Is the collectible back-issue market dependent on new comics sales?10096
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EbayMafia private msg quote post Address this user | |
| Just thinking about a debate about the future of comic books in another thread. Is it possible new comic production could shrink or die off without negatively affecting the market for collectible back issues? Isn't the value really being driven by movies and t.v. shows anyway? A decent percentage of back issue sales are slabbed books that nobody ever intends to read, so are new readers important? Is it possible that the demise of new comic production could even grow the demand for back issues? Discuss! | ||
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Darkseid_of_town private msg quote post Address this user | |
| to answer the question the best way possible..No. People get very hung up on if kids choose to buy new comics or not and if that is the entire future of our hobby, but a reality check is in order. Go to a well done convention and look around....some kids are there for sure....but much of the attendance is adults. It is adults plunking down the hundreds and thousands for key books, back issues and rare toys that keep these dealers afloat. Few dealers at cons even bother to bring new issue comics unless it is a special promotion or artist linked appearance. In addition at this imaginary con walk around and take note how much of what is being sold is new issues...how much is toys, back issues, and related merchandise like statues, models, toys and t shirts. Simple fact is a dealer has a comic sized spot on his table ..does he make more selling ten copies of Amazing spiderman 26 at 4.99 each or in that same slot having a signed Walking dead 19 he moves for 400? So yeah tell me again how new issue sales and kids are driving the hobby, thanks. Even in the shops its not kids driving the hobby and hasn't been for years.Most new comics are done with art that is more geared towards teens and adults, and the number of adult or mature line comics has expanded dramatically. Still the market grows and thrives...the internet has been here for awhile and so have social media and computer gaming etc. Some kids will find there way into the hobby and some wont....some will enter as teens and some even as adults..... I have encountered the phenomenon of shops that sell only back issues and they do quite well. In fact the gimmicks, orderings systems and methods employed by the large publishers and distributors is financially harmful to their bottom line. Far easier to buy collections as they walk through the door and rehome them at fair markups over having to buy 100 titles a month, each with 15 cover variants, all pre-ordered far before they have a chance to know if it is a viable product or not. The big onliners like MCS sell new issues yes, but you will notice in the last five years MCS sold and ended all their brick and mortar operations in favor of internet based mail order, marketing through ebay, weekly auctions and new sales as well... by far most of their effort is based around back issues and auctions. The hobby will adapt, and in fact someday all our new material may be digital, but that will never stop the hobby or the people who enjoy dressing up like thor, visitng a con and bringing home a stack of comic back issues |
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EbayMafia private msg quote post Address this user | |
Quote:Originally Posted by Darkseid_of_town Speaking of dressing up, I actually think that those who believe the comic industry is not engaging young kids are missing the forest for the trees. OK, you don't see them in the LCS buying new comics...but go to Walmart on October first and take a close look at the Halloween costumes that are being sold. Kids are probably actually more engaged than ever before. The reason they aren't buying new comics is because they don't need to. It's not just kids, the comic industry is broader and more diverse than it has ever been. |
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Darkseid_of_town private msg quote post Address this user | |
| Nevermind the sheer number of women and girls I see or know out there emulating MS marvel, dressing up like Harley or carrying their magic lasso like Wonder woman..I have met and know dozens of women and teen girls who have entered the comic book collecting fray because of recent movies and storylines … Of course next we will get to hear how empowering women is wrong and yada this or that, but I say yay for the girls, let them have their time too |
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Wraith private msg quote post Address this user | |
| There was no where near the amount of quality movies etc based on comics when I was a kid ... all I had was superfriends on Saturday morning and occasional spider man cartoon .. that and the odd gifted comic, superhero toy or colouring book as a kid was all that was required for me to be interested and have a desire to buy and read more when I got older, and had money to spend . Kids today are exposed like never before .. and probably never been more socially acceptable to talk about these characters on playgrounds . I mean I have grown women at work asking me at the coffee machine what I thought of the latest avengers as a topic of conversation I can only imagine how into it kids are getting . What happens when they start making money ? |
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Wraith private msg quote post Address this user | |
| And for the record , my yearly purchases are 99% new issues | ||
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 Suck it up, buttercup!!
