Coronavirus - tracking the numbers.11505
 Collector
|
poka private msg quote post Address this user | |
| @Tedsaid @etapi65 you are saying it better than i can | ||
| Post 26 • IP flag post | ||
|
Collector
|
poka private msg quote post Address this user | |
Quote:Originally Posted by Darkseid_of_town https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3076323/third-coronavirus-cases-may-be-silent-carriers-classified |
||
| Post 27 • IP flag post | ||
 Rock, Paper, Scissors, Lizard, Spock
|
Tedsaid private msg quote post Address this user | |
| The 538 page is interesting. One expert is quoted: "Andrew Lover, an epidemiologist from the University of Massachusetts who took the survey, said his estimates were 'semi-quantitative' and based on the virus’s progression in other countries. 'The doubling times have been 5-8 days most places.' " My projections and numbers are based on the hypothesis that, in the US, both infected and deceased are doubling every three days. Now, even I thought that was high, but so far the numbers are being borne out. And that could be because, concurrently, the amount of testing is accelerating in the US daily. Anyway, it appears the predicted numbers in the 538 article about March 29th are already too low. Currently, there are 41,708 cases in the US (from Johns Hopkins), and my "double every three days" numbers say there will be 160,000 by March 29th. |
||
| Post 28 • IP flag post | ||
 Masculinity takes a holiday.
|
EbayMafia private msg quote post Address this user | |
Quote:Originally Posted by Tedsaid I think the doubling will come less often as the base number grows. Looks like a fairly consistent 7,000 to 8,000 per day in the US at the moment. I've heard the positive rate on tests is approx 10% which would indicate about 75,000 test currently being done daily. Of course they are only testing people who show symptoms or have at-risk situations but I'm guessing that 10% rate would go up if all testing were done in NY at the moment. |
||
| Post 29 • IP flag post | ||
|
Collector
|
poka private msg quote post Address this user | |
| https://www.scmp.com/news/china/article/3076514/coronavirus-italy-has-brief-glimpse-hope-new-cases-drop-five-day-low | ||
| Post 30 • IP flag post | ||
 Collector
|
Darkseid_of_town private msg quote post Address this user | |
Quote:Originally Posted by etapi65I think that is valid to a degree for sure...definitely...the rate might have some correction yes. Will it be as extreme as being suggested, placing it at 1 percent, no. Also, while you are correct that people now sick enough to die will be tested that isn't the case as Ted illustrated above, meaning some will die without being classified as virus victims.In the more medical equipped countries the cause of death might then be adjusted properly, but countries like south Africa, Iran, and other places that are being overwhelmed or stand to as the days progress will likely see a lot of dead that are never identified as virus causes. If and when this hits areas like south Africa, the numbers will be grim...and each place that is similar will have its price to bear on the final numbers. The percentage rate might prove lower for developed countries like the US...but I still find it unrealistic that they would drop enough to allow 1 percent... Also thanks for adding the addditonal information Etapi and Tedsaid! frightening world out there for sure |
||
| Post 31 • IP flag post | ||
|
Collector
|
Darkseid_of_town private msg quote post Address this user | |
Quote:Originally Posted by EbaySelleryes eventually the base curve will begin to flatten, but people dont seem to realize a second wave is highly likely towards the end of the year according to the professionals. |
||
| Post 32 • IP flag post | ||
|
Collector
|
Darkseid_of_town private msg quote post Address this user | |
Quote:Originally Posted by pokaI took the time to read through the information provided, I saw nothing to suggest or support a third strain of the virus...but rather they appear to be stating that carriers themselves classify into three separate groups...if I understood correctly and did not miss the link or place within the article where something additional might have been placed. |
||
| Post 33 • IP flag post | ||
 Collector
|
moodswing private msg quote post Address this user | |
| Any chance we can get all these corona virus threads put into 1 place? | ||
| Post 34 • IP flag post | ||
|
Masculinity takes a holiday.
