GOLD or GRAIL?16959
 Masculinity takes a holiday.
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EbayMafia private msg quote post Address this user | |
Quote:Originally Posted by etapi65 @poka This whole scenario is actually pretty near and dear to me. I sold a house in August 2020 and did not immediately repurchase another home. I wanted a hedge against inflation in the meantime, so I put similar amounts of money into both precious metals (gold/silver) and collectible comic books. As you might guess, the comic book investing was far more fun and in fact, over the 18 months the comic book investment appear to have done far better than the gold/silver investment which is actually down about 5% from when I purchased it. I recently bought a house and the time came to liquidate some of the investment money that I had put into my inflation hedges. I have spent 90 days trying to get something close to current FMV for about 25% of the comic books. That has been a long and slow and complicated process, with significant transaction fees and associated costs. For the Gold on the other hand. I put a few ounces in my car, I drove them to the same place they were purchased and was paid exactly spot price for it. I don't mean to imply that anyone's answer would offend me, but you really do have to consider liquidity when evaluating investments. |
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| Post 26 • IP flag post | ||
 Collector
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poka private msg quote post Address this user | |
Quote:Originally Posted by EbayMafia Congrats with your new house!!! Couple of things. Gold is actually a poor choice against inflation as gold price is a global price whereas you wish to hedge against US inflation. The price of gold is determined based on many other things than US inflation. But as you point out - it is very liquid But I am sure that if you were willing to sell your comics for what you originally paid for them rather than FMV - then you could sell them easier - do I have first dip?  |
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| Post 27 • IP flag post | ||
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Masculinity takes a holiday.
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EbayMafia private msg quote post Address this user | |
Quote:Originally Posted by poka That's mostly true, but if that was the goal then I would not have tried to hedge at all. Many of my comic book purchases came with a 9% sales tax and would likely have a minimum of 8% is selling fees. So break even for the comic books is 17% above purchase price. If one doesn't have the sales tax issue, it's still 8%. Gold had a 2.5% purchase premium and no sales tax. When I sold the gold, I lost a total 5% on the transaction, including all expenses...even though Gold was slightly lower than when I purchased it. |
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| Post 28 • IP flag post | ||
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Masculinity takes a holiday.
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EbayMafia private msg quote post Address this user | |
| and...97% of Ukrainians say keep the gold! |
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| Post 29 • IP flag post | ||
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Collector
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poka private msg quote post Address this user | |
Quote:Originally Posted by EbayMafia proves my point about gold is not necessarily a good hedge against inflation. you lost 5% (in notional terms before inflation) whereas inflation in the same period has been up |
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| Post 30 • IP flag post | ||
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Masculinity takes a holiday.
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EbayMafia private msg quote post Address this user | |
Quote:Originally Posted by poka Which point? That gold is not a good hedge against inflation? |
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| Post 31 • IP flag post | ||
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Collector
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poka private msg quote post Address this user | |
Quote:Originally Posted by EbayMafia yes |
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| Post 32 • IP flag post | ||
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Masculinity takes a holiday.
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EbayMafia private msg quote post Address this user | |
Quote:Originally Posted by poka Probably true. I'm sure there is a basket of investments (oil, etc) that make a much better hedge. I think that owning physical gold satisfies some other needs in people like myself. Having physical and portable stores of value on hand. Not so much a "prepper", but wanting to be prepared for the unexpected. My comment about Ukraine was symbolic...in extreme situations such as societal unrest, nobody is going to count their Hulk 181 as their most important asset. |
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| Post 33 • IP flag post | ||
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poka private msg quote post Address this user | |
Quote:Originally Posted by EbayMafia true but in such situations don’t expect to get fmv for gold. it becomes a barter and you cannot eat gold |
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| Post 34 • IP flag post | ||
 past performance is no guarantee of future actions.
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KatKomics private msg quote post Address this user | |
| Hey now!! I have Ukrainian heritage!! (well Ukrainian/Canadian) Gold all the way! - for a holder of value, easily transportable and liquid Grail for investment purpose, not as liquid, potentially more volatile value at any given point in time - certainly harder to transport on the run!! |
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 I don't want to brag, but cashiers are always checking me out.
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power_struggle55 private msg quote post Address this user | |
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| Post 36 • IP flag post | ||
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Masculinity takes a holiday.
