What is the bubbliest book of the bubble?15825
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 You can't get good wood on the ball every time.
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HotKeyComics private msg quote post Address this user | |
| Most seem to think that there is a market correction coming in some form. My question is what is the one book (if any) you are watching to gauge this correction? Mine is ASM 316. This has went up pretty hard the last year or so and it isn't any real key, other than being the first cover appearance of Venom (arguably) and theres multiple earlier appearances available. I think this will come back down to well under $1,000 in a 9.8 and probably even under $500 and I also think it will be one of the first ones that is sold by people seeing the correction happening and not wanting to lose a ton.  |
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 I'd like to say I still turned out alright, but that would be a lie.
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flanders private msg quote post Address this user | |
This was selling for upwards of $2000 in a 9.8. I expect it to drop to less than $1000, maybe even less than $750. I've always liked McFarlane's art and the cover concept is great, but I've never been a fan of the way he draws the Hulk. And this Incredible Hulk #345, showing as a high sale of $1275 and a total of 93 in 9.8 copies according to the CGC census. Hideous cover that I expect will drop to less than $250 as the census count increases, but maybe people like it and I have bad taste. Here's a current ebay listing for it: clickable text And a comiclink auction that might come back down to earth: clickable text  |
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Davethebrave private msg quote post Address this user | |
| TLDR: IH181 - a brave and bold call but likely the best bellwether. Long version: Oh wow, single book as bellwether? So many modern variants to choose from. But those are small $ bubbles. Tons of MCU books. The IH340 and ASM316 are great mid-tier examples. In high- tier for me is between ASM129 and IH181. These two books are massively overvalued relative to their supply. No scarcity - literally dozens (or hundreds) for sale every day. Many appear held by dealers or high volume sellers (flippers/traders). They are blue chip books but are simply overvalued today. AF15 is of course a bellwether on relative overpricing of Marvel vs DC given its latest sale price vs AC1 or Tec27. Massively overvalued vs scarcity though it will of course retain a $1m+ status… Too many to choose from on the Marvel side but I will just go with the unpopular opinion and say IH181 despite many, many years of solid up-trend. It won’t collapse but it could correct 40-50% easily. What is NOT going to correct significantly and is not in a bubble is anything DC. I didn’t check Overstreet before my comments above but an easy way to see relative bubble is probably to compare Overstreet values to where graded books are trading and see where the biggest disconnects are. |
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 If the viagra is working you should be well over a 9.8.
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xkonk private msg quote post Address this user | |
| Hulk 340 is a good candidate. I would also go with Wolverine 88, first time Wolverine and Deadpool meet. It's nowhere near either of their first appearances, not all that great a cover (it's fine), and notable only if they introduce Wolverine in the next Deadpool movie. There's really no reason 9.8s should be going for $400-$500. | ||
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 Pictures? We don't need no stinking pictures.
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brysb private msg quote post Address this user | |
FF #186 in 9.8 just sold for $500 on Worldwide Comics site!! I cannot believe this was listed at such a high price and shocked that it actually sold so quickly!  |
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I'd like to say I still turned out alright, but that would be a lie.
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flanders private msg quote post Address this user | |
They mention the ASM #316 sales data and CBCS seems to be doing well  . It starts at the 10:39 mark: |
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 Collector
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Darkseid_of_town private msg quote post Address this user | |
| There are alot of books that fit in this category, new variant covers, star wars titles across a massive bunch of newer material, ASM 300 (also not a rare book even in high grade) , Asm 361, many of the recently hot batman issues, deaths of many characters recently , and many failed spec books, for instance the recent issues in Daredevil, or Thor, or even Venom and So forth. What you wont really see is silver and early bronze age stuff cooling down much or dropping, although they may level off and remain static for several months. The silver grails will continue punching past the more well established older books as they punch the validity tab for many of the more well heeled collectors out there building collections . By example a recent sale of Incredible hulk 1, in 3.0 at 27,500....no real movie spec or reason, just...cause. Tales of Suspense 39 continues climbing, as does FF1, and Jim 83, establishing solidly that none of them are particularly concerned with where they are pricewise compared to golden age material. I think the smart money right now is on about any FF older books, or x men issues from about 150-300....those x men issues are full of so many key intros and first appearances you would need a week to list them all, and youo can bet Disney will tap into alot of that, and soon |
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Davethebrave private msg quote post Address this user | |
