What do you expect the industry landscape to look like in 2022?15049
 If the viagra is working you should be well over a 9.8.
|
xkonk private msg quote post Address this user | |
Not saying it applies here, but the thread reminded me of a good Simpsons bit. |
||
| Post 26 • IP flag post | ||
 Masculinity takes a holiday.
|
EbayMafia private msg quote post Address this user | |
This add campaign makes me think of our industry for some reason |
||
| Post 27 • IP flag post | ||
 PEDIGREED... Again!
|
martymann private msg quote post Address this user | |
Quote:Originally Posted by theCapraAegagrus I don't plan on going anywhere too soon...God willing!   mm |
||
| Post 28 • IP flag post | ||
 -Our Odin-Rest in Peace |
Jesse_O private msg quote post Address this user | |
Quote:Originally Posted by martymann If Marty is an example of a dirty old fart, I hope that I become a dirty old fart some day. |
||
| Post 29 • IP flag post | ||
|
Masculinity takes a holiday.
|
EbayMafia private msg quote post Address this user | |
Quote:Originally Posted by Davethebrave @Davethebrave I'm with you, but sometimes I wonder if I'm adequately factoring in the demand side. I can go to a convention and regularly find 25 people hoping to buy a New Mutants 98 or ASM 300. |
||
| Post 30 • IP flag post | ||
 Collector
|
Darkseid_of_town private msg quote post Address this user | |
| Sort of hard to get the people who think silver and golden age higher end and key books will suddenly devalue. Those who could afford the prices paid certainly I doubt are people whom a minor downturn would affect..... In essence, so what if Amazing Fantasy 15 begins a slow downturn in its selling price? Sixty years of sales history, through wars, famines and floods, and the original ten cent and twelve cent cover price comics just keep moving upwards. The people paying these higher prices are immune to lower sales prics for a year or so...they will wait it out, as the price again finds its level, and again begins rising even higher. A silver age key might see a year of static growth with minor or no gains, as the market around it adjusts to the newest high, but then as it always has , will continue moving upwards. Worry more for modern books with the same story inside 30 different cover versions. Worry more for books printed with so many copies every speculator has a stack of fifty on their investment shelf. Comparing the current sales market to the drop in the market from the nineties is not valid for multiple reasons, but mostly because this isnt the same thing happening. In the nineties the comic companies saw gold in printing hideous numbers of titles, each with a new first issue...(think x force bagged 1 with one of five different cards, x men 1 with any of five different covers, ) Those are the types of things a bursting bubble will affect today. Coupled with the entry of thousands of card shops trying to pretend they were comic dealers to cash in on all that 90's spec and it did not take long for the market to correct and with it remove the one to a corner fly by night comic peddlers. It was not a crash about record prices for x men 1, or Fantastic four 1...and will never be. Some of the silver books shooting up are of course obviously being driven by speculation...(looking at you Strange Tales 159 or Fantastic four 94) Expect those either to continue their paths if the Cinematic universe finds a use for their character long term, moving forward.....or for them to move to a lower level, but still elevated above their previous selling plane. |
||
| Post 31 • IP flag post | ||
 " . "
|
Davethebrave private msg quote post Address this user | |
| @Darkseid_of_town Absolutely, which is why every bubble is different and certainly the steady, truly scarce (relative to long-term, sustained demand) will not be hurt or at least not badly. In fact I see plenty of books with significant long term upside. Hint, not Marvel CMU related. But there are some aspects that are consistent like extrapolating too much off recent trends, or assuming spec demand will be sustained (or mistaking partly spec demand as being true demand). That is the difference. My modeled value of AF15 suggests it is priced aggressively but not a bubble despite relatively high supply. My same model of IH181 and ASM129 tells a very different story (two examples I use consistently and one of which I even added recently despite feeling this way). |
||
| Post 32 • IP flag post | ||
|
Collector
|
Darkseid_of_town private msg quote post Address this user | |
Quote:Originally Posted by DavethebraveI somewhat disagree with that surmise as well, and evaluating the last 20 years prices can be very telling. Consider books like TOS 39, first appearance of Iron Man.....a character that in most respects could be said to have begun the Marvel cinematic universe, and was definitely part of it until his demise in the last feature. The book climbed to some very high prices during that time.....then leveled off for a bit. It did not suddenly plummet like a stone nor did it make its way into the dollar bins. I saw noone marking the book with fire sale prices. Since the end of the Avengers storyline more than a year ago, with the character supposedly gone now, that book has again begun rising to even more high points and seeing even broader gains. The same can be argued for dozens of cinematic movie titles...Incredible hulk 1 logged a sale in 3.00 over 20 k a week ago....... Avengers 1 has been on a roll the last year as well.....nevermind the hole in the roof from Fantastic Four 1, 48, 49, 50 etc. So I do not agree about the marvel cinematic universe per se....only as the more speculative characters that have become the flash in a fire books of the moment almost daily recently. |