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EbayMafia private msg quote post Address this user | |
Quote:Originally Posted by poka Absolutely true. The FMV of everything changes in extreme situations. It may be a canned ham, jar of peanut butter, tank of gas or vacuum packed coffee that is worth the same as an ounce of gold. (As a "preparer", I keep those things on hand as well, lol). |
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| Post 37 • IP flag post | ||
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Collector
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poka private msg quote post Address this user | |
| but @ebaymafia - the important part is that you managed to buy a house with the proceeds from your previous sale! | ||
| Post 38 • IP flag post | ||
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capnfatz private msg quote post Address this user | |
| Why did you buy the gold in the first place? If that reason is no longer valid or a lower priority for you at this point, then sell the gold and use the funds as you'd like. And now some rain... CGC has graded nearly 16k copies of 181, CBCS another 1k... but there are only 624 9.4s! ... plus maybe a few (read dozens) more that are currently at CGC/CBCS or soon will be. $20k is a lot to spend on one thing, particularly one thing that is the focal point of so much speculation currently. Is a 9.4 181 on its way to $35k, or $50k? I don't know, maybe. Also just want to raise the possibility that future MCU films may not be better, or even as good as, the Iron Man to Avengers run, though the Book of Boba Fett hasn't seemed to dent the prices of Star Wars comics. And the person who takes the Wolverine role (in whatever iteration it may be) has a tough act to follow. |
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poka private msg quote post Address this user | |
Quote:Originally Posted by KatKomics tell that to the Accountant! hope all is well under the circumstances! |
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| Post 40 • IP flag post | ||
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Collector
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poka private msg quote post Address this user | |
Quote:Originally Posted by capnfatz just have in mind that # of graded copies are inflated as same comic book in many cases is counted more than once |
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| Post 41 • IP flag post | ||
 It's like the Roach Motel for comic collectors.
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chester15 private msg quote post Address this user | |
Quote:Originally Posted by poka Seems to me they are both moving in the same direction. The dollar amount (or other currency) converted to gold is now worth less. The dollar amount if held is worth less (buys less) due to inflation. Either way, the dollar value eroded. It's just a matter of which performed worse. |
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| Post 42 • IP flag post | ||
 Collector
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Darkseid_of_town private msg quote post Address this user | |
| Another thing to consider is that Marvel does not have to limit itself to a single wolverine character now that we have a multi verse and alternate timelines as well. You could easily do the hulk vs wolverine story in one alternate universe where there is no professor Hulk, that has an injured arm, and also have the x-23 version in a movie, as well as the original Jackman wolverine, and perhaps even a place where wolverine is a criminal and works within a team that has abomination, hulk, sabtertooth, wendigo, and omega red! | ||
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Collector
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poka private msg quote post Address this user | |
Quote:Originally Posted by chester15 whatever period you are looking at i can easily show you the opposite |
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| Post 44 • IP flag post | ||
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Collector
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capnfatz private msg quote post Address this user | |
Quote:Originally Posted by poka that is true, though i don't know what a numerical impact of that practice would be... probably higher incidence for a book like 181 than a golden age timely. higher resubmission activity in a particular book could also support an assumption of higher speculative interest. Just a quick peak around the web for other 181s available to buy now in various grades... there's a 9.8 up at Goldin auctions now, @$72k currently (wow, do they have some monster books listed in their current auction), plus three other copies. There's the 11 copies currently on ComicLink (with six more in the March auction), plus another 12 on their exchange (including a really nice CBCS 9.6 with an ask of 30k... the OP should put an offer in on that one at $22.5 and see what happens). There's two copies for sale at Pedigree, plus a 9.4 in their upcoming auction. Dave at Collectors Comics has three copies for sale (plus the dozen or so he's hoarding), though Bob Storms at High Grade currently has none available on the site. SO, it is a liquid book, that's for sure, and the demand is definitely there. |
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| Post 45 • IP flag post | ||
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Masculinity takes a holiday.
