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THE ONE AND ONLY CORONAVIRUS THREAD ALLOWED11555

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Collector Darkseid_of_town private msg quote post Address this user
Quote:
Originally Posted by EbaySeller
Quote:
Originally Posted by etapi65
Officially hit 3.2% mortality rate in the US.


This is not a mortality rate. This is a death rate among those who were sick enough to receive the test and got a positive diagnosis. The mortality rate would have to include the infected who did not seek, or did not receive a test.

The death rate may well rise to over 5% as the diagnosis curve peaks and turns downward. The Mortality rate will have to wait until we can test large amounts of undiagnosed people for residual signs of the virus.
But by this same argument then shouldn't a moratality rate also include the hundreds that die of secondary causes that were inflamed by the virus and went undiagnosed as well?With an overwhelmed medical system I am fairly certain there are elderly people who are dying that are assumed natural or secondary causes and are never checked either.
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Why just the women? I like bears. Gaard private msg quote post Address this user
re: face mask

Why pleated?
Post 579 IP   flag post
Collector doog private msg quote post Address this user
Quote:
Originally Posted by Darkseid_of_town
Quote:
Originally Posted by EbaySeller
Quote:
Originally Posted by etapi65
Officially hit 3.2% mortality rate in the US.


This is not a mortality rate. This is a death rate among those who were sick enough to receive the test and got a positive diagnosis. The mortality rate would have to include the infected who did not seek, or did not receive a test.

The death rate may well rise to over 5% as the diagnosis curve peaks and turns downward. The Mortality rate will have to wait until we can test large amounts of undiagnosed people for residual signs of the virus.
But by this same argument then shouldn't a moratality rate also include the hundreds that die of secondary causes that were inflamed by the virus and went undiagnosed as well?With an overwhelmed medical system I am fairly certain there are elderly people who are dying that are assumed natural or secondary causes and are never checked either.

That is true. My friends mom was swabbed after she deceased as the internist suspected she had the virus. It came back positive and her family members wound up with it. Had he not swabbed, she never would have been counted as a virus death. No doubt the number is much higher than reported.
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Collector etapi65 private msg quote post Address this user
Yeah, it should be understood that the stats are based on reporting. post-analysis will take months, if not years, to determine the "real" figures. So just making up numbers, like 5% serves no purpose. We're now being told that up to 50% are asymptomatic, so should we just make-up a number for that too? Wouldn't that drive down mortality rate? Absolutely, but we don't have those numbers. I'm not into conjecture on something that has, quite literally, no basis in known facts. These are unknown quantities.

Based on the actual data, available right now, we've hit 3.2%.
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Collector etapi65 private msg quote post Address this user
Quote:
Originally Posted by etapi65

I should have looked at more days instead of only the second. So the site has updated and april 2nd numbers were 13 above the projected middle line for this model. We exceeded the middle line by 1.2%. But the model has been projected to show a decrease in total deaths. This is likely due to NY taking a positive turn, but is it accurately depicting the potential for new hotspots? I assume it is and we can have some hope. April 3 to April 4th, however is the steepest part of this curve... Lets record some numbers for the next few days and random days until the peak.
April 5 2020- 1166-1745-2775
april 6 2020- 1255-1967-3208
april 7 2020- 1387-2140-3475
april 8 2020- 1364-2348-4246
april 9 2020- 1422-2680-4581
april 10 2020- 1325-2680-5637
april 12 2020- 1422-2821-5869
april 14 2020- 1264-3067-8046
april 16 2020 (presumed peak for the country, before an actual decline begins; though individual states may vary: Florida is not expected until mid May)1232-3130-7703


update on this since we have 3 days of reported numbers
April 5 2020 1210 (close to lower boundary)
april 6 2020 1160 (below lower boundary)
april 7 2020 1943 (near middle line estimate)

We're running, consistently, below the most-likely scenario. This could be a matter of timing (trying to actually time a death), or, this could be real progress in treatment, or it could be that treatment is extending life and therefore we're going to have some monster days....
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Collector Drogio private msg quote post Address this user
Quote:
Originally Posted by etapi65
John Prine has succumbed. After seeming to recover completely last week, the damage to his body was too extensive. RIP. https://www.rollingstone.com/music/music-country/john-prine-obit-253684/?fbclid=IwAR0ieHxfKZRR42mws-RMhngm0NLzy-lf22Xwd-sdIpRu7QVuxTkaotSSu00


I don’t see anything about “seeming to recover” in the article. He was always in intensive care through out and was stablized, but then took a turn.

Nevertheless there have been reports of people seemingly on the path to recovery, then taking a sudden turn for the worse and dying hours later. As if the body makes one last All-or-nothing effort to rid itself, only to run out of steam and become overwhelmed in the end.

