Can u use old Price Guides to build data for a specific book?16181
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Quote:Originally Posted by Davethebraveand if you took the time to look closely at my posts, you would notice they do have paragraph breaks, just not as you want them. As I said, if its that stressful to read what I post you might wish to consider taking a break from what i post. As for the rude comment, agreed, silence is the best response. |
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| Guess my browser is busted cuz I see no paragraph breaks here Quote: Originally Posted by Darkseid_of_town |
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Quote:Originally Posted by SunvoxAgain I will offer that generlizations are not useful here. SOME Marvel comics have seen price run ups...agreed. But then too so have some DC books...Shazam anyone? For that matter early Aquaman, the character Peacemaker from DC, or Judomaster, or the Batman that Laughs, or Punchline books? DC books are seeing similar price escalations if you look for them...but simple fact is DC has not and is not producing cinematic basis for it in general at the level Marvel has. I agree there are massive bargains for the DC buyer in silver age books that are vastly under-rated and missed opportunities. ( Speaking as the guy who is known for hoarding New gods, and Zatanna early books into the multiples .I own a showcase 22, Green lantern 1, etc ) As far as what you find that is an undervalued key, DC VS Marvel that is entirely dependent on the criteria for your search.....age, condition, characters, the unique quality of any given book, or even the artist, writer or inker? It also might add to the discussion to state that again generalizing has damaged the way this discussion is shaping. By example..the statement about 70's era marvels having the same value as golden age books in 50-100 years. Marvel comics were produced in the golden age....just like DC. Characters like the human torch and sub mariner go back to that time period ....as do many others. The problem I have with arguing that golden age characters will be more valuable in fifty years than Marvel cinematic characters of today is ...the almost certainty of the films being remade and having a rebirth if not one, many more times in the coming hundred years. The current mood or feel at DC is not supporting or keeping their characters in front of the public they way marvel is and has cinematically.This seems to shift, as I remember in the eighties when DC was tearing it up with Batman and SUperman movies and was the golden boy of comic based films. I couldnt agree with you more about enjoying a nice catwoman cover, over a she hulk cover, but I guess my point is why choose? As a famous athlete once said..."Both".....or why choose catwoman when you could have Jojo or any of the other good girl art covers? Here are a few of my faves in that genera...3 from DC first    A few from other publishers besides Marvel and DC    and a few from Marvel    Perhaps a seperate "asset class" from an "alternate industry" but I like them |
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Quote:Originally Posted by DavethebraveApparently so...but again are you a moderator and why are you harassing people? |
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| Ahh . . . I see there is "history" here. Sorry to have been the cause of the latest friction, but we better play nice before my thread gets locked. Thanks to both of you for offering differing opinions. Truth be told I am still very interested to see what a long term chart of annual prices looks like for different specific books. I think it could be enlightening or at least entertaining for those of us that like graphs  |
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If you're interested in the values in any of these let me know. I can see if they are in a place I can dig out lol! |
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| BTW, I also have 48-51 in a digital format. | ||
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| While it wouldnt give you the specific figures for each year, couldnt a person take the current price, and divide that over the number of years since the initial cover price, to derive a general curve over x number of years the book has delivered long term, over the course of wars, declines, etc? By example Avengers 1 in Fine 6.0 was a 12 cent cover price, in 1963. Today it is valued at 12k in GPA...so you have 58 years, and an increase of 11,999.88 Using that system, you get an increase per year of roughly 207 dollars per year for each year since 1963. In 9.2 the book is 72k so a growth of 71,999.88 the book has seen a growth of 1,241.00 dollars per year In 3.0 it is worth 3360.00 The book has shown an increase of 58 dollars per year In 9.6 369k A growth of 6,362.00 per year. While it doesnt demonstrate how the books react to specific stimulus it does give you a broad term ability to see how the book appreciates over long term and all conditions. |
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 Maybe they just like me better. Nah, that's not it.
