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Is the great test coming?16725

TL;DR Davethebrave private msg quote post Address this user
The bubble of “things” - stocks, bonds, homes, cars, collectibles of all types… may be tested in the next few days, weeks or months.

It will be interesting to see how it all unfolds (if it does at all).

Will fear of equity markets, inflation and interest rates drive people to store cash in tangible items? Highly financed items - perhaps not (homes for example). What about collectibles? What parts of the market would unwind first or most?

Those spending $3m on rare comics with no supply are unlikely to get too uppity (and besides, they need somewhere to p(ark) their wealth). Or will all items sink through contagion and the notion that correlations head to 1?

I have my views. No answers, just predictions. Thought timely to have a dedicated thread.
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It was a one trick pony show but always hilarious. GAC private msg quote post Address this user
Inflation in Canada has reached a 30 year high. Our economy is growing but inflation is keeping pace and the dreaded Stagflation is being discussed. The great test is forthcoming....no clue how it will pan out from a comics value perspective.
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Corrector CaptainCanuck private msg quote post Address this user
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I know a guy who’s been stockpiling gold bars for years.
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Suck it up, buttercup!! KatKomics private msg quote post Address this user
I'm set and could use 10 or 15 years of high interest rates to combat inflation - nothing crazy like 20% in the 80's - but 7% to 10% - would be nice!!

just need the inflation to settle after that 10 to 15 years as I'll then be on a fixed income (more or less) - although...if my investments keep pace with inflation in that fixed income period I will at least not lose any ground.
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TL;DR Davethebrave private msg quote post Address this user
Is this Canadian happy hour or something?
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Suck it up, buttercup!! KatKomics private msg quote post Address this user
Quote:
Originally Posted by Davethebrave
Is this Canadian happy hour or something?


yeah baby!!!

look at all the empties - that's a retirement fund that is!!



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Corrector CaptainCanuck private msg quote post Address this user
Quote:
Originally Posted by Davethebrave
Is this Canadian happy hour or something?

Lol
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It was a one trick pony show but always hilarious. GAC private msg quote post Address this user
Quote:
Originally Posted by Davethebrave
Is this Canadian happy hour or something?


Ha!! you hosers!!!
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Collector the420bandito private msg quote post Address this user
There are going to be some pissed off 'investors' when it all comes crashing down. The smart money is definitely leaving the over-valued stock market.

I for one will be LMAO at the buyers of all those scam WATA games.

Not too worried about my diverse portfolio.
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Collector Briten private msg quote post Address this user
When Marvel movies consistently tank at the box office and the public develop different interests there will definitely be a down turn in the comic market.

We’ve already started to see marvel movies and other comic related properties slow down. I’m starting to get sick of the constant barrage new movies. In the beginning I saw every one of them. Now, I have the mind set of, if I see it in the next 5 years I’m fine.
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Collector jeffreyk1965 private msg quote post Address this user
I think comics..at least the old ones from the early silver age will be just fine. Wait and see I guess.
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Corrector CaptainCanuck private msg quote post Address this user
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It appears CGC’s parent company is doubling down on the collectibles market. Ramping up operations in trading card and philatelic grading.
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Collector michaelekrupp private msg quote post Address this user
Collectibles are generally considered a relatively stable investment, although I don’t think that holds as true in the area of more modern items, where the supply is greater than the real demand. There will be some bloodletting in that area, I think, but golden age and key silver (especially in grade) will remain stable.
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Collector Silversorrow private msg quote post Address this user
Quote:
Originally Posted by KatKomics
I'm set and could use 10 or 15 years of high interest rates to combat inflation - nothing crazy like 20% in the 80's - but 7% to 10% - would be nice!!

