The 9.8 to 9.6 Price Gap15614
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 Masculinity takes a holiday.
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EbayMafia private msg quote post Address this user | |
| I always assumed that the price gap between 9.8 and 9.6 would close. Many people agree that it should close. Many even agree that there is enough subjectivity at that level of grading to often make the two grades interchangeable. But It's one of those predictions that I have been undeniably wrong about. Anyone think the price gap will close in the future...or is it just going to remain or get wider? | ||
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 I'd like to say I still turned out alright, but that would be a lie.
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flanders private msg quote post Address this user | |
| I'll take a highly uneducated stab at it. I remember you being ahead of the curve and deciding to purchase several ASM 9.6s many months or maybe even years ago. My hunch is that their percentage share of the census will have something to do with how wide the gap is, specifically if the 9.8s and 9.6s have a low census share. Here's some data on current values and CGC census info: ASM 298 9.8 = 12.3% of all copies Current price = $800 9.6 = 25% of all copies Current Price = $300 = 38% of the 9.8 price ASM 299: 9.8 = 17% of all copies Current price = $900 9.6 = 27.5% of all copies Current Price = $300 = 1/3 of the 9.8 price ASM 316 (This is actually very surprising 52.6% of all copies are 9.6 or 9.8) 9.8 = 23.9% of all copies Current price = $1200 9.6 = 28.7% of all copies Current Price = $500 = 42% of the 9.8 price ASM 252 9.8 = 10.5% of all copies Current price = $1700 9.6 = 23.2% of all copies Current Price = $700 = 41% of the 9.8 price Conclusion: My hypothesis of me being uneducated has been confirmed. |
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Masculinity takes a holiday.
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EbayMafia private msg quote post Address this user | |
Quote:Originally Posted by flanders Actually I see some consistency in the pattern there. It's along the lines of what I was thinking...when a dealer sends in 100 unsold copies for a 9.8 grade screen maybe he gets 10-15 through. But what happens if he expands the screen to 9.6? Based on your numbers it goes to 35-45 copies getting through. For every one that can pass a 9.8 grade screen there's probably 2-3 that can pass 9.6. |
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 Have I told you about the time I dropped off 3,000 comics at SDCC?
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Scifinator private msg quote post Address this user | |
Quote:Originally Posted by flanders @flanders - Amazing, that is exactly the work I did not want to do. |
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 " . "
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Davethebrave private msg quote post Address this user | |
| The specific grades should of course be meaningless. Should always be about relative scarcity and the distribution curve of the books. A 9.0 in one book could (and should) be viewed as far more important than a 9.8 or 9.6 in another (extreme example, but take AC1 vs AF 15). In modern books the separation or value distance should be dictated by those two features as well (relative scarcity/distribution). Of course we also have two market broad categories of imperfections (NOT an exclusive list but perhaps the most critical): 1) the certainties of distribution and actual grade (uncertainty increases inversely proportional to age and importance in terms of distribution certainty). 2) imperfect ACCESS to the above info and perhaps even more, imperfect interpretation of info #2 is driven both by lack of some information but also the interpretation of info by the market plus non FMV motivations. There are simply more hobbyists, flippers and others setting “market” prices than those with an understanding of market prices over long periods. It is akin to how meme stocks trade - irrationally. It doesn’t mean one group has a distinct short term advantage over the other, just that the former introduces more randomness. It is like a strong poker player - accustomed to playing with pros - would often favor playing against a “lesser” pro than a random amateur, in the short run. Less variability vs a pure and irrational gambler. Over a long run, however, they would be more likely to favor playing against the amateur… So did I do an adequate job of answering your question without answering it? |
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 PLOD
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theCapraAegagrus private msg quote post Address this user | |
Quote:Originally Posted by EbayMafia Not until the "must have highest reasonably-attainable grade" mentality goes away. I'm not sure if I can see that happening. |
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 I'm waiting.... (tapping fingers).Splotches is gettin old! |
Nuffsaid111 private msg quote post Address this user | |
| The price gap between the inherently subjective 9.6 and 9.8 will happen when folks become brighter/smarter. That's not happening to the human race. That said, I'm off for breakfast to a 4.7 star restaurant; instead of the 4.6 star restaurant for 50% off, because the food experts rated it higher. It will be better for sure  |
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 I've spent years perfecting my brand of assholery.
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DrWatson private msg quote post Address this user | |
| A good 9.6 can pass for almost any 9.8 all day long. Don't pay for the hype unless it's under $100 and published after circa 1990. | ||
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 Collector
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infinityG private msg quote post Address this user | |
| How many spine breaks does it take to get a 9.8? 1 $800 How many spine breaks does it take to get a 9.6? 2 $200 A friend and I always joke how silly this is. |
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 I had no way of knowing that 9.8 graded copies signed by Adam Hughes weren't what you were looking for.
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drchaos private msg quote post Address this user | |
| Instead of thinking diagonal line you should be expecting more of a curve. At both extremes the comic can go very high or close to zero with each change in grade. |
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 Collector
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Huntergreene2 private msg quote post Address this user | |
Quote:Originally Posted by infinityG How many spine breaks does it take to sideline the Batman? |
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| Post 11 • IP flag post | ||
 Collector
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Sysm private msg quote post Address this user | |
| If anything the 9.6 will pull upwards. I'd rather the gap widen with 9.6s being even more undesirable so I can buy them. | ||
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 past performance is no guarantee of future actions.
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KatKomics private msg quote post Address this user | |
| I wonder how many collectors have some sort of OCD? I honestly think that plays a factor - there are those who want all 9.8 for a run and even for books that are basically worthless (i.e. no major/minor keys, no desired story line etc.etc.) will pay that $100 or more for a slabbed 9.8 rather than $10 for a 9.8 raw book - I think these people contribute to the massive gap between a 9.6 and 9.8 |
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I'm waiting.... (tapping fingers). Splotches is gettin old! |
Nuffsaid111 private msg quote post Address this user | |
Quote:Originally Posted by KatKomics This 100% |
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I've spent years perfecting my brand of assholery.
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DrWatson private msg quote post Address this user | |
| That is certainly part of it and the Registry at the cgc feeds that mind set as well. | ||
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 If the viagra is working you should be well over a 9.8.
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xkonk private msg quote post Address this user | |
| Part of the mentality, I think, is that there is no such thing as a raw 9.8 book. Would you buy a book on eBay or some other website that the seller said was 9.8 and pay 9.8 prices for it? Or even 9.6? Do a lot of people even feel that confident with a book in their hand saying that it's a 9.8? If there's a book you want, even a silly cheap book, the 9.8 official grade has an appeal. Tied to that, of course, is what @theCapraAegagrus said about people wanting 'the best'. If people are happy with 'NM' or 'a great looking book', then the mentality goes away. |
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I've spent years perfecting my brand of assholery.
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DrWatson private msg quote post Address this user | |
| I can hold a book in my hand and say that the cgc will grade it a 9.8. It isn't as hard as it used to be. Also, there are dealers out there that if they told me that a book is 9.8, I would believe them, even more so on a 9.6. |
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