Terrible.
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Collector etapi65 private msg quote post Address this user
His wife had just posted to social media that he was recovered and being released, maybe two days ago? But, you're right, I definitely did not state that accurately.
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Forum Crier OGJackster private msg quote post Address this user
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gaard
re: face mask

Why pleated?


To form fit to the contour of the face better and for a better seal would be my guess.
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Moderator Jesse_O private msg quote post Address this user
Himalayans visible for the first time in 30 years as pollution levels in India drops.

Before:




After:


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Collector Darkseid_of_town private msg quote post Address this user
Makes you wonder if we are the virus
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If the viagra is working you should be well over a 9.8. xkonk private msg quote post Address this user
Today the DOD started requiring masks for people working on DOD property who can't social distance (heard about through my company, doesn't directly apply to me). NJ is also going to mandate masks in public starting Friday. On the other hand, WHO is saying you don't need one if you're healthy. The CDC is obviously still on the masks-for-everyone train. I wonder why the WHO is the odd man out.
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Thank you sir. May I have another? Siggy private msg quote post Address this user
I was informed today our Corp big-wigs are giving us a 10% pay increase during the duration of the "Stay Home" order. That makes leaving the house a bit easier. Hopefully more businesses are doing this.
Obviously they see our future being busier than previous forecasts suggested- an unfortunate result of current events.
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CBCS Boomhauer HeinzDad private msg quote post Address this user
Quote:
Originally Posted by Siggy
I was informed today our Corp big-wigs are giving us a 10% pay increase during the duration of the "Stay Home" order. That makes leaving the house a bit easier. Hopefully more businesses are doing this.
Obviously they see our future being busier than previous forecasts suggested- an unfortunate result of current events.
I read an article that sounds like this today. It was written by a Domino’s driver. They pointed out that Domino’s is booming with stock up 30%. The workers that have to work there aren’t as lucky. 🤦‍♂️. Call pizza chains whatever you want as far as importance but the people are clearly putting themselves in harms way.
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Moderator Jesse_O private msg quote post Address this user
It's from Wisconsin, but it's still funny.

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Thank you sir. May I have another? Siggy private msg quote post Address this user
Quote:
Originally Posted by HeinzDad
Quote:
Originally Posted by Siggy
I was informed today our Corp big-wigs are giving us a 10% pay increase during the duration of the "Stay Home" order. That makes leaving the house a bit easier. Hopefully more businesses are doing this.
Obviously they see our future being busier than previous forecasts suggested- an unfortunate result of current events.
I read an article that sounds like this today. It was written by a Domino’s driver. They pointed out that Domino’s is booming with stock up 30%. The workers that have to work there aren’t as lucky. 🤦‍♂️. Call pizza chains whatever you want as far as importance but the people are clearly putting themselves in harms way.

Yeah, the importance of pizza and the like is tricky. The government can't really pick one to stay open and tell the rest to close, so there's the risk of spreading the virus to every customer.

We make X-Ray film for digital imagers, and I suspect our customers are using up their inventory like never before. We just hope it doesn't turn out that we're making it for ourselves and our families as a result of continued operation.
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CBCS Boomhauer HeinzDad private msg quote post Address this user
I totally got ya, that’s why I like to refer to the following word in quotations any time I use it, “essential”.
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I bought a meat grinder on amazon for $60 and it's changed my life. kaptainmyke private msg quote post Address this user
Quote:
Originally Posted by HeinzDad
Call pizza chains whatever you want as far as importance but the people are clearly putting themselves in harms way.


My son is autistic and he only eats Papa Johns thin crust cheese pizza or McDonalds fries. Been fighting him for 10 years over it and will never change or he will starve to death and become lethargic.

Not everything is as it seems to most people. Just saying.
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Moderator Jesse_O private msg quote post Address this user
Here are four selected paragraphs in a NY Times article on food banks and hunger in America right now.

"In Omaha, a food pantry that typically serves as few as 100 people saw 900 show up on a single day. In Jonesboro, Ark., after a powerful tornado struck, a food bank received less than half the donations it expected because nervous families held on to what they had. And in Washington State and Louisiana, the National Guard has been called in to help pack food boxes and ensure that the distributions run smoothly.

Demand for food assistance is rising at an extraordinary rate, just as the nation’s food banks are being struck by shortages of both donated food and volunteer workers.



At exactly the moment that more Americans find themselves turning to food charities, the charities are facing shortages of their own. They rely on a volunteer labor force, one that skews heavily toward retirees. Across the country, older volunteers are sheltering at home for their own health and safety — sometimes by choice, and sometimes at the government’s direction.