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Quote:Originally Posted by Sunvox I think it would be interesting as well, as long as you do it in adjusted dollars. I will put out a small bet (say $20) is that you will see a small, steady increase up to about the early to mid 90s. Then by the mid 00s you will see it take off like a rocket. |
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| For the curious few here's an example of what I'm hoping to see . . . On a logarithmic scale you see the trend even when prices were small. Such a trend is lost on a linear view. More importantly when you look at the prices using a logarithmic chart one can easily see when prices go above trend or below trend. In the example below you see clearly that in '99 and '20 Clorox got way ahead of it's long term trend. (It also shows if you want a fool proof inflation hedge invest in Clorox - people will always need to clean things )I hope to see something similar with individual comics when examining annual prices back to '75. Of course, none of this makes a lick of difference in collecting or not collecting, but I just enjoy analyzing stuff, hence my interest. To me it's part of the fun I bring into this hobby. Clearly it's NOT for everyone as I'm certain most folks really couldn't give to bits what the "long term" trend is. They are more interested in what's happening today, and I get that totally.   |
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Quote:Originally Posted by OGJackster Thanks for the offer of help; hopefully Byrdi doesn't mind taking the time to share the data since he has a complete run. If not I see I can buy old copies on Ebay. Too bad the old copies aren't digitized. Or, does someone know where they are digitized? |
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Quote:Originally Posted by SunvoxI had understood what you were shooting for here, but the problem with such methods is generally the ability to misinterpret results. For instance you might build that chart for a given book, and feel that due to the economy it went much higher a given year when in fact a rumor of a movie was the culprit or perhaps a given storyline caused the entire run to heat up....you would require a broad sampling of books across many genera to determine cause and effect, or anything beyond a simple chart of the books path upwards.Essentialy what I did in the example above, while highly abbreviated is also the least likely to lose anything in translation. either way a fascinating idea, and lots of fun. |
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 "There, their, they're."
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GAC private msg quote post Address this user | |
| I'm not trying to be negative with this post (and if this has been already answered then I do apologize) but what is the relevance or point of documenting historical values going that far back beyond curiosity? If it's just to map values then that's cool but is there any real insight into future values that can be extrapolated from data points going that far back? Or is this simply a documenting effort? | ||
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Quote:Originally Posted by GAC There are YouTubers (and academics) that argue comics are collectables that will lose cultural relevance and do not represent investments in the same manner as old coins or famous literature. I think it would be interesting to see first hand if classic rare comics have a) kept value in a steady manner relative to inflation and b) have recently exceeded their long term trend. D_of_T is correct that one would be remiss to discount possible extraneous reasons like movies etc for individual books, but I feel it would not take but a handful of examples plotted over 50 years to see a general trend in classic comic values or conversely show that there is no trend and comics move in a random fashion based only on extraneous events and current popularity. Again, it does nothing to change how a typical collector today will choose what to buy or not. It is interesting to me as an exercise in learning more about the history and potential future of comic values. |
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GAC private msg quote post Address this user | |
Quote:Originally Posted by Sunvox I understand. From a comparison standpoint to other collectibles that you mentioned, I understand the relevance of this exercise. I'd definitely be interested in the results. |
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I'm starting to realize the difficulty in my endeavor. There are a great many variables. However, I did just now join GPAnalysis and went looking for a book that had data that was old and plentiful. Just a quick peek at AMS 13 in CGC 4.5 and I see a) prices do NOT move along a steady trend and b) the price jump this year is not significantly different than previous jumps year to year . . . however, it is clear that the market cycles often and the valleys are long. Now to figure out how to come up with a price that is relatable to Overstreet's Good, Fine, Mint and then fill in the back years and then do this for a dozen popular names. Should keep me busy for a month or two   |
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| @Sunvox If you smooth the data by using 3 year intervals, it definitely tells a more consistent story. The averages in 3 year intervals going backwards for 18 years are: 1200 650 325 260 280 140 That's a pretty graphable set of data. |
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Quote:Originally Posted by EbayMafia I'm lovin' that idea; with an added two decades it will be interesting. I must admit though, I've been scouring GPAnalysis for a couple of hours now, and two things seem to be forming in my mind. 1) High prices are sometimes shill bids, and 2) the internet has driven lesser books crazy. I could be wrong about those two ideas, and it wouldn't be the first time in my life, but that's what it seems like so far. |
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 Where's his Bat-package?