|
EbayMafia private msg quote post Address this user | |
Quote:Originally Posted by Darkseid_of_town Aren't the protocols for doing these estimating models already established from previous viruses including H1N1? Dead people typically get autopsies or evaluations, particularly those who die of potential virus related illness in these times. I don't think there's a big number of "hidden" CV dead, and I really doubt that the H1N1 post-crises modeling assumed a number of unrecognized fatalities that mirrored the recognized fatalities rate. I don't have this information but I suspect the post-crises extrapolation models look something like: Infection rate = Diagnosed x 15 where 600,000 diagnosed = 9 million assumed infected Death rate = Recognized x 2 where 18,000 recognzed = 36,000 assumed fatalities When I offered to let you support your 3% number with a bet, you started dancing and got all slippery with how we would measure or define results. If you don't really believe it yourself, I do wonder why you keep putting it out there. |
||
| Post 35 • IP flag post | ||
 Collector
|
Drogio private msg quote post Address this user | |
Quote:Originally Posted by poka Since it takes about 7-14 days for the virus to appear, and it’s been about that long since Italy shut down the country, I’d have to believe it is finally working (flattening the curve) and these extreme measures were taking here in the US are going to show promise...but not for about 10-15 more Days which is going to be a very tense and scary time. |
||
| Post 36 • IP flag post | ||
|
Collector
|
Darkseid_of_town private msg quote post Address this user | |
Quote:Originally Posted by EbaySellerNoone got slippery, knock it off. I said and I will say again.....places like Africa with less than ideal circumstances for medical help, and establishing causes of death aren't likely to provide the most accurate results are they? If most places cannot even test the living, how many countries do you think it likely wont be able to do the testing for those who die? H1N1 did not suffer from a national cover up for weeks like the corona virus did with the Chinese did it? It is well documented within the science community that the Chinese in fact did list many of the deaths as the secondary cause to try and prevent a panic. You may doubt what you like...even when it disagrees with facts, but that's really you being "slippery" isn't it? Just for discussions sake have you given a slight thought what happens when this thing blows out of control in the African continent? The potential death toll there could be staggering....given the lack of medical supply and support. Then what? It will make Italy look like a sunday stroll.... so for your little bet are you considering all the continents and potentials? With your bet are you allowing for a second wave projected to hit later in the year? Do the death tolls combine for each country vs total cases from both waves knowing that casualities from the first wave when the world wasn't preparered and there were far less previously infected vs the second wave where there will be greater resistance due to natural immunization? What I am saing and will keep repeating at that all in, once this thing runs its toll, the death toll will be higher than people are allowing ...and likely in excess of 3 percent total, combined all in....allowing for the much higher percentage in Italy, and other undeveloped countries. Finally, its anyone's right to post what they think and understand, so perhaps telling me what I can or cant isn't the best idea you know? |
||
| Post 37 • IP flag post | ||
|
Rock, Paper, Scissors, Lizard, Spock
|
Tedsaid private msg quote post Address this user | |
Quote:Originally Posted by moodswing That was my fault. I created a new thread to just track the numbers, and for posts related to the numbers, the science, the latest world-wide and national status of just the disease. (As opposed to all the local news, how the comic book world is handling it, politics, etc.) But it has kind of morphed into just a second virus thread. I would recommend going back to the other one if you want to talk about anything that isn't epidemiological in nature. |
||
| Post 38 • IP flag post | ||
|
Collector
|
Darkseid_of_town private msg quote post Address this user | |
| Appreciate the thread Ted, thanks for providing it. | ||
| Post 39 • IP flag post | ||
|
Rock, Paper, Scissors, Lizard, Spock
|
Tedsaid private msg quote post Address this user | |
Quote:Originally Posted by Darkseid_of_town I tend to think Africa in general will fair better than any other continent. The average age is lower, the density is lower (except maybe for Australia, which is really concentrated along the coasts, mostly.) I don't know for sure, of course, but that is just my hunch ... they will fair better for many of the same reasons they are lagging behind already. But maybe it's just a seasonal thing? The equator cuts Africa in half, so it's pretty warm there all year round. And the southern part is in late summer/ early fall. |
||
| Post 40 • IP flag post | ||
|
Collector
|
Darkseid_of_town private msg quote post Address this user | |
| I was thinking more about the number of people there with immunity deficiency via aids etc....which the WHO has already pointed at a few times in concern. | ||
| Post 41 • IP flag post | ||
 If the viagra is working you should be well over a 9.8.