||
| Post 33 • IP flag post | ||
|
Collector
|
Darkseid_of_town private msg quote post Address this user | |
| I think a fair question to ask is ..How many people are seeing "Carl the comic guy" who saw these enormous price jumps, and feeling he had some profound understanding of market dynamics, jumped into the fray selling and cashing out as quickly as he could five or six years ago, and now is bitter they missed the golden apple for staying on board just a few more years? | ||
| Post 34 • IP flag post | ||
 Collector
|
Frontier2Xterra private msg quote post Address this user | |
| Interesting tidbit, was just told by my LCS they are not buying comics from anyone right now because of current market. They don't think it's going to last and don't want to lose money. Just an opinion but found it interesting coming from a shop owner. |
||
| Post 35 • IP flag post | ||
 Collector
|
Sebastsk8 private msg quote post Address this user | |
| I've seen the opposite for LCS actually, a few around here are trying to cash in on the increase and expanding their stores etc. Had one specifically more aggressively buying collections to cash in. | ||
| Post 36 • IP flag post | ||
|
Masculinity takes a holiday.
|
EbayMafia private msg quote post Address this user | |
Quote:Originally Posted by Frontier2Xterra @Frontier2Xterra Mind boggling. The LCS owner is so aghast at current prices that he doesn't even want the option of looking at collections and making offers. That's a serious allergic reaction. |
||
| Post 37 • IP flag post | ||
|
" . "
|
Davethebrave private msg quote post Address this user | |
| @Darkseid_of_town agree to disagree then. I don’t think anything you highlighted suggested there is no mcu bubble because I am not saying a pop will be following a movie character not being highlighted in a future film etc. Rather just being part of the mcu landscape puts it in inflated territory. The real question is whether IH181 is a more “important” book than a book like Batman 1 or AF 15. That is what the market is currently saying… to me that is really disconnected from long term importance of the issues and even character popularity. |
||
| Post 38 • IP flag post | ||
|
-Our Odin- Rest in Peace |
Jesse_O private msg quote post Address this user | |
Quote:Originally Posted by Frontier2Xterra Meanwhile, Chuck from Mile High has been busy buying up collections all across the USA. In the past 2 to 3 months, he went to the east coast buying comics all the way there and all the way back. Before that, he did a major buying trip to Texas that many heard about. And this month, he went on a buying spree on the west coast, here is a facebook post from him about it.   Plus, I know from the MCS newsletters that Buddy and staff have been buying up collections as fast as they can. I think this lcs is looking at this all wrong. But whatever, I hope he makes enough to keep the lights on and the customers happy. We really don't need any more stores closing. |
||
| Post 39 • IP flag post | ||
|
" . "
|
Davethebrave private msg quote post Address this user | |
@Darkseid_of_town Quote:Originally Posted by Darkseid_of_town Agree - fomo, schadenfreude (well hoping) etc may apply. That said, it will depend if they bought the part of the market that ran up or not. “Knowing” a priori what will be hot or not $-wise is impossible. Everything is a risk and Carl may have been right but how much better would it have been to buy 1,000 bitcoin for $100 instead? Hindsight provides infinite paths to imaginary wealth ;-) |
||
| Post 40 • IP flag post | ||
 I'm waiting.... (tapping fingers).Splotches is gettin old! |
Nuffsaid111 private msg quote post Address this user | |
Quote:Originally Posted by Jesse_O Man o man... Isengaard and Barad-dur And I worry about stacking 2 boxes on top of each other; let alone 6 boxes |
||
| Post 41 • IP flag post | ||
|
Collector
|
Darkseid_of_town private msg quote post Address this user | |
Quote:Originally Posted by DavethebraveAgree to disagree then...everything I highlighted suggested there is zero MCU bubble. ....a year after the last movie arc and the titles used are moving UP with no supporting movie to further their ends. The assumption being made, is that something in the MCU is automatically in inflated territory which is not a well placed guess. What the last 20 years have shown is that sure, initially exposing a character in those films does eleveate it and give it more widespread following, but....and rather critically once the music is over and the lights go up, many of these characters are holding their long term fans, sans movies and purusing the comics they arose from. You can verify this over and over with the avengers, hulk, iron man, etc. The market is saying anything but that IH 181 is more important than batman 1....thats just how you are reading it. What the market says to me is...all these concepts and ideas were underappreciated and undervalued vastly, and all are now seeing their minute in the spotlight...honestly hulk 181 compared to other possible comic investments has done very average....over the past year. Batman 1 and AF15 has also seen huge jumps in price....this is about undervalued properties finally getting a day in court vs overhyped concepts that will drop like stones |
||
| Post 42 • IP flag post | ||
|
Masculinity takes a holiday.