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EbayMafia private msg quote post Address this user | |
Quote:Originally Posted by poka Years ago I read something about Gold that struck me as interesting. I read that gold runs up well in advance of inflation...it's an early predictor of inflation. Not sure why, but maybe those who are most skittish about inflation are quickest to the gold buying party. It seems that was the case recently. Gold had a significant run up in the first half of 2020 and inflation wasn't really being widely recognized until several months after it reached it's peak price. So when I was in a position to buy in September of 2020, Gold had already peaked and come down a bit from it's highs around August of 2020. It never has returned to those highs, despite widespread acknowledgement of inflation starting closer to the end of 2020. |
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| Post 46 • IP flag post | ||
 Leftover Sundae Gnus
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CatmanAmerica private msg quote post Address this user | |
You can't go wrong with GOLD (that's pretty much all I collect)...    Timely topic, too!  . |
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| Post 47 • IP flag post | ||
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Davethebrave private msg quote post Address this user | |
| Despite the already massive amount of IH181s out there, there are many, many more in high grade condition that are not yet graded. It is not a rare book. As for looking at recent price movements as a way of deciding where to invest… Consider I added a <insert hot collectible here> to my <category> collection in 2018. Its current FMV today is roughly triple what I paid. Therefore I should consider going into the market and purchasing another of that same <hot collectible>? Is that the logic I should apply? It certainly isn’t how I view some of my collectibles that have traded that way. Of course, not every decision needs to be rational. If someone wants the book really badly, then investment returns may not be the highest priority. Finally, advice in a near-vacuum is of limited value. If Buyer A has a few million in assets, none of which are collectibles (or even specifically comics) then converting $20k into a possibly inflated value book could be “okay” (financially) because it improves diversification. If buyer B has assets that are already dominated by comics, even if they have the same total value as Buyer A, it is a riskier choice. Even at equivalent total assets. Gold is a recognized inflation hedge. It is an imperfect one, however, particularly when many things also compete as hedges. Collectibles can also be excellent inflation hedges. The key question is how each correlate with other assets you hold. Edit: btw, not suggesting gold will go up in value. Just that you need to consider a portfolio view. I currently own virtually no gold directly… |
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| Post 48 • IP flag post | ||
 SpongeBob Comics #1 sells for $991!
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Joosh private msg quote post Address this user | |
| I say stick with the gold. I fear the superhero movie genre is on the tail end of its popular run (or at least it’s run of highly effecting book prices.) If I’m right, HULK181 value may suffer greatly. |
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| Post 49 • IP flag post | ||
 I'm waiting.... (tapping fingers).Splotches is gettin old! |
Nuffsaid111 private msg quote post Address this user | |
| Wolverine is a top 5 favorite Marvel character. There will be a day in the not so distant future where we see a trailer; and those claws are exposed in a little 2 second clip. Folks will go nuts. Hugh Jackman was excellent in his role, but when this character hits the MCU I predict this book going beyond nuclear. Again - top 5 favorite character at worst. People with serious money will want those very high grades (9.4 - 9.8). I see this book going to places that we can barely imagine today; and even today's exorbitant prices are bargains for what the future holds for that book. |
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| Post 50 • IP flag post | ||
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I'm waiting.... (tapping fingers). Splotches is gettin old! |
Nuffsaid111 private msg quote post Address this user | |
@GAC Thanks! your likes pushed me over the 10K mark!  |
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| Post 51 • IP flag post | ||
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PDGray private msg quote post Address this user | |
| Stick with the Gold or buy a Rolex - that market has blown UP over the last few years. I have three and they have done MUCH better than my comics have over the same time period. PDG |
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capnfatz private msg quote post Address this user | |
| @Nuffsaid111 disclosure request just for transparency purposes... do you own any copies of 181, or how do you stand to gain on the books appreciation? Apologies, i am not familiar with everyone's background here. I own one mid grade copy, raw, purchased at an LCS 20+ years ago for $17, which i felt I overpaid for. I am risk averse by nature, and view 181, GSX1, ASM 129, etc. as highly overvalued given all the speculation, especially when viewed vs GA or other SA books. Of course, I have clearly been wrong about that for years, as the values continue to climb. Perhaps the factors I view as potential impediments to explosive long term growth will never materialize, such as (1) demographics of core collectors, (2) the hoarding of these issues by spec-dealers, (3) the non-rarity, (4) the assumption that Marvel/Disney can do no wrong, (5) the assumption that physical comics will continue to gain in popularity and demand, and of course the always present question for discerning people... (6) why are so many people selling so many copies at this point given the belief that its a no brainer to keep going higher? I'm a collector, not so much an investor, and have limited discretionary income, so my view on a possible purchase of this book is vastly different from that of an "investor/speculator". |
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Davethebrave private msg quote post Address this user | |
Quote:Originally Posted by PDGray How did you know what collectible I was referring to ;-) Stainless steel Daytonas make even comic fervor look tame. I apply my same reasoning to that market and would favor moving some high flying Rolexes into PP or ALS etc today… not that it generally can be done 1:1 Like most things, I look at pricing and say “absurd” and not going to drop more cash in… but I am not selling either. Even if my personal view is future decline. Purely on the concept of diversification coupled with me being a collector first, investor second. |
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| Post 54 • IP flag post | ||
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Davethebrave private msg quote post Address this user | |
| @capnfatz are you me but just posting through another account? I have a favorable view of the market long-term (10+ years). But all the concerns you cite are ones I think are under-appreciated. I also pause whenever people reference value increases as sure bets. |
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