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THE THREAD THAT KILLED ALL CORONAVIRUS TALK.11811

Collector Darkseid_of_town private msg quote post Address this user
From what I have read the CDC has put forward some rather obvious steps to meet before any district reopens for business. Testing, tracking and the demonstration of a consecutive period of lowered reported cases are among the main ones offered. It is rather obvious most states do not have in place the tracking needed to trace down each infected person or their contacts....aside from the testing fiasco to date. So there is in fact much work that still needs done to meet the guidelines offered by the CDC for anyone to consider opening up and just going at it.
A one size approach is kinda obviously needed cause opening up this state but not this one is sort of the same concept as having a no peeing zone in a swimming pool isn't it?
Shaming is a two way street, by the way and name calling and placing labels on people who dont agree with a given set of views is....hardly attractive or well considered.
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Collector EbaySeller private msg quote post Address this user
Quote:
Originally Posted by Towmater
From what I remember, the objective of the shutdown was to stop the hospitals from being overrun via flatting the curve. For the large majority of the USA that has occurred.

A one size fits all approach can no longer be applied to every state nor should the doomers expect or try to shame the states that want to do things differently than they believe things should be done.


Both of these things have been bothering me more than anything else. The shut-down was to keep the healthcare system from being over-run and cascading into tragedy. Now the opposite has happened in many places and clinics and hospitals are being closed because of under-utilization and the bar has been changed on the reasons for the shut-down.

My parents live in Oregon with 128 projected Covid-19 deaths. There is no rational reason why they should be living under the same circumstances as New York with 24,314 projected fatalities. There never was a rational reason other than that this has become basically a competition amongst state and local officials for bragging rights on who keeps the numbers lowest. And to your point, a CYA culture that immediately embraces each new Protocol and restriction idea that someone comes up with.
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Collector EbaySeller private msg quote post Address this user
Also disturbing, as of yesterday in California only 1 in 8 Unemployment applications has recieved a payment of any kind. Some of these people living month-to-month have been out of work for 5-6 weeks now.
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COLLECTOR Towmater private msg quote post Address this user
@EbaySeller Even the states that have had more cases than others never had their healthcare system overrun to the point there were not enough ventilators. The USN Comfort left NYC a couple of hours ago. It left NYC after treating a total of 182 people. It was in NYC for a month. (I am glad that 620 doctors, nurses and other crew members are returning to the homeport in Norfolk, Virginia). All the field hospitals that were erected have been taken down or will be mothballed soon. Why?

According to AP News...Looking at projections in mid-March that NY state would need to double hospital capacity to 110,000 beds by the end of April, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers were asked to build at least four field hospitals and the Navy to deploy the Navy’s Comfort hospital ship to Manhattan"...

At the height of the outbreak, 18,825 beds, less than 20% of the predicted number, were needed in NY state. Only one of the Army Corps-built temporary facilities opened, at the Jacob K. Javits Convention Center. It will close Friday after treating little more than 1,000 patients, according to AP News.

Treating all states like they have the issues that the northeast faced is asinine. Each state can make their own decisions. They know there abilities to safely reopen, and the time table that should be implemented.

I think it comes down to this...
If you wanna close your beaches then do it. Just don't expect other places to follow along. If you wanna never shut down then do it. Just don't expect other places to follow along.
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Collector EbaySeller private msg quote post Address this user
Quote:
Originally Posted by Towmater
At the height of the outbreak, 18,825 beds, less than 20% of the predicted number, were needed in NY state


As I mentioned yesterday in thread #1, I believe the modelers misunderstood when the virus arrived in communities. For example they were looking at Italy and Spain and assuming all that hospitalization had happened in the first 30-60 days when in fact we will probably learn that it had been more like 90-120 days. So the models saw a hospitalization and death rate that was far higher than reality.
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Collector GanaSoth private msg quote post Address this user
I'm pretty sure this guy knows what he's talking about.


