What do you expect the industry landscape to look like in 2022?15049
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EbayMafia private msg quote post Address this user | |
| @Davethebrave One other thing I think the Market Cap analogy misses is the value of liquidity. I know you've seen thinly-traded companies that get stuck in a value trap due to a lack of liquidity in their stock. The 100 copies of Batman #1 can't be cut up in order to match the liquidity of a Hulk 181. | ||
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Masculinity takes a holiday.
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EbayMafia private msg quote post Address this user | |
Quote:Originally Posted by Jesse_O I remember the first time I found a 50% off promo code from Mile High. Comic buying madness what about to ensue! 60 minutes later I just felt tricked and stupid...wanted to send an email requesting my hour of life back. |
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 Collector
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Darkseid_of_town private msg quote post Address this user | |
Quote:Originally Posted by EbayMafiaThis wins the internet for today !!! |
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 Collector
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CatCovers private msg quote post Address this user | |
Quote:Originally Posted by EbayMafia Occasionally, they'll offer 60% off, which actually brings their prices down to the "Huh, that's kinda high" level. |
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Masculinity takes a holiday.
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EbayMafia private msg quote post Address this user | |
Quote:Originally Posted by CatCovers lol, 60% just means that it takes longer to do the math...which makes you feel even more stupid by time you finally surrender. |
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Towmater private msg quote post Address this user | |
| I think there will be a decline in pricing across the board through over the next 18 to 24 months. We are due for a correction. Since Jan 2020 months books like GSX-Men 1, Hulk 181, and ASM 300 have seen stupid price increases. I've no idea how long the drop in pricing will last but it will be interesting to watch. Remember not everything goes up, up, and up. My favorite example is Outcast and all the speculation that book got. Prices went through the roof. Then the TV show didn't do well and got cancelled after 2 seasons. What happened? The book crashed in price. |
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 Beaten by boat oars
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Studley_Dudley private msg quote post Address this user | |
| Personal hope is less than a crash and more than a correction. | ||
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Collector
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Darkseid_of_town private msg quote post Address this user | |
| A crash would suggest people panic selling books at lesser prices then they paid. I somehow dont see someone who could spend 50k for a spiderman 1 selling it for 20 cause ..... and thats what a crash would take...isnt happening for most of the more well established keys. Perhaps moderns or some of the more spec stuff but...yeah, no. |
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Beaten by boat oars
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Studley_Dudley private msg quote post Address this user | |
| I can always hope, bro! | ||
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Masculinity takes a holiday.
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EbayMafia private msg quote post Address this user | |
Quote:Originally Posted by Darkseid_of_town I think a crash in Bitcoin would be the most likely catalyst to lead to this scenario. Aggressive investors have made a ton of money on crypto but I've also heard that much of the investing is highly leveraged. I suspect many of those same investors have spread a bunch of winnings into collectibles. |
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Collector
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Darkseid_of_town private msg quote post Address this user | |
| Just my two cents but somehow I think the price on that spidey 1 is likely far more stable than a Bitcoin or two.... | ||
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Davethebrave private msg quote post Address this user | |
Quote:Originally Posted by CatCovers Physical item vs non physical. I think that point (which is crucial) is being missed. You don’t purchase the physical properties of a comic but rather what it represents. Silver or platinum etc is the purchase of a physical item with inherent value. Gold represents a blend of the two concepts and is in a blurred space. But most physical commodities are just that - commodities. The same reason real estate is not a relevant analogy. To try and tie physical analogies to my assessment would be to equate a facsimile copy to the real thing as the physical properties are identical. If you have a physically identical piece of real estate (same location, size and other physical attributes) or commodity (silver, platinum etc) then they would be priced the same. The liquidity argument is not really applicable to explain the bulk of the gap in the value comparison either because we have direct comparisons in the art world. Plenty of liquidity in the tens of thousands or hundreds of thousands price range. Sure there is a liquidity impact but that is likely to sway things only slightly if we are trying to get to fair value. The real reason for the big value gap is that this happens all the time - human nature or lack of