| Silver and early bronze grails are of course not immune to a correction. Just like anything else value-related, there tends to be mean reversion following significant peaks or valleys of growth (rates). Any “smart money” (and I know that segment better than most) will look at the entirety of the market. Some “smart money” is also willing to prop up and overpay so long as one or both of the following hold true: 1) it is not their money being invested (hedge funds/pe funds make a lot of $ on taking cuts of returns and therefore inherently prefer volatility) and/or 2) they can exit faster than others when things start heading south Early bronze age and silver age grails have been targets of institutional investors. They will ride a momentum wave. They are often far from being all that smart (I know this part better than most) but they are willing to take risks for returns since most risks are ultimately borne by others. So, the bubble books absolutely include BA and SA books and absolutely can come down in price. |
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Davethebrave private msg quote post Address this user | |
| Also, “well-heeled” collectors seek scarcity. The fact, for example, that a schmuck (let’s say a schmuck like me, just for example) can go and purchase an AF15 (not a 9.6) rather “easily” makes it less impressive for someone else who also has an AF15, just in a higher grade. They mention their ownership of a copy (no-one would mention the grade) at a cocktail party and -!dismay!- three others chime in that they too have copies… how embarrassing ;-) An AC1 - not so much. The odds of another owner even in that sort of crowd, is limited by true scarcity. An AC1 is truly rare and just owning a complete copy puts someone in a very different group than AF15 (as awesome as AF15 is)… but wow they (all AC1s) are expensive and rare - period. The overall scarcity of books will be of increasing importance as the cross-over from other collecting areas occurs. You can’t go and find a “low grade” 250GTO or “low grade” Type57 at a reasonable price. They are all rare and all mind-boggling expensive. The books that are in bubble territory are those that owe too much value to “false” scarcity. Scarcity due solely to grade level, hype (movie! Wow!!!) or variant covers/random distinctions (newstand! Foil!) Note some of these are tried and true (tested and failed) in the 90s bubble. Some are newer (grading distinction/specific movie universe hype/internet). AF15 is a good example but not the most dramatic. At least it is a bit scarce and of course massive demand. But it will not sustain its standing vs truly rare books like Tec27 and AC1. Indicative of the Marvel bubble overall and net era hype. IH181 is still the bellwether for me but AF15 is the most visible example today. |
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 Collector
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xvipah private msg quote post Address this user | |
I love me some Miles, and I think this issue in general, both the original and variant, will stay valuable. But the prices right now are way over the top: |
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 I live in RI and Rhode Islanders eat chili with beans.
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esaravo private msg quote post Address this user | |
| I think that most books that appear on Key Collector's Hot 10 and Trending Lists shoot up quickly, peak for a few weeks, and settle back down. Many will end higher than before the rush, but very few will have staying power and be considered true keys. Go to You Tube and watch some of those videos from 6 months ago or longer, and see how many of those books are still of interest to anyone. | ||
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 Collector*
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Towmater private msg quote post Address this user | |
| The book that jumps into my head as being overvalued is Something Is Killing the Children 1. Cover A has over 1800 copies on the census. Cover B (Lee Chung) has almost 700 on the census. The unlocked retailer edition has over 1500 on the census. The Comics and Oddities edition has 136 on the census. The NYCC/Diamond Retailer Edition has 81 on the census. The NYCC "Virgin" Edition has 81 on the census. We haven't gotten to the 2nd, 3rd, 4th, yada, yada, yada printings. It is a first edition and has loads of variants. Look, it is the 1990's bubble all over again played out in 1 book. If you want an undervalued book to go after then I'd look into The Incredible Hulk 2. That's the first green hulk. It has a total of 1277 copies on the CGC census. People forget that the Incredible Hulk was not a popular series when it came out. It was canceled after 6 issues. Also, Bone 1 has an extremely low census total. Maybe the best comic series ever written. |
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Davethebrave private msg quote post Address this user | |
| @Towmater another undervalued book is AC23. Lex Luthor is the most iconic comic book villain along with the Joker. Valuable book but massively undervalued given how rare it is. Great cover to boot! It is a book I would like to have many copies of but I prefer diversification. Being a villain first appearance the value comparison is of course different but in the villain category it is extremely undervalued. Full disclosure: In terms of bias I have an ASM129 (tied for most overvalued) and an AC23 (most undervalued). I would love to own more AC23 copies but one ASM129 is the most I would ever own - in today’s market environment. |
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Collector
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Darkseid_of_town private msg quote post Address this user | |
| I notice that the various guides, and grading services all tend to promote hulk 2 as the first green hulk, and always have but its basically a rather complex issue. The first issue he appears several times in the book and allowing for the mixture of lighting, shadows and how its shown, he is green in a few panels and grey in others. In the second issue and moving forward they made a much more obvious effort to color him green though....still there are panels in issue 1 where he does appear green. (Not sure how its shown in the reprints or if they are faithful to the original coloration ) Anyways, I do agree hulk 1-6 are all rather hard to find books especially in higher grades, and are undervalued consistently. |
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Collector
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Darkseid_of_town private msg quote post Address this user | |