just need the inflation to settle after that 10 to 15 years as I'll then be on a fixed income (more or less) - although...if my investments keep pace with inflation in that fixed income period I will at least not lose any ground.
OMG, if my mortgage rate went back up to even 7% my monthly payments would increase by over $1100.......yikes no thank you! (10% would be over $1700/month more.......)
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Masculinity takes a holiday. EbayMafia private msg quote post Address this user
@Davethebrave with enough inflation it's possible we could see a split decision...collectibles rise in nominal dollars but fall in real dollars. In that case people will only be glad they sold their comics if they did something useful with that money...like put a down payment on a house or car with a low fixed interest rate.
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TL;DR Davethebrave private msg quote post Address this user
For benefit of Americans on here a lot of Canadians have variable rate mortgages (and those who don’t, have fixed rates over only a limited time frame). It is a much riskier setup - overall the risk profile is very similar to pre 2009 US (different types of risks but similar in magnitude overall).
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TL;DR Davethebrave private msg quote post Address this user
Just ask Canadians about average lease terms on cars… :-)
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Suck it up, buttercup!! KatKomics private msg quote post Address this user
@Silversorrow -mine will be done in 3yrs 8 months - sooner if I do any double payments!! to hell with the world after that!!

Quote:
Originally Posted by Davethebrave
Just ask Canadians about average lease terms on cars… :-)


what's a car lease??? always buy used (off lease) and I drive them into the ground...Beretta dash display stopped working at 6 or 700,000 km (400,000+ miles) - death at car parts yard, Forerunner (was my moms, then mine then my uncles!) was 22 yrs old (sold at metal scrap yard), Jetta was in the 500-600k range - repairs were getting up there so sold for scrap (16yrs?) - current Jetta is 2014 with only 150k 100,000 miles - I no longer drive 30k a year (19,000 miles) since covid has me working from home - gonna see if this one breaks the 20 yr mark - will put me at getting another car right around retirement!
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Beaten by boat oars Studley_Dudley private msg quote post Address this user
I don't know about collectibles but my Roth, 401K and other retirement accounts are doing solid a.f. I hate working for other people and want to retire in 12 years. 50 is the goal.
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Collector 50AE_DE private msg quote post Address this user
Quote:
Originally Posted by Studley_Dudley
I don't know about collectibles but my Roth, 401K and other retirement accounts are doing solid a.f. I hate working for other people and want to retire in 12 years. 50 is the goal.


Mine has done well too, but the last month has been pretty bad.
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TL;DR Davethebrave private msg quote post Address this user
@KatKomics I’ve never purchased a new car… just speaking to what is typical :-)
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I'm good with splotches. Nuffsaid111 private msg quote post Address this user
When markets and collectibles begin dropping, just re-invest renewable energy from Canadian Geese droppings. They're all over the freakin' place and double up their population every damn year (and poop everywhere).
My gosh I despise those flying rats
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Suck it up, buttercup!! KatKomics private msg quote post Address this user
@Nuffsaid111 Canadian geese....our gift to the world!!
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#cgcshill WMorse private msg quote post Address this user
Quote:
Originally Posted by CaptainCanuck
.
I know a guy who’s been stockpiling gold bars for years.



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Hello, my name is Stu and I'm a shill. HexView private msg quote post Address this user
Quote:
Originally Posted by Nuffsaid111
When markets and collectibles begin dropping, just re-invest renewable energy from Canadian Geese droppings. They're all over the freakin' place and double up their population every damn year (and poop everywhere).
My gosh I despise those flying rats
Kill all the geese and feed them to the homeless. Two problems solved!
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Collector CatmanAmerica private msg quote post Address this user
Quote:
Originally Posted by michaelekrupp
Collectibles are generally considered a relatively stable investment, although I don’t think that holds as true in the area of more modern items, where the supply is greater than the real demand. There will be some bloodletting in that area, I think, but golden age and key silver (especially in grade) will remain stable.


All collectibles have some degree of risk associated, but that risk can usually be tied to numbers and rabid market interest fueled by a variety of factors such as media interest. Bubbles occur when there are too many folks risking capital on speculative popularity (perceived size). When combined with too much quantity to maintain consistent growth or level of interest, risk of the bubble collapsing increases.




For most collectibles, smaller quantities and higher grades can be equated with more stable, long term interest and less risk. Your observations are spot-on, IMO.
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TL;DR Davethebrave private msg quote post Address this user
@CatmanAmerica @michaelekrupp

I agree. I would rather hold one of <100 copies of the world’s first introduction to what is the most important new fictional character of the last 100 years than $3 or $4 million cash. People will likely look back in 20 years and wonder why they sold for so little given their rarity + importance.

