take spending $100 on a comic lightly. Then again, I check the $ per unit volume cost of different cans of beans and tomatoes. I can do it quickly, or else I’d be worried about the value of my time wasted lol. |
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| Post 76 • IP flag post | ||
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Darkseid_of_town private msg quote post Address this user | |
| I will maintain that Giant size x men 1 will ride much higher with many key factors that help its gains. It is prestige ( Believe that is the term) bound and the spine accumulates creasing rapidly and a press can fix some of that, but its more tricky and not as easily fixed with this book. Factor in a white cover, which is quick to show every little spot, smear and rub, similar to black. The book was a new title essentially and many just passed right over it thinking it was reprints or not aware it had even come out. The CGC census lists around 12 copies for it vs IH 181 with over 14k copies on hand. The introductions of key characters on such a diverse scale in one issue makes the book desirable to many groups....you have Storm who is a princess from Kenya, Colossus hails from Russia, Nightcrawler from Bavaria, and finally Thunderbird, an Native American. Another intro that goes unnoticed is the first appearance of Illana Rasputin, Colossus' sister, who would of course later become the character Magik. Also the 2nd full appearance of Wolverine. Factor in some stunning cover art by Kane and Cockrum, and the book also was inked by Cockrum, and then writing by both Claremont and Len Wein and it makes for a monster of a book . If IH 181 climbs higher so will this one....but if and when we get a glimpse of what members the new x men cinematice team will use especially if they were to utilize most or all of them and that will drive the book upwards as well I do believe Marvel will soon begin a project that will allow them to again sidestep the rules about releasing Hulk movies and use that movie to slip Wolverine into continuity. I think that will be a catalyst for IH 181 and it will move higher once more. I had always pumped the Giant size as the better choice, and the video the guy on youtube somewhat supports that , but I think the dynamics are now shifting and 181 has a great chance moving forward. Gold would scare me right now with world events and etc. |
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| Post 77 • IP flag post | ||
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dfoster43 private msg quote post Address this user | |
Quote:Originally Posted by capnfatz Due to monetary needs forced on me by the pandemic I had to sell my IH181 and I regret it terribly, as do I regret not having it cleaned and pressed first but time was of the essence I suppose. If I'd had another 2 months or so to play with I would have re-thunk it. But life comes first and I had that copy bought for cover price for 40+ years and we needed the money very badly. |
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| Post 78 • IP flag post | ||
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I'm waiting.... (tapping fingers). Splotches is gettin old! |
Nuffsaid111 private msg quote post Address this user | |
| I'd take a 9.6/9.8 hulk 181 or a 9.6/9.8 giant size x-men well over gold right now unquestionably. | ||
| Post 79 • IP flag post | ||
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capnfatz private msg quote post Address this user | |
| @Ginosdad no doubt... maybe its as simple as a particular book is something we very much like and want to own, and hopefully we can buy it w/o compromising financial security... at least that's how i ultimately "justify" my grail hunting... the sad thing is that the top books are all moving beyond where most people can do that. I'm watching the current comiclink auction for a 7.5 Marvel Mystery 4 (3rd highest graded of 31 TOTAL)... currently at close to $50k, and wondering if i'll ever be able to consider buying a book like that at that $$$. Then i contrast that to a Hulk 181 9.8, of which there are ~150, with a current bid over $70k and think the world is bonkers. |
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