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Collector Darkseid_of_town private msg quote post Address this user
or possibly its just as simple as ...the social distancing and staying at home did what it was supposed to... the steps taken proved their validity ...right up until someone decides they weren't necessary, discards them and opens up pandoras magic death box again for everyone.
I mean honestly folks, it cannot be this hard to understand cause and effect….and that following the proper steps tends to lower the curve, flatten the projection and lower the impact.

incidentally referring to the us Comfort naval hospital ship sent to NY...as a means to treat OUTSIDE cases that were not covid positive so the hospitals could focus on the virus patients..yes it did the job expected and helped those not needing virus treatment. Since it was only there to treat patients that were not virus positive I am unsure why anyone would even make the argument it was under-utilized. it did precisely as assigned and needed while the hospitals were allowed to focus on virus patients.
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Collector Darkseid_of_town private msg quote post Address this user
Quote:
Originally Posted by GanaSoth
I'm pretty sure this guy knows what he's talking about.


except that its been proven beyond any doubt and without any argument that his argument is incorrect, and that is not the case as seen in the paper I posted from the previouos thread on the precise history of how the virus evolved.
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Collector Darkseid_of_town private msg quote post Address this user
https://www.health24.com/Medical/Infectious-diseases/Coronavirus/new-coronavirus-is-not-man-made-new-study-confirms-20200319
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Collector GanaSoth private msg quote post Address this user
@Darkseid_of_town and who and what made these counter arguments? People that have their hands in China's pockets I'm sure.

This man got the Noble Prize in Medicine in 2008 for discovering HIV-1. I'm sure he's far more intelligent then the person or people that are saying he's wrong.

BTW, here's a very informative video about how deep Chinas pockets really are which involve companies here in the US.
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Collector GanaSoth private msg quote post Address this user
I don't wanna bring up politics and get suspended.
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Collector Darkseid_of_town private msg quote post Address this user
Quote:
Originally Posted by Darkseid_of_town
https://www.health24.com/Medical/Infectious-diseases/Coronavirus/new-coronavirus-is-not-man-made-new-study-confirms-20200319
this paper destroys the argument the virus is man made, it was also written by scientists, ones with integrity that I am sure you aren't questioning...are you truly suggesting that anyone that fails to accept the flawed science to argue this is man made are corrupt scientists?
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Collector GanaSoth private msg quote post Address this user
Ok here ya go. Destroy it now. This proves that Health24.com (that printed your paper) has their hands in China's pockets.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Darkseid_of_town
https://www.health24.com/Medical/Infectious-diseases/Coronavirus/new-coronavirus-is-not-man-made-new-study-confirms-20200319


Health24.com

Let's look who they are...






They have their hands in China's pockets. Has their best interest in mind. I rest my case.

No need to come back with a wall of text that you're famous for. Because you will never convince me that it's a natural virus & not made in China (like everything else is these days).
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Collector Darkseid_of_town private msg quote post Address this user
I think you stated it quite well actually..no amount of truth, logic, evidence or fact will change your mind. I accept and understand that in fact...the term for it is called Bigotry...the unshakeable idea that no matter what proof, evidence or higher logic can offer, the view you hold is the only possible correct one. Science accepts new evidence as it is given provided it can be independently verified and reviewed. I will go with that.
You choose to deal in fear, panic and paranoia devoid of the obvious and clearly presented evidence otherwise. That is your right and choice. I accept this...
Your mistake is assuming I am trying to change your mind.
I am in fact offering a counter viewpoint for the many who message me concerned about your comments and ideas and offering encouragement that someone will speak up, someone will deny and attempt to place reason into the discussion as well. I am speaking for the various members of the forum we have lost over the last month due to the insidious accusations and wildly tortured conspiracy theories you continue trying to breathe twisted life into. Believe what you like...I am not here for you honestly.
As for the posting about the paper I placed, you apprently understand little of the peer review or journal process and have managed to kill the messenger for what the message says. In short, the scientists who wrote and published the paper likely paid a high price monetarily to the publisher for their work to appear in its journal. They are not affiliated nor work for that journal, it only serves as a vehicle if you like, to get the word out , regarding their study. Most such arrangements are expensive and do not directly profit said scientists, only the publishing journal itself. Sadly you chose to attack the journal for publishing the work regardless and obviously ignorant of the process.

Finally regarding my infamous wall of text...I dont argue points on the ...I found it on youtube basis. I provide facts, evidence and links. I am sorry that is not comfortable for you in some manner, but it does make for a better presentation of fact versus...oh I found some rambling ecentric overaged french has been from twenty years ago rambling inchorently about some vague belief he has that has been debunked by every scientist that has examined the issue worldwide.
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COLLECTOR Towmater private msg quote post Address this user
@EbaySeller The doomers always conveniently "forget" that in the original models (before they had to be adjusted way, way, way, way, way, way, way down - multiply times) that social distancing and staying at home were built into them. Of course, they were massively off in their predicted outcomes. As I provided in my previous post, the AP wrote at the height of the outbreak, 18,825 beds, less than 20% of the predicted number, were needed in NY state. You know, they place that is and was the epicenter of the pandemic.