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Byrdibyrd private msg quote post Address this user | |
| @Sunvox If you still want those Overstreet numbers, here are the values for Action #29 & Detective #122 from the first 10 volumes. That's everything from the 70's, and back then Overstreet only listed prices for Good (G), Fine (F), and Mint (M). Action Comics #29 1970: G = $15 F = $17.50 M = $20 1972: G = 17 F = 21 M = 25 1973: G = 17 F = 23.50 M = 30 1974: G = 20 F = 30 M = 40 1975: G = 22.50 F = 33.75 M = 45 1976: G = 25 F = 37.50 M = 50 1977: G = 20 F = 40 M = 60 1978: G = 25 F = 50 M = 75 1979: G = 27.50 F = 55 M = 82.50 1980: G = 35 F = 70 M = 105 Detective Comics #122 1970: G = $2 F = $2.50 M = $3 1972: G = 3 F = 3.50 M = 4 1973: G = 3 F = 4 M = 5 1974: G = 4 F = 6 M = 8 1975: G = 5 F = 7.50 M = 10 1976: SAME 1977: G = 4 F = 6 M = 12 1978: G = 6 F = 12 M = 18 1979: G = 7 F = 14 M = 21 1980: G = 9 F = 18 M = 27 Let me know if this is what you're looking for and I'll continue. |
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Sunvox private msg quote post Address this user | |
Quote:Originally Posted by Byrdibyrd Totally awesome! Thanks! No rush but I’m interested in prices up to 2002 which is when I have data starting. Now to figure out how to turn it into a usable graph |
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Where's his Bat-package?
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Byrdibyrd private msg quote post Address this user | |
| It'll take a little while to get it all together, but I can get you up to 2002 (I'll probably forget and breeze straight past that, of course...). No problem! |
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Byrdibyrd private msg quote post Address this user | |
| @Sunvox Got the 80's here for you. Added a couple notes because the way Action #29 was listed changed slightly. Action Comics #29 1981: G = $35 F = $70 M = $130 1982: G = 25 F = 75 M = 160 *1983: G = 30 F = 85 M = 180 1984: G = 35 F = 100 M = 210 1985: G = 40 F = 120 M = 255 1986: G = 45 F = 135 M = 315 *1987: G = 50 F = 150 M = 350 1988: G = 57 F = 170 M = 400 1989: G = 60 F = 180 M = 420 1990: G = 82 F = 205 M = 490 Detective Comics #122 1981: G = $12 F = $24 M = $36 1982: G = 9 F = 25 M = 50 1983: G = 12 F = 35 M = 70 1984: G = 15 F = 45 M = 90 1985: G = 17.50 F = 52 M = 115 1986: G = 19 F = 57 M = 135 1987: G = 23 F = 70 M = 160 1988: G = 28 F = 84 M = 195 1989: G = 32 F = 95 M = 225 1990: G = 51 F = 128 M = 305 *1983: Action #29 is listed as having a bondage cover, but it is still grouped with #26 ~ #30. *1987: Action #29 stops being listed as having a bondage cover. More coming your way. I'll get the 90's next. |
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Byrdibyrd private msg quote post Address this user | |
| @Sunvox Okay, I thought I was going to wait until tomorrow to tackle the 90's, but that clearly didn't happen. This set of values has a number of notes because both books finally differentiated from the pack. Action Comics #29 1991: G = $90 F = $225 M = $540 1992: G = 100 F = 250 M = 600 1993: G = 108 F = 325 M = 650 ***1994: G = 108 F = 325 M = 700 1995: G = 121 F = 365 M = 850 *****1996: G = 175 F = 525 M = 1400 1997: G = 175 F = 525 M = 1600 1998: G = 189 F = 567 M = 1700 1999: G = 200 F = 600 M = 1800 2000: G = 237 F = 711 M = 1900 Detective Comics #122 *1991: G = $56 F = $140 M = $335 **1992: G = 75 F = 190 M = 450 1993: G = 79 F = 238 M = 475 ****1994: G = 85 F = 257 M = 600 1995: G = 100 F = 300 M = 700 1996: G = 103 F = 310 M = 825 1997: G = 111 F = 333 M = 890 1998: G = 106 F = 318 M = 950 1999: G = 112 F = 336 M = 950 2000: G = 125 F = 375 M = 1000 *1991: Detective #122 listed as having the 1st Catwoman – c, but it’s still grouped with #121 ~ #123, #125 ~ #127, #129, #130. #124 & #128 have differentiated already because