|
xkonk private msg quote post Address this user | |
| @Tedsaid the 538 article tries to point out the ranges, obviously. The 20k number for Sunday is the average. It probably isn't quite right, but if that ends up being low then I would guess that you should go to the higher range on the other predictions as well. Like instead of 200k deaths, maybe it's closer to 1 million. | ||
| Post 42 • IP flag post | ||
|
Rock, Paper, Scissors, Lizard, Spock
|
Tedsaid private msg quote post Address this user | |
| Monday night update. To recap, last Tuesday I pointed out that preliminary evidence shows the number of infected in the US doubles every three days. I put down what the numbers were then (between 9:00 pm and 9:30 pm). The prediction was: ~13,000 by Friday night, and 100,000 by April 1st. We blew by those numbers a day early, and I had to reset the baseline on Friday. Here is the progression: Tuesday (~9:00 pm): Johns Hopkins University: 6362 Worldometer: 6468 Wednesday (9.30 pm): Johns Hopkins University: 7786 Worldometer: 9301 Thursday (9:45): Johns Hopkins University: 13,678 Worldometer: 13,847 Friday (9:30): Johns Hopkins University: 19,285 Worldometer: 19,573 Saturday (9:30): Johns Hopkins University: 25,493 Worldometer: 26,685 Sunday (9:30): Johns Hopkins University: 33,276 Worldometer: 33,546 Monday (9:30): Johns Hopkins University: 43,901 Worldometer: 43,734 I'll stick with the "doubling every three days" hypothesis, but reset the baseline with Friday's numbers. Call it 20,000. That means by Monday night it should be 40,000, and 80,000 on Wednesday night. And the night of April 1st, instead of 100,000, the prediction is now 320,000. After three days, we are still on track with those numbers, just a little high today. I'm also tracking mortality, which I started on Thursday. Here are those numbers. Thursday as of 9:43 pm: 200 dead in the US (Johns Hopkins) As of 8:15 pm: 209 dead in the US (Worldometer) Friday as of 9:13 pm: 249 dead in the US (Johns Hopkins) As of 9:25 pm: 262 dead in the US (Worldometer) Saturday as of 9:13 pm: 307 dead in the US (Johns Hopkins) As of 9:25 pm: 340 dead in the US (Worldometer) Sunday as of 9:13 pm: 417 dead in the US (JH) As of 9:03 pm: 419 dead in the US (Worldometer) Monday as of 9:13 pm: 557 dead in the US (JH) As of 9:21 pm: 553 dead in the US (Worldometer) Taking 200 as the start number, that would be 400 by Sunday night (passed it), 800 on Wednesday night, and 3200 by March 31st, assuming a doubling every three days. We are slightly ahead of our projections here, too. Good news is, testing the last day has hit 65,000 in one day. That's fantastic, that it has grown so much. We really need more testing. |
||
| Post 43 • IP flag post | ||
|
Rock, Paper, Scissors, Lizard, Spock
|
Tedsaid private msg quote post Address this user | |
Quote:Originally Posted by EbaySeller I don't think that will work. The "final" numbers will never be certain, only a range, for a couple reasons. The mortality rate is MUCH higher if hospitals are overrun; there are two main strains, and their may be more, with different mortality rates; we are getting better at both tracking infected with tests, and assigning mortality to the right disease, but were not good at that originally (and this may still differ by country and various conventions); and, we may develop partial immunity (with a vaccine) or partial treatment, either of which will reduce mortality. Also, we are likely getting better at treating patients as we learn more. No, I don't think we will ever have a agreed-upon number for mortality for this. The history books will use a pretty wide range, I imagine. |
||
| Post 44 • IP flag post | ||
|
Rock, Paper, Scissors, Lizard, Spock
|
Tedsaid private msg quote post Address this user | |
Quote:Originally Posted by xkonk Well, they are already too low, was my point. The numbers they predicted are for this coming Sunday, not yesterday: 20,000. But that's six days away and we are already past 40,000. My "double every three days" projection for this Sunday is 160,000, and we are on track for that, or just a tad over. But maybe I'm misunderstanding your point? I thought the 538 article wasn't very clear as to: should we multiply that projection by some number, that reflects better (more) testing? They make the case early on that most infections are not being caught for lack of testing, but they don't indicate how I should adjust the numbers now, given that we are doing a better and better job every day of testing. |
||
| Post 45 • IP flag post | ||
|
Masculinity takes a holiday.
|
EbayMafia private msg quote post Address this user | |
Quote:Originally Posted by Darkseid_of_town Fair enough, I'm never going to try to predict what might kill people in Africa this week. I'm really referring to the US and similarly situated countries. Last week @Tedsaid posted a link for H1N1 showing a 1 year US infection number of 61,000,000 and US Death total of 12,000. I don't think any of us believe there were actually 61,000,000 diagnosis, but it was an estimated number. But we all assumed the methodology for arriving at those numbers was sound. What is frustrating me is I can find no data so far on the true number of diagnosis. Every site I go to says the same thing..."estimated 61 million". I would like to know the true diagnosis number so I can figure out the multiple they used for estimating infections. I suspect a similar number will have to be used in this case. |
||
| Post 46 • IP flag post | ||
|
Collector
|
Darkseid_of_town private msg quote post Address this user | |
| I will try and find a science paper that gives figures or methods if I can for you ebayseller...I will look | ||
| Post 47 • IP flag post | ||
|
Collector
|
Darkseid_of_town private msg quote post Address this user | |
| See if this gives you the answers you want @ H1N1 …..link https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2765289/ |
||
| Post 48 • IP flag post | ||
|
Collector
|
Darkseid_of_town private msg quote post Address this user | |
| This from the CDC archives gives quite a bit about H1N1 https://www.cdc.gov/h1n1flu/estimates/April_March_13.htm this one seems to have everything you are wanting |
||
| Post 49 • IP flag post | ||
 I'd like to say I still turned out alright, but that would be a lie.
