Ask questions here without starting a whole new thread14403
 Suck it up, buttercup!!
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KatKomics private msg quote post Address this user | |
Quote:Originally Posted by HulkSmashlol...stopped even looking at gocollect since the "upgrade" |
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| Post 951 • IP flag post | ||
 If I could, I would. I swear.
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DrWatson private msg quote post Address this user | |
| It's back up for me. | ||
| Post 952 • IP flag post | ||
 Collector*
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Towmater private msg quote post Address this user | |
| @Davethebrave My ideas in the coming 18 or so months… 1) I agree with the big banks. A correction is coming. It will start in the late spring to summer. I just believe it will be worse than the 10 to 15% number being tossed about in the press. 2) Consumer demand will normalize over the next 6 months. After that, who knows but I don’t see a return to the roaring 20’s style we have been living in again. 3) The Fed is going to start turning the tap off and will continue the turn throughout the next 18-24 months. The “free” money that primed the pump is over. 4) The shift in the “message” we are all seeing, about a certain something we can’t talk about, is an attempt to get people back to work and right the ship. Too bad it has come to late. 5) We are at peak pricing or on the downside on collectibles. The next year will be interesting. If I’m right then the pain is at the doorstep. It isn’t going to be a fun 24 to 48 month period. I lived through this before in the late 1970’s. I’m wrong then everyone can make fun of me and I’ll still have gotten my financial house in order so the next generation of my family doesn’t have to do it when I pass. |
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| Post 953 • IP flag post | ||
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Davethebrave private msg quote post Address this user | |
Quote:Originally Posted by Towmater I don’t disagree with much of what you’re saying. I’ve had conversations with several large ($10bn+) investors who are actively looking to de-risk. Now, de-risking is a funny term. In their case it means reducing correlation with things like the S&P500. This is based off portfolio theory dating back decades. The funny thing is it tends to include looking at alt-assets like collectibles… funny, right? In that case the focus is less on absolute notions of “expensive or cheap” but instead relative price movements over time and their correlations to stocks and bonds. My message back was we need to be concerned with the convergence on 1.0. What that means is a move towards correlation in specific points of time even when historic correlation isn’t apparent. I raised similar concerns pre-2008/09 financial crisis, mind you about a year or two “too soon”. In short, I tend to agree with your basic view. However - how things actually play out in a heavily politicized environment (from BOTH sides) is not mathematically precise or predictable. Nearly as dangerous as taking too many risks (too much debt, too much speculation) is not taking enough “risk” if we are stuck in a cash devaluation cycle. For example, if everyone is foolish or speculates too aggressively, government policy will always be to try and appease and bailout. It won’t be described this way but that will be the end result. In a case like that cash (and prudence) gets hammered. That cycle can be persistent or at least not be meaningfully unwound/reversed. I see virtually no asset class that has not undergone major repricing (higher). I see virtually no asset that wouldn’t get massively hammered by a big increase in interest rates. So I see politics being a risk to rational prudence.. Again, I don’t disagree with a lot of your views… I just won’t put all my eggs in one basket. Rather my moves have been to keep some baskets of assets but be selective for long-term value when the more pure “speculative” component goes away, leaving instead just “excess” cash that was already injected into the system. |
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| Post 954 • IP flag post | ||
 Collector
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Huntergreene2 private msg quote post Address this user | |
Quote:Originally Posted by KatKomics At 50 I'm in super villain shape. Think Blob, Mojo, Doc Oc, The Clown (Violator). |
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| Post 955 • IP flag post | ||
 Masculinity takes a holiday.
