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For Sale/Trade: Superman #76 for your GSX #16470

Collector Darkga private msg quote post Address this user
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Originally Posted by DocBrown
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Originally Posted by Darkga
Mods you can lock this thread at 7pm EST today 6/4, so everyone get your last digs in!

I will say though that there is no such thing as truly bidding your maximum. Say if your maximum is $100. Would you really not bid $100.01 if it would win you the auction?


So make it $200. Are you willing to bid that?

There is SOME NUMBER that is the most. That number can, and does, change with circumstance, but it DOES exist, for EVERYONE.

So if you'd bid $100.01 (which you can't do on most formats), but would NOT bid $200, would you bid $150? $125? $110? $105? Somewhere in there is the "yeah, no, that's the max, and not a penny more."

Since, in proxy bidding, you have NO CLUE what the high bid actually is, you have no way to tell if your $100.01 bid would win you the auction.


Your max in this case is between $100 and $200, but even you will probably never know what your max truly is. You just know that it less than $200, but not how much less. It would be interesting to see how someone would bid on a regular auction vs a reverse auction on the same exact item.
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Collector DocBrown private msg quote post Address this user
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Originally Posted by Darkga


Your max in this case is between $100 and $200, but even you will probably never know what your max truly is. You just know that it less than $200.


So what do you bid?

You have to come up with SOME number, or you can't participate at all.

Do you see what I'm getting at, here? The number itself is irrelevant, but you know it's not X and you know it's not Y...it's X<Z<Y.

Finding Z, then, is where you have to make a decision. It's a real number, that does exist, for everyone, and CAN be found, given enough thought. You know it's more than $100. You know it's less than $200. Now just narrow it down.
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Collector Darkga private msg quote post Address this user
Quote:
Originally Posted by DocBrown
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Originally Posted by Darkga


Your max in this case is between $100 and $200, but even you will probably never know what your max truly is. You just know that it less than $200.


So what do you bid?

You have to come up with SOME number, or you can't participate at all.

Do you see what I'm getting at, here? The number itself is irrelevant, but you know it's not X and you know it's not Y...it's X<Z<Y.

Finding Z, then, is where you have to make a decision. It's a real number, that does exist, for everyone, and CAN be found, given enough thought. You know it's more than $100. You know it's less than $200. Now just narrow it down.


But if that number was say $160, I'm pretty sure most people could be convinced to go $161. That's how Heritage gets you to bid higher than eBay. With eBay you only have so much time to make that call; with Heritage you virtually have unlimited time. This causes your to convince yourself that you previous maximum was not really your maximum. By the time you realize this, you have well passed your max and you are regret zone, lol.
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Collector DocBrown private msg quote post Address this user
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Originally Posted by Darkga


When people snipe they are just guessing a number they think will win (not bidding their max), which is different than slowly watching it increase in an extended time auction like Heritage. That's why they get more money out of you on Heritage because they are getting you closer to your maximum (but never actually there).


EDIT! This is not true. Most (all?) snipers understand the mechanics of sniping, and bid the max they're willing to pay, or they lose.

That is fundamentally how sniping works, because you don't get a second chance after the listing is over.

Again...when you snipe on a countdown proxy bid auction, you bid the most you're willing to pay. Those who don't bid the most they're WILLING to pay end up angry and frustrated if they lose, because...watch me now...they were WILLING to pay more.

If you think they "get more money out of you on Heritage", I'll pull a shrewbeer and ask you to prove that claim.
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Collector DocBrown private msg quote post Address this user
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Originally Posted by Darkga
But if that number was say $160, I'm pretty sure most people could be convinced to go $161.



Ok...but not $200. Right?

So...keep going.

If you would DEFINITELY NOT pay $200 for that item, under ANY circumstances, then you need to keep going until you reach that number.

"Would I bid $161? Yes? Ok. How about $194? No? Ok. How about $167? Yes? Ok. How about $179? Yes? Ok, how about $190? No? Ok, how about $186? Ehhhhh...?"

You have now found the most you are willing to pay.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Darkga

That's how Heritage gets you to bid higher than eBay. With eBay you only have so much time to make that call.


Show me examples of Heritage "getting you to bid higher than eBay" specifically because of the auction format.

I understand that this seems counterintuitive to a lot of people. I get it. But it's true nevertheless.
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Collector DocBrown private msg quote post Address this user
Quote:
Originally Posted by DocBrown
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Originally Posted by Darkga


When people snipe they are just guessing a number they think will win (not bidding their max), which is different than slowly watching it increase in an extended time auction like Heritage. That's why they get more money out of you on Heritage because they are getting you closer to your maximum (but never actually there).


EDIT! This is not true. Most (all?) snipers understand the mechanics of sniping, and bid the max they're willing to pay, or they lose.

That is fundamentally how sniping works, because you don't get a second chance after the listing is over.

Again...when you snipe on a countdown proxy bid auction, you bid the most you're willing to pay. Those who don't bid the most they're WILLING to pay end up angry and frustrated if they lose, because...watch me now...they were WILLING to pay more.

If you think they "get more money out of you on Heritage", I'll pull a shrewbeer and ask you to prove that claim.


Look at my Lois Lane example.

FIVE SECONDS before the auction ended, it was at $78. What would someone guess would be the number that would win? $85? $100? $5,000?

There's no way to guess. All you can do is test the bid, and/or bid the most you're willing to pay...which AT LEAST FOUR DIFFERENT BIDDERS DID...and find out where it comes out.

In that case, the listing ended for more than double what the high bid was just five seconds earlier.

I didn't guess what I thought would win...I bid the most I was willing to pay...$156...and believed that would be enough. It wasn't, but it certainly wasn't the number I would have guessed the auction would end at ($167.50.)

Here's another example:

https://www.ebay.com/bfl/viewbids/163054164705?item=163054164705&rt=nc&_trksid=p2047675.l2565

It's a Weird Science Fantasy #29

In this case, there were, again, three bidders who bid in the last 6 seconds of the listing. The listing, 7 seconds before the end, stood at $258. In this case, I didn't have an EXACT number in my head, but I knew I was willing to pay more than that. $309 ended up being my number. It ended up at $356, nearly $100 more in the last 6 seconds. Those guys didn't guess what it would take to win...they bid the most they were willing to pay, and the guy who was willing to pay the most, won.

And yes, sometimes, you don't know exactly what you're willing to pay until the very last seconds. But you know what you're NOT willing to pay, and once it goes above that...very quickly this all happens, mind...you're out.

The seller didn't get shafted. That book sold for what looks like exactly what it would slab as...4.0-4.5.
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Collector DocBrown private msg quote post Address this user
Here's ANOTHER example:

https://www.ebay.com/bfl/viewbids/173311596217?item=173311596217&rt=nc&_trksid=p2047675.l2565

It's an X-Men #130 CGC 9.6.

It was sniped. The last 3 bids are snipe bids, placed in the last 5 seconds.

And yet, it sold for SUBSTANTIALLY MORE ($188) than the two copies on either side of it ($153 and $140)...and the $140 wasn't sniped. The $153 one, I can't pull up, because eBay has lots its mind.

https://www.ebay.com/itm/Uncanny-X-Men-130-CGC-9-6-1st-Appearance-of-Dazzler-/123158804533?nordt=true&rt=nc&_trksid=p2047675.l2557&nma=true&si=h27Eu9oQBRIusaPpA0bWMZnhXas%253D&orig_cvip=true
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Collector Darkga private msg quote post Address this user
We'll continue this in another thread, however the for sale portion of this thread is officially closed.
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