|
EbayMafia private msg quote post Address this user | |
Quote:Originally Posted by Davethebrave DC collectors concur! It seems that every time I sell off an easy to find Marvel book that I liked I'm able to turn around and use the money to buy an uncommon DC book that I never thought I would own. I will take "never thought I would own" over "liked" any day. These three books combined cost just a little more than the X-men 49 and X-men 109 that I sold recently:    |
||
| Post 43 • IP flag post | ||
|
" . "
|
Davethebrave private msg quote post Address this user | |
@Darkseid_of_town Quote:Originally Posted by Darkseid_of_town Batman 1 is definitely being valued well below Hulk 181. How so? Well, if I wanted to buy up every grade copy of Hulk 181 at current market prices in one go it would cost me more than $100M. batman 1 would be less than a third of that cost. If someone decided they wanted to “convert” the books into a one of a kind, those are the costs. Of course, it is both theoretical and not completely accurate as not everyone will sell at market, nor could someone do this fast and quiet enough for no one to notice. Also, it doesnt take into account ungraded copies. With ungraded copies taken into account, IH181 is probably valued (conservatively) at between 10-15x Batman 1. What is certain is that it is a big multiple in value of what value Batman 1 is at. Realize this sounds hokey to anyone not in a hedge fund or private equity but that is the reality. There are some additional nuances but the current market is favoring these high supply, high hype, MCU related books over far, far more significant titles that are far more scarce. |
||
| Post 44 • IP flag post | ||
|
Masculinity takes a holiday.
|
EbayMafia private msg quote post Address this user | |
Quote:Originally Posted by Davethebrave @Davethebrave I'm having trouble with this line of thinking. If this were real estate I think we would just say that one market is more exclusive than the other with a smaller number of qualified buyers, regardless of the lack of inventory. I don't think you would conclude the larger, more available lower priced neighborhood is actually being valued higher than the more limited ocean-front property market. certainly you might conclude that Phoenix is worth more than Newport Beach, Ca...but no one would take that to mean that Newport Beach is undervalued relative to Phoenix or that Phoenix is over-valued relative to Newport Beach. |
||
| Post 45 • IP flag post | ||
|
Collector
|
Darkseid_of_town private msg quote post Address this user | |
| definitely is hokey...huge age difference and hence damage and wear factors involved...huge supply differences....not even a very good comparison If there were as many issues of Batman 1 as there are hulk 181 the comparison would be through the roof in favor of the batman book. Just a very odd way to even attempt to make that point.... There are 274 known copies of batman 1 in the CGC census alone, nevermind ungraded copies or those done by other companies... You sure you are buying them all for under a 100 mill let alone a third of that? just the 18 copies at 7.0 will cost you well over 6 million by themselves. One 9.4 alone will cost you 2.2 mill...and that isnt even factoring in the pedigree copies that seldom sell but would cost multiples of that price to even consider? So explain for me please how Hulk 181 would cost more than Batman 1...... Any sort of figures without allowing for pedigrees even, would cost you quite a bit more than you are suggesting here for sure |
||
| Post 46 • IP flag post | ||
|
" . "
|
Davethebrave private msg quote post Address this user | |
