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Is the great test coming?16725

Masculinity takes a holiday. EbayMafia private msg quote post Address this user
Quote:
Originally Posted by WMorse
Are you sure @EbayMafia?




Yeah, I'm sure. I think you are misunderstanding the inclusion of Long-Term govt bonds in the growing Denominator. It doesn't mean people are getting rich on them. It just means that governments are issuing an ever-increasing amount of them.
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#cgcshill WMorse private msg quote post Address this user
Agreed, they are included in the numerator. Negative real rates certainly aren't the path to wealth!
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TL;DR Davethebrave private msg quote post Address this user
Quote:
Originally Posted by EbayMafia
Quote:
Originally Posted by Davethebrave
My Canadian friends can relate. If your house doubles in value, but so does the “nicer” house down the street.. are you truly wealthier? Unless you can sell and leave the market, you are not truly wealthier.


You are. Your balance sheet is stronger, your borrowing power is greater and the divide between you and non-homeowners has doubled. Many of my customers here in Southern California have blue collar jobs but they've been able to put both their kids and grandkids through the college of their choice because of the home they bought 40 years ago and never sold. Admittedly, interest rates have been historically low for the 30 years that I've been witnessing this. Higher rates could make it harder for someone to access that wealth without getting into the situation you describe.

Quote:
Originally Posted by cesidio
Condition is every thing even if it's rare.

Isn't condition really a second level of rarity? I don't agree with this though, as in real estate, location is everything. Having the right books is more important than having the wrong books in high grade.


Asset inflation wealth effects are in part illusory - a lot is premised on debt. Without taking out debt the only way you realize that wealth is by exiting the inflated system.

That was the main point.

Any accessing of the wealth then involves risk (leverage).

Look, I am taking some admittedly extreme positions to illustrate points. I like real estate and my family benefited (in theory) by massive price inflation in Canada and S California. But unless we sell or leverage the homes there is zero “wealth” realization. Because everything nearby has gone up…

Expenses increase, daily enjoyment or the ability of my parents to actually live a wealthy lifestyle… zero benefit. That is the reality for most Canadians. There is a haves vs have nots too - for sure… but that is just saying that there is worsening conditions (and more resource or wealth polarization).
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TL;DR Davethebrave private msg quote post Address this user
Btw, all of this (house price growth, stock market bubbles, collectibles, etc) is due to massive liquidity - low rates through artificial global government intervention to avoid an asset value collapse in 2008-2009.

That’s it. That is a tenuous basis for wealth creation. The only source of real wealth creation in any economic system is through productivity growth.

That is it.

Productivity growth has been rather pathetic over the past couple decades. It is that disconnect that causes concern.
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#cgcshill WMorse private msg quote post Address this user
Some are waiting on the sidelines @Davethebrave. The great test has been ongoing...
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TL;DR Davethebrave private msg quote post Address this user
Quote:
Originally Posted by WMorse
Some are waiting on the sidelines @Davethebrave.


Hey, I have been forthright about my positions. :-)

I hold assets I think are bubbly. I always try to select “the best of the bunch”… but doesn’t mean I avoid risk.

I always keep dry powder for opportunities.

Be fearful when others are greedy… and greedy when others are fearful :-)
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#cgcshill WMorse private msg quote post Address this user
What a Great Forum!
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Masculinity takes a holiday. EbayMafia private msg quote post Address this user
So, I don't know if all this side discussion got us closer to an answer. Is the great test coming? One thing we learned in 2020 is that a lack of productivity doesn't necessarily lead to an immediate lack of currency. On the whole, I still don't see comic books as more risky than currency.
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TL;DR Davethebrave private msg quote post Address this user
Quote:
Originally Posted by EbayMafia
So, I don't know if all this side discussion got us closer to an answer. Is the great test coming? One thing we learned in 2020 is that a lack of productivity doesn't necessarily lead to an immediate lack of currency. On the whole, I still don't see comic books as more risky than currency.


This I agree with.

But only certain comics ;-)
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Collector CatmanAmerica private msg quote post Address this user
Quote:
Originally Posted by EbayMafia
So, I don't know if all this side discussion got us closer to an answer. Is the great test coming? One thing we learned in 2020 is that a lack of productivity doesn't necessarily lead to an immediate lack of currency. On the whole, I still don't see comic books as more risky than currency.


Currency may be riskier; we should seek second opinions from numismatists!
.
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Collector southerncross private msg quote post Address this user
I remember the glut of the 90s.