rationality even applied in a somewhat irrational space. Especially when no one is doing the correct math like I am doing (and my examples are just to sketch out the basics, there are of course nuances). Of course there will be naysayers that argue my logic is flawed for x, y and z reasons. Same when I pointed out the risk in the housing exposed US banks pre financial crisis. Same as when many people certainly pointed to how prices and speculation in the 90s comic market made no sense, etc etc. In the midst of it all there will be plenty of reasons for not recognizing or correctly interpreting the evidence. All I am doing is pointing out some facts and also sketching out some conclusions as I see them. Maybe I am wrong. The counters to my logic so far are not convincing to me. But I welcome them anyways as constructive criticism, even if based on flawed logic, doesn’t hurt. The simple fact is you can buy up all copies and get yourself down to a single copy of AC1 based on today’s market prices for much, much less than IH181. Interpret that however you wish, but do so at your own risk. To me narrowing down to a “single survivor” of Action Comics 1 vs IH181 should represent a massive premium for AC1 due to its historic and cultural significance. The contrary situation makes no sense and that is where we are in today’s market. |
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Davethebrave private msg quote post Address this user | |
Quote:Originally Posted by Darkseid_of_town But who would have thought all those people in 2008/2009 buying multiple properties all of a sudden had to dump them when things turned down ;-) right? Extrapolating one’s individual view of what is reasonable to others is folly. Which is also why I have no strong timing view on when the market will correct to a more reasonable valuation (relatively speaking). :-) |
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Towmater private msg quote post Address this user | |
Quote:Originally Posted by Davethebrave I think Gordon Gekko summed this up perfectly when he was talking to Bud about a painting in his office and how money is transferred based upon perception. He said, "The illusion has become real. The more real it becomes the more desperate they want it". That pretty much sums up the current comic book market to me. |
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Masculinity takes a holiday.
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EbayMafia private msg quote post Address this user | |
Quote:Originally Posted by Davethebrave @Davethebrave I'm comfortable looking at comic books as a "poor mans" substitute for real estate. I basically try to avoid the neighborhoods that are over-priced and look at which neighborhoods people will want to own in the future. But my goal is not to win an argument. If you have a more useful technique for prognosticating, I would like to understand it better. Best I can tell you are looking at a market cap approach. Recent sales times number of books on CGC census gives you a very rough value that is not a true market cap but is at least useful for comparison purposes. This comparison allows you to recognize and potentially quantify irrational behavior in the market, correct? I'm having a hard time getting comfortable with it so I have a couple of honest questions I'd like to hear your feedback on: 1) Are there potential weaknesses in the comparison that you wrestle with? 2) Is it possible that the market is correct and the future value of Wolverine is 3x of Superman? I'm wondering when would be the last time that Action Comics 1 had a higher market cap than Hulk 181. I'm thinking we might have to go back a decade or more. 3) Can you really get a FMV on Action #1 based on last sale? I would think the owners of Action 1 are much stickier than the average owner of a Hulk 181. Very few owners of Action 1 have multiple copies. Sometimes when a copy of Action 1 sells it means someone either died or didn't pay their taxes for a few years. 4) Based on the Market Cap analogy, shouldn't pressing and additions to the census have a negative impact on individual book value? |
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| I remember standing in a comic book store in the mid eighties with the owner and several of the guys who tended to buy the higher end books as they would come through. Captain America 1 had finally surpassed the 50k mark in a sale....silver books were climbing fast as well.....higher grade silver dc comics were starting to see prices that were much higher. You could still buy an amazing spiderman 1 for less than 5 hundred, an x men 1, avengers 1, and TOS were within reach for under 5 hundred easily . A pristine Brave and Bold 28 was a 375 dollar purchase....noone really worried the sky was falling or there was some mass correction coming simply because the books were finally selling at a mark more in line with their worth Here we are 35-40 years later, no huge correction has ever really happened in the silver age market. Prices have risen, in line with demand for years...there are times that some of the keys remain static a few years, or may even slide back a year or two in slight decline before again moving forward, but nothing in the way of any sort of major price slump has happened...despite wars, famines, floods, Katrina, WTC, pandemic... I will take my bet on the way things have always worked for comics...I do not see anything altering the simple fact that Amazing spiderman, Hulk, Iron man and the Avengers most key issues from the silver age arent going to be sold for less than the price of a hot dog anytime soon. |
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 Pictures? We don't need no stinking pictures.