Extreme example but illustrates the point.

OTOH books available in the tens of thousands where dollars are chasing purely future dollars based on trends - we may be near a day of reckoning.

I flip through my baseball card collection from the 80s and 90s and on market(risk)-adjusted terms they are worth maybe 0.1-1% of what they were worth back then. So a 99% decline in investment value.

Mickey Mantles, Honus Wagners etc… well, I would have done just fine buying them up even during the peak of that era’s bubble. They would have produced returns in line with or better than the market.

That is one heck of a divergence in the same class of collectibles.
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TL;DR Davethebrave private msg quote post Address this user
The one part I disagree with is “grade” mattering as much over time. I think that the hierarchy will shift more and more towards “issue scarcity overall” combined with “issue long term impact” and away from more artificial notions of grade, variant etc. Truly unique error type variants on already scarce books - sure those will be a premium. But 9.6 vs 9.8 distinction… meh
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Collector michaelekrupp private msg quote post Address this user
@Davethebrave In the case of silver age comics, it is worth considering that there is a substantially higher supply of low to mid grade copies in existence relative to higher grades. My experiences lead me to believe that pre-1964 books seem to be notably scarcer in grade. That seems to be the point where collectors started saving significant amounts of new copies. Ultimately, condition will always determine value, but in the case of more modern books, particularly the modern 9.6 / 9.8 phenomenon, a hard reality check is coming. There is no scarcity of books in this vintage in high grade and it seems to me that people who are into these value the labels more than the books. What is the real difference between a 9.6 and a 9.8? Often it is simply who graded it and on what day. I fully expect the bottom to fall out in this area of the hobby.
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Collector Oxbladder private msg quote post Address this user
Personally, the only thing that's going to happen is the market on bronze through moderns market will cool. There will be no crash. There's nothing to fuel a 90's crash. Publication numbers have remained low with the only added component being lots of variants, which, currently, people still want. Paper shortages, other supply chain issues, damage and second print policies are all factors developing out of this pandemic. Sure sales on some things are high but that isn't across the board and they aren't going to remain that way because we are still dealing with this pandemic and as soon as regular life resumes that extra money being thrown around will diminish. Things have already slowed down quite a bit. The exclusive variant market has notably dropped in my area for example.

The most important thing is that there are not a huge added group of people in the hobby like the 90's. The crash of the card market drove an influx of collectors to try their hand at comics. They fueled the increase in the market then. Sure there was some input from publishers, stores, and collectors, there always is, but the exodus of these added "collectors" created a serious problem in that stores had to order two months in advance and that mean that for everyone bailing out in the intervening time lead to extra copies on shelves and bins. It took several months for stores and publishers to catch up. On the back side of this came exclusive distributing which was the death knell of many retail outlets.

There's no doubt in my mind that the money coming in now is going to slow down but I seriously doubt that there will be any crash like we saw in the market in the 90's. Some books will drop in value but anything that has exceeded the $300-500 range isn't going to drop to under $100 or less. I can see lots of books plateauing including books from the the silver and gold ages. There are lots and lots of untapped potential in existing material though that a huge crash just doesn't seem logical to me. While bronze books have been increasing in value there are still many good investment areas same with gold and silver books. Then there's still lots of room for 80's, and 90's books to increase. While supply is good it is not as easy to find many books in 9.0 or better because of the hobby's habit of labeling all modern books as useless drek. As such, lots of book ended out unbagged and boarded in cheap book boxes all over the continent. Heck there's tons more demand to be created and eventually it will happen, just like Canadian Newsstand and additional printings are now a thing (odd it doesn't stretch to the war time Canadian printings, not the Canadian whites, but actual Canadian printings of US books, it hard to find these now and especially in higher grades than VG).

Anyway, I will stop there. As long as new stuff keeps coming out I am happy. I'm not in this for the money but I will readily admit that it is a nice perk.
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