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EbayMafia private msg quote post Address this user | |
Quote:Originally Posted by Davethebrave Around 2009-2010 my brother was hired by a bank to be part of a massive home foreclosure program. The Federal government stepped in and for about 8 months he was paid to stay home and do nothing. Had to wake up early once a week to contact the office. The Feds didn't want the homes foreclosed...but they didn't want the new hires laid off either. Yes, politics is a risk to rational prudence on the national level. People aren't going to run short on dollars in 2022. An elected government with legislative control isn't going to stop making the thing that they are best at making. That's more likely to occur in a split government. I see 2022 as the year of rising interest rates. I see 2023 as the year where home prices, and the economy as a whole, feel the impact of that. |
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| Post 956 • IP flag post | ||
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Collector*
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Towmater private msg quote post Address this user | |
| @EbayMafia @Davethebrave This is what I see happening in the housing market in the next 12 to 18 months... The housing market, starting with higher priced properties, has already started to slow. That's due to the rats fleeing the ship. Lots of inventory heading to or on the market trying to get out while the getting is good. They should have sold their properties last quarter though. By late summer, things get really interesting as the foreclosures from all the people that didn't pay their mortgages during the last 20+- months start happening. Tie that in with the Fed raising interest rates and the house of cards starts to fall. The second wave of foreclosures which will occur at late fall/next winter will accelerate the pain. At that point, the rails which have been greased by the world's financial policies and spending over the last 20+ months leads us on a runaway train. Where it stops? I haven't a clue but it isn't going to be good. |
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| Post 957 • IP flag post | ||
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Davethebrave private msg quote post Address this user | |
| @EbayMafia @Towmater We will see how things play out. I think there is a hierarchy of inflated values. There likely are areas I am less familiar with but here is my personal view for what I am familiar with: 1.(tied for highest): A) Large electric car / battery / insert meme company with Tweet happy CEO B) Canadian Real Estate C) Crypto >>> unfortunately direct or indirectly I have massive exposure to these three categories in total… but I think they will fall dramatically. The “when” is incredibly hard to call. 2.) Equity markets generally (but let’s just say US equities for simplicity) 3.) Collectibles - or pockets therein as high risk. The more speculative pockets, those with most questionable scarcity, are the highest risk of collapse 4.) Some - selected - other real estate markets. This is not broad based in the US… at least not in the way pre 2008/09 crisis. Similar to 3, it will be in pockets So, it leaves very few untouched areas. The flip-side risk is that bailouts continue - effectively supporting most of the above to the detriment of holding cash. I tend to assume a bit of a perpetual “Fed put” is across the markets. So any sharp unwind or collapse is a buying opportunity followed by another hyper inflation cycle. Speculation may be sidelined however if the collapse happens to be painful enough… real estate speculation in the US is far below Canada because one market was pounded and the other… untouched with no lessons learned. This is why I am happy to hold rarer items of any collectible category as by mathematical default, equivalent recent growth is not as reliant on demand. The political solution to crashes is liquidity and this makes the risk of holding cash -very- high… and is why I am happy to retain risk so long as I also retain the ability to take advantage of any massive collapse too. |
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| Post 958 • IP flag post | ||
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Masculinity takes a holiday.
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EbayMafia private msg quote post Address this user | |
| @Towmater I don't see the same short-term home default risk that you see. I don't think the mortgage non-payment was anywhere near the rent non-payment. And, as expected, the government stepped in and took care of the rent thing. Homes typically need to be under water value-wise in order to default. That may happen with rising rates but it's not the case right now. Any homes that currently have negative equity are probably fairly undesirable and and the Federal government will put a lot of money towards keeping those areas from deteriorating, in my opinion. | ||
| Post 959 • IP flag post | ||
 Keep your $6.87 bro... not even saving tax with that.
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Cli4dR3D0g private msg quote post Address this user | |
| How are NFTs accounted for this year with the capital gains tax? If I actually sell nothing, is it taxable? Can nothing lose value if I am carrying that inventory over time? And if I sold it at a profit and the buyer paid with crypto, but the crypto price/value falls, is that a gain or a loss? If the value of the dollar decreases due to inflation, should that impact gains and losses? None of these are actual scenarios for me, but I enjoy the conversations here greatly. |
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| Post 960 • IP flag post | ||
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Collector*
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Towmater private msg quote post Address this user | |
| @Davethebrave @EbayMafia I know someone that is at the VP level of a regional bank in our area. She’s had meetings that outline a three level approach to the foreclosures that are coming. The plans were laid out with communications and meetings with governmental personnel. What the size of what is coming and the forecasted excess inventory that will be on the market after it starts is going to take people’s breath away. |
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| Post 961 • IP flag post | ||
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