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KatKomics private msg quote post Address this user | |
| New issues are still important...if only as potential IP for a streaming service!!! I still buy plenty of new books....fewer and fewer Marvel or DC though Kids though...that's a tough one....I say drop back down to cheaper paper etc and put the books in Dollar stores for maybe $2 an issue. When I go to the dollar store there are kids there and usually they get an impulse buy toy of sorts (I know my kid does!!) cause a buck or 2 is doable - $5 per issue is stupid for a parent to buy on impulse. The comic store is really designed to take comics away from kids. In my area is about 20/30 minute drive to go to a specialty shop in a city I normally don't stop in. No way for kids to just stumble upon a comic in the wild!! |
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Darkseid_of_town private msg quote post Address this user | |
Quote:Originally Posted by KatKomicsI myself think you are likely right on your comments KatKomics, but the publishers aren't likely to change that business model as long as there are ample adults plunking down eight or nine dollars a cover for five different cover variations of Carnage 1...why should they produce a product with less markup, less profit and more work? Was the market as a whole watching recently when DC comics released Detective 1000 to the market with more than a hundred shop and incentive variants of the cover? At like 9.99 apiece a completist would spend ten large on all the variants for just that one comic...let alone insuring none of them will have a long term traction for value due to the immense number of copies out there? |
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| I see some good points from everyone here. I keep coming back to the fact that the average video game console owner is about 33. This lends some weight to the comic buyers market changing, but I do think we need to get new blood in or circulation will keep dropping. I think the biggest issue I see is the books being so expensive. I don’t know about everyone else, but when I was a kid and they were 40, 50, 60 cents, you could take a flier on a book you didn’t normally read. And, you’d get unproven writers jumping on books and being given Carte Blanche to try and build sales. What bothers me now is the publishers have a quick hook so you don’t get your Frank Millers, Chris Claremont’s, etc.. Ultimately, I think the fans lose because at $4-$5 a book, I can’t just check everything out, and I’m certain a 10 year old can’t either. Having said that, the characters are stronger and more popular than ever. When I see a grandmother identify Deadpool, it’s a pretty good time to be around. |
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michaelekrupp private msg quote post Address this user | |
| I would say back issues are largely not dependent upon new issues to drive interest, at least in the golden and silver age sector to be sure. There used to be a point in time when that was true. Readers would get hooked into a long running series and find themselves trying to get all the back issues of that series. Nowadays they restart everything at issue one so often that that just doesn’t hold true anymore. As far as bringing kids back to actually buying comics, I think it would take an overhaul of the distribution system and s significant drop in prices for that to happen. | ||
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Darkseid_of_town private msg quote post Address this user | |
| I think anothe3r amusing thread would be...why do people feel so strongly the comic market will shrivel up and die if the demographic changes from children to teens and adults....or do you think todays comic books target adults and a mature audience anymore than the comics pre seduction times with their graphically violent or drug use, and bondage and headlight covers? People seem to think that because kids don't buy comics the world will end or something, but most understand it isn't kids NOW buying comics and hasn't been for quite some time. In my opinion the comic hobby as a whole is set for adjustment due to variants, slabs, gimmicks and signed etc …..but it will survive a demographics shift and has already and still thrives. |
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Jabberwookie private msg quote post Address this user | |
Quote:Originally Posted by Darkseid_of_town I agree with a lot of what you said, but I think kids are the new blood, and you'd like to see more of that coming in. As someone mentioned in another thread, the movies and tv shows are bringing them in. Whether that translates into them visiting an LCS or buying back issues on Ebay, I don't know? But, I just don't think the current comic sales model is sustainable. I may be very wrong on this, but the numbers just get lower and lower, so unless something changes, it's a trend that should continue. Now, the characters are more popular than ever. Groot was a z-lister and he's everywhere, but that does not mean kids buy Groot comics. |
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X51 private msg quote post Address this user | |
| New comics keep people coming in the store on a steady basis. If not weekly, then usually once a month. This keeps comics on people's mind. They may or may not decide to collect back issues. I do not buy new comics. The local stores rarely have any back issues that I want to buy. I have no reason to go to a store except to say hello to the owners or their employees. Back issue sales would be impacted if new comic sales died, but only because it would take comics off of people's minds. Readers are the worst gage by which to evaluate whether sales will be successful. Readers are fickle and unreliable as a customer. Collectors are reliable over the long haul. They'll but a comic they don't like just to make sure their series numbering is complete. Anything that keeps people aware of comics (i.e. TV, movies, etc.) will have a positive effect on sales, but it won't undo the negative reaction to the high price point for the product. People are more likely to buy a comic for $4 if they think it'll be worth $10 in a month. This again is why readers are a poor gage for measuring success. They don't care about the worth of the product down the road. They don't have a vested interest in the product they buy. They'll wander off from the hobby as soon as someone offers them game day ticket to a sports team they like. You might never see them again because any substitute entertainment will do. |
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 If the viagra is working you should be well over a 9.8.
