What do you expect the industry landscape to look like in 2022?15049
 Masculinity takes a holiday.
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EbayMafia private msg quote post Address this user | |
| What's your best guess? Bubble burst? Flood of inventory from all this slabbing? MCU keeps the flames burning hot? Inflation and currency devaluing keeps prices up? DCU picks up steam? New tax laws make it harder than ever to buy comics online? Anyone thought out the twists and turns of going into 2022? | ||
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 Captain Corrector
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CaptainCanuck private msg quote post Address this user | |
| . I would say the market will stay hot as long as the MCU (and possibly DCU) does. |
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 We should have the forum rate our packages.
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HeinzDad private msg quote post Address this user | |
| Willy Wonka’s factory. | ||
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 You can't get good wood on the ball every time.
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HotKeyComics private msg quote post Address this user | |
| The only short term crash/correction I see is in the variants and exclusives market. I think over 90% of those will see a 50%+ price drop by the end of next year. Keys will still be keys but some of the "newer" keys might see a small drop, like 2nd appearances and "cover keys" like ASM 316. | ||
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Masculinity takes a holiday.
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EbayMafia private msg quote post Address this user | |
| I'm thinking that this massive run-up in price may have created new second tier "Blue Chips" that will remain Blue Chip permanently. Two that come to mind are Hulk 180 and X-men 94. Probably Captain America 117 as well. Prices may drop some, but I think there is a new level of interest and demand that will always remain elevated. This will keep prices from ever getting anywhere close to 2020 levels again, in my opinion. | ||
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 I showed my wife and she was so happy for me she started to cry.
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Batman66 private msg quote post Address this user | |
| I'm in it for the long haul plus I'm buying what I like. So if there is a price correction and the bubble pops or if the prices still keeps going nuts, I'm good either way. Personally, I think some books will keep going up and books that are over inflated will come down. | ||
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 Leftover Sundae Gnus
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CatmanAmerica private msg quote post Address this user | |
| Although it may seem a little self-serving since my collecting is very focused in this direction, I see the GA market remaining stable across the board and growing (especially in respect to higher end pedigreed books). I'm "iffier" on more speculative areas of collecting like the late SA to Modern market because of the encapsulation numbers and top-heavy side of the market grade-wise. Short term I don't see the bottom falling out of any market as there's still growth potential and media interest with hero properties (in spite of market saturation). Generally speaking, as long as movies and TV series maintain solid audience interest ...Disney having made some wise business decisions with their Marvel properties... the markets should continue to blossom. That's my two bits (bumped up from two cents due to market inflation).   . |
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 Collector
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Darkseid_of_town private msg quote post Address this user | |
Quote:Originally Posted by CatmanAmericaPerfect summary, I see things the same. I do feel some of the late silver and bronze more key books will continue to sizzle but if there is a "bubble" to concern yourself with, it will almost certainly be within the variants, modern and early eighties forward materials. Watch out for key x men character intros across the board, and fantastic four books in 12 cent covers! |
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Masculinity takes a holiday.
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EbayMafia private msg quote post Address this user | |
| One thing I keep in mind with Moderns that are in plentiful supply: If 9.8's reach a high enough value, there are thousands of books that couldn't pass 9.8 "grade screen" waiting to come crawling out of the woodworks for slabbing. If there are even 500 9.8's on a census, just imagine how many 9.6's and 9.4's are out there that haven't been slabbed yet. In short, I'm in agreement...trust the stuff that's hard to come by, be wary of the stuff that's easy to find. |
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Davethebrave private msg quote post Address this user | |
| Books with tens of thousands of total slabbed supply (implying a multiple of total supply) and yet priced in the thousands or tens of thousands, are subject to musical chairs risk. When the music stops, watch for a decent correction. The correction could be “only” 50% because their long term demand is okay. Think IH181, ASM129 and a few FF titles as key examples, no pun intended. GA DC keys have no musical chair risk and will likely benefit from general inflation hedge. But is above a 2022 call? Who knows… 2022 or second half 2021 or 2023? No one tells you in advance when the music will stop. |