One can pretend that the models weren’t wrong. However, they were and everyone knows it now. Refusing to acknowledge that simple fact and to continue to throw "doom and gloom" at the hard data reveals where one is coming from. I believe those types of people were crushed to see the USN Comfort leave the port of NYC.
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Collector EbaySeller private msg quote post Address this user
Yes, the original models with Social Distancing started at approx 2 million fatalities (US) before finally settling down around 75,000. That's why there was so much argument about the need for Ventilators and ICU units. A model that is off by a factor of 25X is about as useful as a contaminated test. But they were using the numbers they saw from other countries in order to model the US. Which is why I say they completely underestimated the length of time the virus had been in those communities. And they completely over-estimated how many people it would put in the hospitals and how quickly.
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Collector DavidM private msg quote post Address this user
To many, in your area of the country it may be better. I hope so, but don’t discount what it’s like where I live. My wife works in a hospital that has a lot of covid-19 patients. She comes home every night exhausted both mentally and physically. There are still over 100 patients on ventilators, and that doesn’t count the ones who are just positive and sick. The hospital is full of them. She can’t take much more of this.

There are many health care workers in her hospital that tested positive, got sick, and are called back into work. They are burned out, and short staffed.

I wish all the people complaining about this could work with her for one day to see what it’s like. You really can’t imagine it.
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Collector EbaySeller private msg quote post Address this user
Quote:
Originally Posted by DavidM
To many, in your area of the country it may be better. I hope so, but don’t discount what it’s like where I live


@DavidM I think you just said the magic words there, "in your area of the country". But it's a really, really big country and we don't all live in the same area.
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COLLECTOR Towmater private msg quote post Address this user
@DavidM I have family members that work in the Covid Units in 3 different states. They all have different tales about their shifts and what they entail. I hope your wife stays healthy.


@EbaySeller I don't remember a lot of coverage in the USA about Swiss scientist who leads their Covid-19 response announcing that young children pose no risk of infection from COVID-19 because they do not have the "receptors" targeted by the virus. He stated that grandparents can safely hug under-10 year olds. It seems that they can't babysit them but they can have short visits with them. The advice only applies to children under the age of 10 who are showing no signs of illness. The story was covered in Europe.

(I am noting that even Swiss scientists have different conclusions on whether children contracted the virus and how they might pass it on).
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Collector DavidM private msg quote post Address this user
@Towmater Thank you and I hope the same for your family members.
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Joined The Club Steverogers11 private msg quote post Address this user
Gana and Dark need there own section. It would b a good read. I’ll start one
Post 46 IP   flag post
Moderator Jesse_O private msg quote post Address this user
Quote:
Originally Posted by Steverogers11
Gana and Dark need there own section. It would b a good read. I’ll start one


That idea got nixed by the mods.
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Joined The Club Steverogers11 private msg quote post Address this user
Lol fair enough
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Rock, Paper, Scissors, Lizard, Spock Tedsaid private msg quote post Address this user
Quote:
Originally Posted by GanaSoth
But that video is pretty damning.

You realize, she's not saying we want to infect more people, right? She's saying there hasn't been enough to ensure herd immunity. It's just a statement of fact, not a goal to achieve.
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Moderator Jesse_O private msg quote post Address this user
Originally posted by @masochism. Please direct all questions to him. I'm just moving the post.




I put together a little collection of statements and Tweets regarding the crisis and the accompanying fact checks. Featuring cover art by myself and some art by John Hageman JR and political cartoonist Ed Hall.

The book is limited to 100 copies and is a great read while in self-quarantine to help flatten the curve.

Folks can get a closer look and/or make fun of the book HERE
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Collector Darkseid_of_town private msg quote post Address this user
Quote:
Originally Posted by EbaySeller
Quote:
Originally Posted by DavidM
To many, in your area of the country it may be better. I hope so, but don’t discount what it’s like where I live


@DavidM I think you just said the magic words there, "in your area of the country". But it's a really, really big country and we don't all live in the same area.
of course the virus originated in China, is worldwide, on each and every continent, and did so in remarkably short time, but somehow, some people think that living in a different state is protection. I really struggle to understand the insidious lack of logic in it.
Wouldnt it seem prudent and likely that once everything is opened up again...and trains, planes, and trucks begin moving all over the country that states will mean precisely zero?
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Collector Darkseid_of_town private msg quote post Address this user
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tedsaid
Quote:
Originally Posted by GanaSoth
But that video is pretty damning.