Here is a few pics of 90s books my lcs picked up in a massive old stock store that closed it's doors in the 90s











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Masculinity takes a holiday. EbayMafia private msg quote post Address this user
@southerncross Only one copy of Flaming Carrot in those pics. You see, that's why y'all need to jump on Flaming Carrot.
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Collector southerncross private msg quote post Address this user
Oh I didn't see that.
I saw 5 long boxes sorted thru but I think there is another 50 long boxes, think all up there was 100 and there's about 400 books per box,

I grabbed some books at cover price and a couple for free
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Collector southerncross private msg quote post Address this user

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Collector TommyJasmin private msg quote post Address this user
Great thread, great discussion everyone. Too much to comment on and I agree with most of it anyway, so I'll just throw out a few bits of data. Let's look at a couple recent Marvel movies, and their key comic analogies. I didn't see The Eternals, but looking at data for Eternals #1, I'm guessing it must not have been that great:




It's really unusual right now to see a single comic plummet that much. Looking just at graded 9.8 copies, I would call that a bubble of sorts, going from under $1,000 in mid-2020, approaching $3,500 mid-2021, but now dropping off quickly to around $1,200 this month.




Contrast with another recent Marvel movie (Spider-Man) that did really well, and AF #15 is stronger than ever:




I know, it's AF 15, of course it's strong. But the average grade in that chart is VG. Ties to points many of you made about how much grade matters. Of course it matters, but more and more people are happy with any copy. Who among us two years ago saw that collectors would be paying $60-$70K (or more!) for 4.5 AF 15s today?
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@TommyJasmin interesting data and the theme to me is durability of value.

When you have values based on near term cultural impacts with questionable sustainability and no scarcity… I fear the values won’t hold.

Spider-man is not more or less culturally relevant if a movie makes $2bn or $500m. At this point he is iconic. The supply of AF15 is quite high (census) and lots of uncertified copies left too. Price movements around movie releases for an issue like that is just - silly.

Now, if people are parking cash because they view it as a blue chip investment - fine. That demand may spike and could have some durability. But it should not correlate to box office at all. My math says AF15 is overvalued but not massively so (may decline 50%, for example, not 90%). This is because of comparison to AC1. As I pointed out a while back, the AF15 at $3.8m (regardless of grade) suggested a massive upward revaluation of AC1. This is why I expected the 6.0 auction to exceed $3M (which it did), matching the price for the much higher grade sale less than a year ago. The higher AF15 suggest AC1 is still massively undervalued… I see much better upside vs downside prospects for that book even after the AF15 driven revaluation. Even though AF15 prices may be irrational and therefore a key driver under AC1’s revaluation is therefore by extension irrational. The catalyst is less important than fundamentals…

Price action like what you flag for Eternals is another example of absurd MCU spec fervor detached from durable value. Even if Eternals had been a hit there is too little long-term cultural impact and far too much supply to justify those issue prices.

I wouldn’t put any serious $ into Marvel titles today. DC titles generally didn’t get nearly the boost and inflation adjusted (and scarcity adjusted) don’t look bad vs even 20 years ago. Everything is “expensive” but in some ways it just tells us how much our dollars have depreciated in real buying power :-/
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Masculinity takes a holiday. EbayMafia private msg quote post Address this user
Quote:
Originally Posted by TommyJasmin
Ties to points many of you made about how much grade matters. Of course it matters, but more and more people are happy with any copy


Exactly. Location matters, quality of the house is secondary. Comic books are a micro-version of real estate. Better to own the cheapest house in a highly desirable neighborhood than the most expensive house in a lousy neighborhood. Hard to imagine anyone is thrilled that they bought the 9.8 Eternals #1 for $2,500 instead of the 9.4 copy for $400. Can't imagine there can be enough pride of ownership to make up that $2,100 difference.
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Masculinity takes a holiday. EbayMafia private msg quote post Address this user
Quote:
Originally Posted by TommyJasmin
I didn't see The Eternals, but looking at data for Eternals #1, I'm guessing it must not have been that great:


Even if the movie had been a hit, I think a drop-off in demand was predictable, just would have taken an extra 6-12 months. Eternals #1 is available in huge supply with thousands of copies that were never even read. Buyers would have lost interest and changed focus within a year. Consider, Marvel Preview #4, first appearance of Starlord. After the movie was a hit it reached a high in 9.8 of about $3,000. In the time between movies that 9.8 had settled to a low of $1,600. And that was a huge hit movie with a book that is in limited supply. Granted, the magazine format may have limited potential buyers for the book.
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TL;DR Davethebrave private msg quote post Address this user
Quote:
Originally Posted by WMorse



I clearly agree.

However, I could draw an eye opening infographic on computing power, network speed, data access and storage etc and it would be the inverse ;-)

Or, if you “feature adjust” or performance adjust for certain big ticket items like cars, TVs etc.

There are also some interesting things to be learned by how economists adjust Inflation index “baskets” over time.
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