|
flanders private msg quote post Address this user | |
| @EbaySeller this isn't much better but it gives the high range at close to 89 million cases for H1N1 in the U.S. only, with a high range of around 19,000 deaths. There were at least 575,400 deaths worldwide between 2009 and 2010 due to H1N1: clickable text https://www.verywellhealth.com/what-is-h1n1-swine-flu-770496 With H1N1, 87% of deaths were to those 65 years and younger. Seeing as how I was part of the highest risk demographic at the time between 2009-10 I can tell you I did not change my habits whatsoever. I was actually unemployed throughout all of 2009 after being laid off in 2008 and if anything I was drinking and going out more with no concern about the swine flu. I'd like to say that this is due to the fact that there was relatively no media coverage about the amount of cases and deaths at the time, but maybe me and every single person I know was just an idiot. Two of my friends even had the swine flu and we were making fun of them with no concern that they might die as a result. I'm not sure what both the media and the Obama Administration were doing at the time. Maybe they were more focused on starting the recovery process from the recession and believed that having a similar response to COVID-19 would've been more detrimental to the country and cost many more lives. |
||
| Post 50 • IP flag post | ||
|
Masculinity takes a holiday.
|
EbayMafia private msg quote post Address this user | |
Quote:Originally Posted by Darkseid_of_town Thanks for the link. Looks like they used a multiple of 79 for H1N1, much higher than I would have expected. Meaning for every 1 case diagnosed they assume 79 cases went un-diagnosed...in the US. They assume the actually hospitalization rate was 2.7 to every 1 reported. This is my overall point on current death rate vs future: While the death rate has some reasonable relationship to what is being reported, we will eventually determine that the current infection rate has almost no tether whatsover to the current diagnosis number. I do want to add, I'm not looking to downplay the danger with these numbers. In fact that 79x number is pretty frightening. The idea that for every diagnosed person there could be 79 un-diagnosed people walking around. I doubt the number is there yet, but it could quickly get there without the precautions being taken. |
||
| Post 51 • IP flag post | ||
|
Masculinity takes a holiday.
|
EbayMafia private msg quote post Address this user | |
Quote:Originally Posted by flanders @flanders Thank goodness the Obama administration did not shut the country down while just starting out of the recession. When I put all the numbers together, I think the difference is that Bird Flu didn't run the risk of overwhelming the Health Care system the way Corona Virus does. Although the estimate is 61,000,000 infected, it seems that only 1 in 79 or 800,000 were sick enough to seek medical attention. The other 60,200,000 appear to be just an estimate of infected who did not seek treatment. And that was over the course of a year, so 800,000 was probably manageable. |
||
| Post 52 • IP flag post | ||
|
Collector
|
Darkseid_of_town private msg quote post Address this user | |
Quote:Originally Posted by EbaySellerYou are quite welcome ebayseller, once you told me what numbers you were wanting, finding the correct archive was simple enough for me. I did find the fact they used the figure of 79 to hold frightening repercussions if applied to this virus...imagine 79 people infected for each one we are aware of...insane. |
||
| Post 53 • IP flag post | ||
 Collector
|
Wraith private msg quote post Address this user | |
| anyone else notice that worldometer no longer tracks % of deaths for the USA closed cases. ( still does for all the other countries.) ( Its currently at 66% if do the maths ) doesnt track mild to critical cases... data coming in too fast atm ? |
||
| Post 54 • IP flag post | ||
|
I'd like to say I still turned out alright, but that would be a lie.
|
flanders private msg quote post Address this user | |
| It looks like within the next two weeks restrictions may be eased and more businesses will start to open in the U.S.. Here's a brief article about the issue's facing the country: clickable text This virus will be a threat to the world until a vaccine is discovered. Since I'm immunosuppressed I may consider relocating to a rural area in hopes that it will decrease my chances of contracting the virus until a vaccine is available. |
||
| Post 55 • IP flag post | ||
Thread locked. No more posts permitted. Return home.