Quote:Originally Posted by Davethebravecould, should and would.....and as many other cute words as possible...but AREN'T ...check your GPA or gocollect and make note, books like TOS 39 and Hulk 1 continue posting gains almost monthly and are not leveling off nor are they particularly getting the hint they were supposed to drop cause someone compared them to an investment fund,or antique car and said they should. The past fifty years of pricing can readily be checked for them...but lets see...cover price ten cents, hulk 1 in 3.0 sold for...oh , thats right 27,500 a month ago. AF 15 just set a world record for price as well... those books do not lose ground normally, and seldom drop much. .....go back and check your price guides, its all there in black and white for the last fifty years. |
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Towmater private msg quote post Address this user | |
It isn't that complex an issue. CBCS labels even list it that way. |
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Davethebrave private msg quote post Address this user | |
| We may learn a bit about which books are most bubble-like and speculative as the tax law implementation changes. It will make buy and flip more costly for the casual speculators. It may decrease supply of the already scarce issues. Combined with the federal/state cash spigots being closed I suspect the spec books will get hit hardest. The truly scarce books are unlikely to be impacted and perhaps even positively. @Darkseid_of_town I couldn’t care less if you agree with my assessment. No harm, no foul. |
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Darkseid_of_town private msg quote post Address this user | |
| I guess people do not take the time to read anymore . I think I clearly even said that the grading companies and price guides tend to also state the idea it is the first green hulk. Much like x men 266 being listed as the first Appearance of gambit or many other questionable things that are known to be on labels of course, there are times it IS more complex. I actually said that... "I notice that the various guides, and grading services all tend to promote hulk 2 as the first green hulk, and always have but its basically a rather complex issue." For those that do take a moment to read, here you go. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hulk#:~:text=Created%20by%20writer%20Stan%20Lee%20and%20artist%20Jack,issue%20of%20The%20Incredible%20Hulk%20%28May%201962%29.%20 In the debut, Lee chose grey for the Hulk because he wanted a color that did not suggest any particular ethnic group.[15] Colorist Stan Goldberg, however, had problems with the grey coloring, resulting in different shades of grey, and even green, in the issue. After seeing the first published issue, Lee chose to change the skin color to green.[16] Green was used in retellings of the origin, with even reprints of the original story being recolored for the next two decades, until The Incredible Hulk vol. 2, #302 (December 1984) reintroduced the grey Hulk in flashbacks set close to the origin story. An exception is the early trade paperback, Origins of Marvel Comics, from 1974, which explains the difficulties in keeping the grey color consistent in a Stan Lee written prologue, and reprints the origin story keeping the grey coloration. Since December 1984, reprints of the first issue have displayed the original grey coloring, with the fictional canon specifying that the Hulk's skin had initially been grey. So despite not being intentional nor planned, the GREEN hulk does appear in issue 1 despite what any label says, although he was supposed to be grey.....making it a ...why yes, complex issue! |
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Davethebrave private msg quote post Address this user | |
| Pricing/value threads always end well lol | ||
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Collector*
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Towmater private msg quote post Address this user | |
Under your view, Issue #1 should also be the first issue of the red or orange Hulk because of the panels on page 9 Also, it should be listed as the first flesh tone, and yellow hulk because of page 8's panels  The only green panel I could find is very late in the book. It has one panel on the page with yellow hands during the change, then a grey hands panel, then a green face panel, the Hulk is grey in the next 2 panels, and finally is yellow in the last panel.  The above shows that the comic was poorly colored, and more than likely rushed. It is why it isn't a complex issue and CBCS and CGC label issue 2 as the first Green Hulk. |
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Darkseid_of_town private msg quote post Address this user | |
| poorly colored, rushed...mutliple colors of hulk etc. But definitely not complex...no of course not. Hilarious! | ||
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Towmater private msg quote post Address this user | |
| It isn't complex at all. I hope that CBCS will get on the change to issue 1's label. We just found out that it should reflect that it is the: 1st yellow, green, flesh, grey, orange/red-skinned Hulk   |
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Darkseid_of_town private msg quote post Address this user | |
| and perhaps they should add that it isnt a complex issue as well...you know, just to allow for all the silliness | ||
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I'd like to say I still turned out alright, but that would be a lie.
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flanders private msg quote post Address this user | |
Quote:Originally Posted by Towmater I noticed this about a month ago but have chosen to be in denial about it since I love the series and also own 2 copies of cover A. With a possible tv series coming out I wanted to see how the census count compared to the Walking Dead #1, so I could see how much room it has to grow before selling a copy. Shockingly the census count isn't even close to the WD numbers, which are far lower than I expected. |
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 Captain Accident
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the420bandito private msg quote post Address this user | |
Quote:Originally Posted by flanders I enjoy SIKTC but they need to hit a homerun with House of Slaughter. World expansion is key to the success and longevity of this series. |
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