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 PLOD
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theCapraAegagrus private msg quote post Address this user | |
| There won't be a "crash", but there will be a downturn. The MCU was always gonna go this way after the Infinity Saga ended. While the casuals may keep some of the hype-train going, the quality of product from Marvel Studios is clearly lacking. Plus, dusty old farts leaving the hobby soon, their nostalgia will be going with them. |
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 Collector
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Sebastsk8 private msg quote post Address this user | |
| I see some minor devaluation once some movies start rolling out and con season is in full swing which allows for more supply to flow into the market. MCU will keep running strong, and keep pushing values of books up with characters being portrayed in new movies. Hot items like carnage and venom books right now will drop a little after the movie release but still remain higher than before, and depending how the movie goes could rise even higher if it's a hit and they announce a 3rd movie One thing I also see is Netflix and Hulu and even HBOMax grasping whatever comic titles they can to turn into movies and series, but I think that will hit the smaller publishers like Boom! maybe even more than marvel or DC. They aren't already spoken for and obviously have less clout and therefore will be easier and cheaper to work a deal with. I can see SIKTC, We only find them when they're dead, BRZRKR and possibly some others getting series or streamer original movies - which when announced would just blow up those titles. |
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Davethebrave private msg quote post Address this user | |
| The dusty old farts is a non factor. Look at first edition historic books. Or look at rare collector cars (old buggatis from 20s, 30s). Or look at artwork in outdated styles going back centuries or more. Painting has been an outdated format for a long, long time. Consider also the current and future where media streaming abounds with broader and broader audiences where the missing piece is content. The risk of rehashing old characters with an established base is lower risk. The difference is the ebb and flow of the relative popularity and how the market is digesting that info. Marvel books are due to correct or crash because of cyclical, not secular, risks. Simply said, overhyped and not enough understanding of how the supply piece will play a longer term role. But again the idea that collectors will wither away and that will impact the market is extremely unlikely based on historic precedent. |
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Davethebrave private msg quote post Address this user | |
| Oh - and if we see some situation where golden age or truly scarce silver age key books drop back to thousands or tens of thousands for major keys, I will gladly buy up the entire market. I suspect that ship has sailed - permanently | ||
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Davethebrave private msg quote post Address this user | |
| @Sebastsk8 I mean zero offense when I say this but this is the approach that reflects a bubble. This is also where I see problematic logic being applied (though it is “working” in today’s market). Brzrkr and titles like that should not skyrocket regardless of movies or shows. Why? Because a) already anticipated and b) massive supply. Full disclosure, I have probably 30 copies of brzkr 1 myself and think they should be worth below cover price. Even with a massive global market, the overall long-term value of those books should be minimal when supply is so high. The condition of the books will also be exceptionally high because of expectations. I also own crypto and have held it for years and was telling people I thought it was in a bubble a few months back… which was pretty obvious. I can hold things I view as a bubble because I am diversified enough to use it as a near-term “irrationality” hedge. But I assume those bubble assets could deflate at any moment without warning. You can keep following the hype train etc but I hope while understanding it could (and should) unravel - and when it does unravel will likely happen very quickly. |
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 Collector
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vision6797 private msg quote post Address this user | |
| I also see the bubble bursting , probably late 2022. The quality of a lot of the books have really been starting the downward trend. the heavy speculation is also a factor, people in the hobby merely to speculate on books, like in the stock market. I saw these same signs with the last bubble burst, but it is taking longer due to the movies the last several years. i started to buy books from the silver and bronze age because of the stories and the Art. It seems like now... the stories seem to have to be bigger and bigger . I miss the stories told in only one to three issues, such as the original series of the Avengers, FF and the Xmen. Now, its multiple issues and titles crossovers. When it does burst it will probably be worst the the 90s leaving only the die hard collectors and fans left to pick up the pieces. | ||
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 Not trying to be an ass since February 12, 2020.