Quote:Originally Posted by EbayMafia Not really - the analogy is a company. Real estate is not a good analogy because you are paying for things inherent in the good itself - physical properties directly. A company or purchasing shares of a company is the correct analogy. No one is paying $millions for some old worn paper when they buy a comic book. They are buying a piece of the story and the history of the issue itself. Just like you arent buying a share certificate in Apple or MSFT but rather a share of the company’s future earnings represented in its current value. Looking at individual copies and their prices to determine the value of one comic book issue vs another makes no real sense because it ignore the reality of supply. Another way to understand it is if we said all of a sudden there was only one Action Comics 1 left instead of let’s say 100. The value of the book, regardless of grade, will likely equal or exceed the value of ALL current books combined. The grade or conditions of these books do not matter. The value is not in the actual physical items but what they represent. Real estate is therefore not a good example but rather the exact opposite as the representation means little vs the desire for the ownership of the physical property itself. Of course there are nuances around all of this but this is the basics. |
||
| Post 47 • IP flag post | ||
|
" . "
|
Davethebrave private msg quote post Address this user | |
| One other thing, company shares are usually “mostly” fungible, with some exceptions. But the basic concept holds. Berkshire may cost hundreds of thousands per share but it is the less valuable company between it and Apple. Again, easiest way to think about is buying out the issue, and making it “one copy left” as someone who buys every copy could very well decide to do as awful as that would be. The current market prices can let someone do that with Batman 1 at a far, far cheaper cost than IH181. Technically when I compare I get rid of the “book” cost of a comic btw at today’s prices ($4 a copy for example) but for my examples above it doesnt change the math much. |
||
| Post 48 • IP flag post | ||
 Collector
|
CatCovers private msg quote post Address this user | |
Quote:Originally Posted by Davethebrave I suspect it would cost more to buy all the silver in the world than it would to buy all the platinum in the world. That doesn't mean silver is worth more than platinum. |
||
| Post 49 • IP flag post | ||
|
Masculinity takes a holiday.
|
EbayMafia private msg quote post Address this user | |
Quote:Originally Posted by Davethebrave I think that's Doubtful. The market cap analogy is flawed in my opinion. I argue that the better comparison would be real estate. What if there were only one Beachfront mansion left in the country. Would it rise significantly in value and keep rising as global wealth increases? Absolutely. Would it suddenly be worth as much as all Oceanfront property in the country was previously worth? Doubtful. Even the very wealthy would struggle to compete with each other at that price. DC is the state. Action Comics is the city. Action Comics #1 is the neighborhood and the grade is the specific property. The value of that specific home will go up and down as the State, City or Neighborhood become more or less desirable in the eyes of the general public. |
||
| Post 50 • IP flag post | ||
|
Masculinity takes a holiday.
|
EbayMafia private msg quote post Address this user | |
| @Davethebrave One other thing I think the Market Cap analogy misses is the value of liquidity. I know you've seen thinly-traded companies that get stuck in a value trap due to a lack of liquidity in their stock. The 100 copies of Batman #1 can't be cut up in order to match the liquidity of a Hulk 181. | ||
| Post 51 • IP flag post | ||
|
Masculinity takes a holiday.
|
EbayMafia private msg quote post Address this user | |
Quote:Originally Posted by Jesse_O I remember the first time I found a 50% off promo code from Mile High. Comic buying madness what about to ensue! 60 minutes later I just felt tricked and stupid...wanted to send an email requesting my hour of life back. |
||
| Post 52 • IP flag post | ||
|
Collector
|
Darkseid_of_town private msg quote post Address this user | |
Quote:Originally Posted by EbayMafiaThis wins the internet for today !!! |
||
| Post 53 • IP flag post | ||
|
Collector
|
CatCovers private msg quote post Address this user | |
Quote:Originally Posted by EbayMafia Occasionally, they'll offer 60% off, which actually brings their prices down to the "Huh, that's kinda high" level. |
||
| Post 54 • IP flag post | ||
|
Masculinity takes a holiday.
|
EbayMafia private msg quote post Address this user | |
Quote:Originally Posted by CatCovers lol, 60% just means that it takes longer to do the math...which makes you feel even more stupid by time you finally surrender. |
||
| Post 55 • IP flag post | ||
This topic is archived. Start new topic?