they have Joker – c/s. **1992: Detective #122 & #126 differentiate and are listed together. #126 has a Penguin – c. ***1994: Action #29 listed as having the 1st Lois Lane cover, but it’s still grouped with #26 ~ #30. ****1994: Detective #122 differentiates completely and the 1st Catwoman – c is no longer on par with a generic Penguin – c. *****1996: Action #29 differentiates and gets its own listing. I'll get to the last couple years (from the naughty oughties) soon. They're stacked behind other volumes right now so I'll need to move some stuff. Not a big deal, but I just got my vaccine booster today and my desire to move chunky books around is not at its best.  |
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Davethebrave private msg quote post Address this user | |
| So it looks roughly like the S&P 500, overall. Not surprising. The very earliest price movements would be disconnected a bit (cover price+ growth) and ex post analysis would be less meaningful due to dataset selection bias. Again, nothing surprising and very much in-line with academic papers on returns analysis. |
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Davethebrave private msg quote post Address this user | |
| What you would see if the data were done on Marvel issues over the same periods (plus up to today) is a relative breakout in Marvel key prices over the past 5-10 years and a larger recent spike over the past 3 years. That is just trading data, not fundamentals. The fundamentals dislocation for Marvel keys is even more severe. |
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Byrdibyrd private msg quote post Address this user | |
| Here's the last bit from years 2001 & 2002. Action Comics #29 2001: G = $263 F = 789 NM = 2500 *2002: G = 273 F = 819 VF = 1705 NM = 3000 Detective Comics #122 2001: G = $132 F = 395 NM = 1250 *2002: G = 136 F = 408 VF = 852 NM = 1500 *2002: Overstreet value array changes from G-F-NM to G-F-VF-NM Please note that the value array also changed back in 1989 from G-F-M to G-F-NM. I unfortunately didn't catch it at the time, but honestly, I don't think it really has much impact. It's still a low-mid-high value array either way. |
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Sunvox private msg quote post Address this user | |
Quote:Originally Posted by Davethebrave Just got home late last night from a work trip and will work on this a bit today, but your thoughts and questions are exactly what I'm interested in seeing. Without question this is a big project for me and will likely require that I invest in a set of old Overstreet guides of my own. I would love to be able to create a spread sheet where I can input the data for a specific book and compare it to a group average. Who knows, maybe I can turn this into some data fanatic website in the future. Many, many thanks to BdB for taking the time to help get me started. Greatly appreciated! |
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 I live in RI and Rhode Islanders eat chili with beans.
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esaravo private msg quote post Address this user | |
| @Sunvox - Good luck with this! I have about a dozen or more Overstreet Price Guides starting from the mid-1970s if you need more data (or if you want to obtain the guides for yourself). | ||
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Byrdibyrd private msg quote post Address this user | |
| @Sunvox My pleasure!! Let me know if you need anymore info. My Overstreets aren't going anywhere. Also, if you're considering getting a set yourself, check out Gemstone Publishing, because they still have reasonably priced facsimiles of the first two Overstreets from 70/71 and '72. I understand there was a limited print run on these, so they won't be around forever. | ||
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