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| I keep wanting to chime in, but...I have no idea what 2022 holds for the comic industry. But I do think that within the next 5-10 years we will see more and more digital ONLY released comics, straying from print/floppies of days past. Once things get the digital groove-on, we will see the ONLY print releases being those that combine it all in a trade/hardcover format. So the next step in comic evolution will be the much sought after trade/hardcover editions that put it all in print form from the initial digital format. So basically, if a digital comic fails to impress it will never see print form in trade/hardcover form, so...ONLY the best will evolve to print form IMO. Ha, so the first appearance of a major character (or other key) in digital first format can NEVER be worth anything until it is later printed in the first PRINT appearance, which would be a trade or hardcover edition. | ||
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Towmater private msg quote post Address this user | |
| So, if the next phase of the MCU stinks does it kill the Marvel comic market? I ask as DC books haven't seen the increases that Marvel has seen. DC's films overall are horrible and I think it effected the comic side. | ||
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Masculinity takes a holiday.
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EbayMafia private msg quote post Address this user | |
Quote:Originally Posted by Towmater @Towmater I mentioned in another thread that it feels like people have approached this version of the MCU as if it has real life implications. You joked that people need to get a life. But I think that's just it...I don't think many people plan to get a life beyond the one they have right now. With connectivity and the internet the illusion is more and more becoming reality in the minds of the public. Many among us basically live their lives through internet and streaming these days. |
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EbayMafia private msg quote post Address this user | |
Quote:Originally Posted by brysb The things you say make sense for a likely future scenario. Low Cost Digital first, high cost print is only for those books popular enough to pass the digital filter. |
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 I called CGC about the giveback benefit.
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beastboy1980 private msg quote post Address this user | |
| i think the prices for any graded comic will stay solid across the boards. one sole reason they are all backed up with orders. which to me means there is demand for the graded comic. |
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Towmater private msg quote post Address this user | |
Quote:Originally Posted by EbayMafia Sad. |
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Masculinity takes a holiday.
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EbayMafia private msg quote post Address this user | |
Quote:Originally Posted by beastboy1980 @beastboy1980 Just be cautious about this perspective. The recent surge in submissions could be seen to indicate increased slab interest among those submitting. But I think more likely it indicates that dealers are rushing to supply product as a result of higher prices. |
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 I've spent years perfecting my brand of assholery.
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DrWatson private msg quote post Address this user | |
Quote:Originally Posted by EbayMafia That and everyone submitted what they had at the time in order to avoid the price increase. |
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Davethebrave private msg quote post Address this user | |
Quote:Originally Posted by EbayMafia Hi - so the key things to remember are that my market cap analogy is correct to the extent the input data is correct. There are other adjustments I make, however as we know data is imperfect and also to ensure the logic holds: 1) Adjust for the book value of the book (accounting nerds rejoice - but no this is not a depreciated value but a replacement value). For the books discussed here the impact is negligible and can be ignored. 2) Adjust for the true existing volume. Here the adjustment is imprecise for some books and more precise for others. However, in the comparisons I made like IH181 the actual impact would make IH181 look even more overvalued. This is because of a few reasons that I wont go into to save my thumbs As for when the value flipped for IH181 I suspect it was in the last 10 years. That is not a long period of time given the financial market circumstances and the near term spike in IH181 As for “true” market value, of course some AC1 books are held by folks who may not want to sell at any price. This doesnt change the conclusions of the analysis. The above points address your grading supply comment because I of course make estimates for ungraded - this will only exacerbate the gap I am suggesting. Are there weaknesses to the analysis? Yes, but they are in data quality and not the logic itself. Given the stats around the direction of the impact of the simplifying assumptions, no change in conclusion. As for wolverine’s first intro being a more important issue than Supes. No comment. I am just saying that is what the market implies. If someone firmly believes that then they can feel okay about the relative values. I have a hard time seeing it. I have done this analysis (with adjustments) on about 25 major keys and I also see trends validating the analysis (similar values for similarly popular heroes and villains) and trends establishing what we all intuitively know - that Marvel is hot and DC not. My own view is even factoring in popularity etc the gap is unsustainable and will close. |
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