You realize, she's not saying we want to infect more people, right? She's saying there hasn't been enough to ensure herd immunity. It's a statement of fact, not a goal to achieve.
Glad someone else got her meaning and understands the science, once more.
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Collector Darkseid_of_town private msg quote post Address this user
Quote:
Originally Posted by DavidM
To many, in your area of the country it may be better. I hope so, but don’t discount what it’s like where I live. My wife works in a hospital that has a lot of covid-19 patients. She comes home every night exhausted both mentally and physically. There are still over 100 patients on ventilators, and that doesn’t count the ones who are just positive and sick. The hospital is full of them. She can’t take much more of this.

There are many health care workers in her hospital that tested positive, got sick, and are called back into work. They are burned out, and short staffed.

I wish all the people complaining about this could work with her for one day to see what it’s like. You really can’t imagine it.
Thanks for joining the forum and welcome ! I see you already met our resident covid kids (since people think name calling is necessary)
Tell your wife thanks for her service to our country and its people when she was most needed. I am sorry for and apologize for those willing to extend or demean her work and make light of the struggle that the frontline workers are dealing with.She sounds like an amazing woman.
I could make some great claim to medical knowledge since my mother and grandmother were both nurses their entire lives as well or because I once dated a girl who was a candy striper, or because I watched some episodes of the walking dead, but at the end of the day I think we are all best served if people would let the experts, like Fauci and Birx make the best recommendations, implement those, and stop thinking that because we have had time to run through every episode of Mash we are all medical doctors
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Collector Darkseid_of_town private msg quote post Address this user
Meantime while some make light of the virus in New York, here is the reality



https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/we-ran-out-of-space-bodies-pile-up-as-ny-struggles-to-bury-its-dead/ar-BB13r9Qw?ocid=spartandhp

a few quotes...."and others have used forklifts to transfer piles of corpses into makeshift mobile morgues. So many people have been dying at home that the medical examiner's office has turned to teams of soldiers working around the clock to pick them up."

"The scale of the problem was brought into sharp relief on Wednesday afternoon, when the police found dozens of decomposing bodies stashed inside two trucks outside a funeral home on Utica Avenue in Brooklyn."

"Anticipating the surge, officials in New York relaxed restrictions on city crematories in late March, allowing them to work around the clock. Each has recently been running at double its capacity. None, however, were accepting new appointments until well into May."

"In March and April, the recovery teams picked up 4,729 bodies, more than double the number for the same period last year. Some survivors have reported waiting hours in the presence of the dead for the units to arrive."
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Rock, Paper, Scissors, Lizard, Spock Tedsaid private msg quote post Address this user
Quote:
Originally Posted by EbaySeller
Yes, the original models with Social Distancing started at approx 2 million fatalities (US) before finally settling down around 75,000.

No, that's not true. The model that showed 2.2 million deaths in the US was the "unchecked" version: no social distancing, no testing and contract tracing, no vaccine or therapeutics. It was developed in the UK, the "Imperial College" model. And 2.2 million was the worst-case scenario, the one that finally convinced the US leadership to action.

From the study: "In the (unlikely) absence of any control measures or spontaneous changes in individual behaviour, we would expect a peak in mortality (daily deaths) to occur after approximately 3 months (Figure 1A). In such scenarios, given an estimated R0 of 2.4, we predict 81% of the GB and US populations would be infected over the course of the epidemic. Epidemic timings are approximate given the limitations of surveillance data in both countries: The epidemic is predicted to be broader in the US than in GB and to peak slightly later. This is due to the larger geographic scale of the US, resulting in more distinct localised epidemics across states (Figure 1B) than seen across GB. The higher peak in mortality in GB 16 March 2020 Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team is due to the smaller size of the country and its older population compared with the US. In total, in an unmitigated epidemic, we would predict approximately 510,000 deaths in GB and 2.2 million in the US, not accounting for the potential negative effects of health systems being overwhelmed on mortality."

No changes in behavior at all, no mitigation strategies, etc.

Honestly, I don't know why anyone who read about this study would think it was a prediction WITH social distancing. Seriously, what are you reading / watching that lies so blatantly to you? Whomever it is, they literally fictionalized the basis for this study. Did you not think to check for yourself?

Maybe you should wonder about the motives of a person who would do that to you? I wonder what on earth their agenda could be, given all that. Just to divide the country? Is it Russian trolls and Chinese bots? It's so annoying that people like that exist, and are widely listened to.
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