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xkonk private msg quote post Address this user | |
| None of the trends here strike me as especially worrisome https://www.comichron.com/yearlycomicssales.html | ||
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X51 private msg quote post Address this user | |
Quote:Originally Posted by xkonk Except John Jackson Miller has been skewing the data for over a decade to make it look like the industry is healthier than it is. Fewer stores, fewer distributors, fewer distribution centers, more reprints (i.e. TPBs), more variants pushed to increase orders, smaller print runs, less variety, and extremely high prices. The industry is not healthier than it was 25 years ago. |
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JLS_Comics private msg quote post Address this user | |
| Today’s new issues are tomorrow’s back issues | ||
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Studley_Dudley private msg quote post Address this user | |
Quote:Originally Posted by JLS_ComicsThat's deep  |
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 Ima gonna steal this and look for some occasion to use it!
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IronMan private msg quote post Address this user | |
Quote:Originally Posted by X51 Yeah, there is just a lot of ways to look at the data. In terms of gross dollar amount, the charts linked to would suggest a steady, though not growing, market. But the bottom line is that in early/mid 1960's when I was reading comic books as a kid, the population of the USA was 189 million and Superman, Batman and Superboy were all selling over 700,000 copies a month. Every month. Poor selling comic books were close to 200,000 copies a month. Today the USA's population is a 327 million and aint NOBODY routinely publishing a comic book title that hits 200,000 copies a month. 100,000 copies a month makes a top 10 placement month after month. By the time you drop down past the top 10 circulation is typically below 70,000. Hundreds of titles are published every month that sell only 5,000-20,000 copies a month. So the publishers have gotten really good at selling a rather expensive product to a very small number of people. The real canary in the mine shaft though is the direct sales model. Publishers are selling new comics to comic book stores. Of which the number is steadily decreasing. Think about that. The movies are generating billions of dollars, publishers and creators that own rights in those properties are getting rich. But it's not helping new comic book sales all that much. It's hard to find information on ticket sales, reports are always gross dollars. But Avengers End Game probably sold around 70-75 million tickets in the USA alone. But only 50,000 people buy Avengers comic book each month. As for the OP's question, I think the answer is already in the numbers. The health of back issue sales clearly doesn't rely just on how many people regularly buy newly published comic books. Because the number of people reading new comics has already shrank drastically while value of better vintage books has increased greatly. So IDK. Maybe decades from now if comics are nearly all digital with little in the way of print books it will become a drag on vintage books. The evidence says no - but even if it happens it appears to be a very far off in the future thing. Sure, there are not a lot of 10 year old kids buying new comics (like they could afford more than one or two a week). And tens of millions of people watching comic book based movies are not buying new issues. But clearly the movies are driving interest in the key, vintage books that introduce the characters they see on screen. And while there are not a lot of 10 year olds in comic book stores, there are plenty of 20, 30 and 40 year old customers. That crowd will likely be collectors for many decades to come. |
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EbayMafia private msg quote post Address this user | |
| I guess it is entirely possible that key and semi-key back issues will maintain growing demand regardless of the new comic market; while a lack of new high-volume collectors in the industry could mean that the non-key books are more and more relegated to the dollar bin. | ||
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IronMan private msg quote post Address this user | |
Quote:Originally Posted by EbaySeller We saw just what you say happening a lot the past decade. However, to me at least that appears to have stabilized the last few years. The reason being I believe is that it's become a real guessing game on what the next key in a vintage run might be. If you sold your boring Avengers run of 40-50 to purchase a some key issue a few years ago, today you discover you just sold two key issues (43 and 48) for pennies on the dollar. I can't even begin to count the number of Black Panther, Ms Marvel and Nova first issues I've sold over the years - in NM - for $15. And Savage She-Hulk 1 was a $5 book in NM. If that book wasn't perfect it went in the dollar bin. And I don't even want to think about the Eternals. Every month it seems a new issue in the run is a must have. So anyway, my observation is the mass sell off of vintage "run" books has mostly subsided as collectors fear that a run book today might be a key book tomorrow. |
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EbayMafia private msg quote post Address this user | |
Quote:Originally Posted by IronMan You're right and with slabbing available it seems that any older book in 9.0 or above is worth keeping. about 12 years ago came across Koch Bros on Ebay selling 5 un-circulated copies of Strange Tales 138 for like $60. I only bought them because they were un-circulated and I figured with slabbing I could likely make 1 of them worth enough to cover the 5. Who knew it was a first appearance of some character I had never heard of at the time? Those times seem to be over for the most part. |
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