Perhaps more alarmingly, many of the organizations that typically donate large volumes of food have themselves shut down. Restaurants, hotels and casinos have closed across the country. And grocery stores, which ordinarily share unsold inventory that is approaching its best-by date, have less to donate because their worried customers have been stripping so many shelves bare."
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Thank you sir. May I have another? Siggy private msg quote post Address this user
Quote:
Originally Posted by kaptainmyke
Quote:
Originally Posted by HeinzDad
Call pizza chains whatever you want as far as importance but the people are clearly putting themselves in harms way.


My son is autistic and he only eats Papa Johns thin crust cheese pizza or McDonalds fries. Been fighting him for 10 years over it and will never change or he will starve to death and become lethargic.

Not everything is as it seems to most people. Just saying.


Fixed.
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CBCS Boomhauer HeinzDad private msg quote post Address this user
Yeah I said that. I thought I was pretty clear in my interpretation of their importance. I guess not.
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Collector etapi65 private msg quote post Address this user
https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/1812248/?fbclid=IwAR2cb058AfmWXvmxjHEXrtVzdsqDU9RFpi1EcUszJ-dxexT7SDZjXWkivLM
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Collector willieCPA4646 private msg quote post Address this user
Todd McFarlane has an Interview in FORBES about the current (or lack of current) state of comics:clickable text

‘We Can’t Just Sit Here And Do Nothing!’
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Collector Drogio private msg quote post Address this user
Quote:
Originally Posted by Darkseid_of_town
Makes you wonder if we are the virus


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Collector Drogio private msg quote post Address this user
Quote:
Originally Posted by Drogio
The first graph takes the average deaths over 3 days, then compares that to the average 3 days prior. The reason I did an average is because I think the day to day numbers sometimes have anomalies, and we’re really interested in long term trends.





The second graph is the same, but just confirmed cases. This one is a little more suspect as testing is recently very limited to those with either severe symptoms or “privileged” individuals.





So what does this mean? It supports we are trending very well with Italy, and 2 weeks behind. The very situation we were hoping to avoid.

We’re also on par with Germany and about a week behind Spain. I forgot to add France, but a quick look and their curve is nearly identical to Spain.

If extrapolate the number of deaths and cases out 2 weeks with Italy’s curve we will see the death total reach 50,000 by 4/19. At that point we will hit a peak of 3,500 deaths per day, then start to trend downward.

From there assuming trend follows South Korea, which is assuming we at the peak and starting to bend the curve (they are at least a month out ahead of us) by mid May we will be at 90,000 deaths and 1.35 million confirmed cases. And that’s not the end....there will still be 1000 deaths reported per day but declining, and see us hit 100,000 deaths at around June 1st.

I’ll update this every few days assuming I’m healthy to see how it follows actuals.


Update








So what I can say after 6 days is outlook is slightly better, trending in the right direction.

By my charts the peak deaths will be 3000 (average over 3 days) on or about 4/17 and about 40,000 total at that point (vice 3500 & 50k before).

Mid May is 80k deaths (vice 90k) and 90k by end of May (vice 100k).

So I’d expect if the bending trending (ha, that rhymes!) continues it’ll get better, but we’re still talking triple the deaths we have now by end of May. Still boggles the mind and reason not to rush back.

Still 2 weeks out from Italy it appears...watch what they do closely as far as returning to “normal.” Their peak was 2 weeks ago (900 deaths) and they’re still seeing over 500.
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Leftover Sundae Gnus CatmanAmerica private msg quote post Address this user
My greatest concern for fellow citizens ...as my wife and I follow our own council which may differ from the drummer others queue up behind... is that the country will open for business too early and we’ll see a second wave of Covid-19 infections with an even higher mortality rate. The good news is that we seem to be making headway through social distancing and stay at home orders.

It’s understandable that concerned economists and businesses desperately want to open the country back up in an effort to reverse the recessionary trend. However, if the cure for business woes reverses the progress our medical community has made flattening the curve of hospitalized cases, we’ll be in for a much longer, deadlier pandemic and an even worse economy.

Right now, the most important thing ...from my perspective... is listening to sound advice from trusted medical professionals. Everything else is white noise.
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Collector Darkseid_of_town private msg quote post Address this user
And even worse, this virus may return each cold season much like the flu unless a vaccine is found or we eventually acquire a herd immunity sufficient to stop it
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Moderator Jesse_O private msg quote post Address this user
Stimulus checks on the way - Forbes article.

Tldr - If you did electronic deposits on your tax returns and are eligible, or receive social security benefits electronically, you should get your check by April 17th. They started sending them today.
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Collector Darkseid_of_town private msg quote post Address this user
Bring on the comic grails...oops I meant stimulus checks
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