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HulkSmash private msg quote post Address this user | |
Quote:Originally Posted by Davethebrave Calling any art form outdated is ignorant; by that line of thinking our entire hobby and card collections are null and void. I’ll eat my UF4 if you can show me an image created on a tablet that has the same scope of detail as a physical painting that also creates physical connections and textures with every brush stroke. |
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 Secret Moderator
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MatterEaterLad private msg quote post Address this user | |
| I thought for sure things would flatline this fall as all these books flood the marketplace, but with how far behind grading companies are (and pressers) I don't think we'll fall off a cliff or anything, just a return to normal, reasonable increase in values, with spikes for books bumped by the MCU. My advice: find something you're really into, that's not driven by profit. Buy those books, read them, and enjoy them, so you don't forget these stories were written and drawn for entertainment. Enjoy the nostalgia without the FOMO. For me, that's SA Legion books. |
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 Collector
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BrianGreensnips private msg quote post Address this user | |
| I feel with the comic book conventions and shows back in full swing, this should be enough to keep collector's wanting more. I was at a show yesterday and it was booming. I think the rest of 2021 will be strong sales and probably 2022 too with movies ramping back up. | ||
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 I'm waiting.... (tapping fingers).Splotches is gettin old! |
Nuffsaid111 private msg quote post Address this user | |
| A great run for Superheroes in the last 15 years or so. I do worry though over the long long term about superheroes in particular. Look at Westerns - starting with John Wayne's Stagecoach (maybe even earlier than that) through the late 60's. That's like close to 30 years of incredible popularity in movies and tv. I hope I'm wrong, but all popular topics come to an end eventually. I just hope I'm dead and buried when that comes to pass. If and when it does occur, could be a real real long time from now; but maybe not. I dunno. |
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Davethebrave private msg quote post Address this user | |
| @HulkSmash I assume you are agreeing with me. Otherwise you are misreading my post. Medieval art as a style is outdated. It is still worth millions for an early Christian piece. That is my point - it may be dated by contemporary perspectives but the value as a piece of history remains intact and is in fact often heightened. Early comic art is - in my eyes - often a lot more interesting than modern. But it is often from a dated approach partly based on which artists focused on comics as a medium. Comics as an art could even become outdated but this will not negatively impact their value. I could go on but I think my point was and is clear and was clearly not arguing comics are out dated. |
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PLOD
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theCapraAegagrus private msg quote post Address this user | |
Quote:Originally Posted by Davethebrave Lmfao. Okay. |
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 past performance is no guarantee of future actions.
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KatKomics private msg quote post Address this user | |
| I'm thinking more of a water colour than oil, certainly not abstract - heaven help me if it's pointillism (can't stand it!!!) | ||
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Collector
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Sebastsk8 private msg quote post Address this user | |
| @Davethebrave There is huge interest in comic based movies and that's only growing, and with Disney moving all mcu related shows and movies to their platform, that means Netflix and Hulu will target more indy titles. Some of those titles have limited print runs nowhere near marvel books. As long as interest in this stuff grows or stays constant, I see continued investment in making more movies which then boosts those books its related to. As far as books with higher print runs like brzrkr - Spawn 1 had a run of what? 1.7 million or something outrageous? And those books still held value at much higher than cover price. I'm not expecting random indy books to be worth gsx1 values, but #1s and keys could well be worth hundreds(look at siktc #1 and some of the other first printings already worth that much or more). |
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Davethebrave private msg quote post Address this user | |
| See, I don’t connect the same dots of a movie driving long-term book value when the supply is so high. Short-term speculation, sure and that has been clear. Long term the supply will matter because the relative popularity of characters has generally been enduring. Maybe I am wrong and my ASM129 will be worth more in a few years - but I doubt it. In any event, the posts will remain up and in 5-10 years we will see. My art world and collector car analogies are just analogies since I collect across many areas. I happen to have some of the more sought after modern watches out there and those have gone up 2-3x over the past couple years. No movies either, at least no relevant movies in the past 40 years. Cars - same thing. Some increases seem to be speculative hype and others look more sustainable. I couldn’t care less if someone views it differently - just putting it out there why those other views are wrong ;-) |
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 If the viagra is working you should be well over a 9.8.
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xkonk private msg quote post Address this user | |
Not saying it applies here, but the thread reminded me of a good Simpsons bit. |
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Masculinity takes a holiday.
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EbayMafia private msg quote post Address this user | |
This add campaign makes me think of our industry for some reason |
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 PEDIGREED... Again!
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martymann private msg quote post Address this user | |
Quote:Originally Posted by theCapraAegagrus I don't plan on going anywhere too soon...God willing!   mm |
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 -Our Odin-Rest in Peace |
Jesse_O private msg quote post Address this user | |
Quote:Originally Posted by martymann If Marty is an example of a dirty old fart, I hope that I become a dirty old fart some day. |
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Masculinity takes a holiday.
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EbayMafia private msg quote post Address this user | |
Quote:Originally Posted by Davethebrave @Davethebrave I'm with you, but sometimes I wonder if I'm adequately factoring in the demand side. I can go to a convention and regularly find 25 people hoping to buy a New Mutants 98 or ASM 300. |
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